ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[setxweathergal64]

I haven't posted in a while. But I have a question about when the earliest would be that we might know if the shifts to the west are pretty much over. I live in the Beaumont area in Tx! And I have PTSD from a horrible evacuation during Rita. And we would be going north towards Ft Worth. I'm afraid that we could run into 1. Storms from the remnants of marco or 2. People evacuating from La with unsurity of where it's going.

I enjoy tracking storms, just the last minute stuff kills me.

[eastcoastFL]

The outflow on this is starting to look impressive, once done with the islands, if this maintains good symmetry this could bomb fast

This is the opinions of a non professional, for official info please look at NWS, NHC or NOAA products

I agree. Structurally it looks very good on IR. It appears to be growing in size and convection keeps deepening with cold cloud tops. This could be very dangerous when it reaches the gulf

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

[rigbyrigz]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros (i'M haitian btw) we got no rain no wind nothing at all what's going on ? lol

A little south of Porto Plata? I dont think you're gonna see any particularly strong wind from this event but you could be soon getting some serious rains. Be very wary of flooding. That's not something to take lightly. Is there any local radar sites near the north coast?

Sorry i Don't really know. Thank for your response though

You seem to be about 40 miles ( less than 70km) from Porto Plata, where the rain and wind are supposed to be picking up very soon, maybe in an hour or before. Maybe rain all day and 20-30 mph winds, for a few hours, then will calm down. Being inland less wind (maybe?), but flooding and whatever mountain effects should be of alert. Good Luck, best wishes!

[Blinhart]

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

Well Iberia Parish Government has already done a voluntary evacuation order for those in high risk areas and with medical problems.

[rigbyrigz]

I have a place in Pensacola we can go to. But it's next to impossible to evacuate from here. Katrina = 12 hours to Alexandria (3.75 hour drive). Gustav, 16 hours to Austin (7.5 hour drive). You need 3 days to evacuate the city which would be tomorrow or Monday. And that's when we're supposed to have Marco coming through. One of our family works at a major hospital, so she may be under some special stipulation or something. The hospital could be a shelter of last resort if we absolutely needed it, but that's kind of the last place I want to be in right now. We'll do whatever is prudent. We'd probably stay for a middle 2 or anything lower. Beyond that, that's kind of what we all need to talk about tomorrow and what we can do if they enact contraflow and prevent us from going that way.

Besides prayers and best wishes, a little math and reason suggests that the 11PM Monday night advisory/discussion and maybe the midnight model runs are somewhat likely to be the first extremely definitive forecast points for what (GOM-entering) Laura's final approach and landfall strength and location, roughly 48 hours away, will somewhat precisely be (late Wednesday).

Evacuating Tuesday, due to Marco and travel issues, obviously isn't practical. If it is going to be just calculated guesswork, and the answer is to leave, probably just as well get going on Sunday. Not a problem any of us would want to have or wish on anyone else. If there is something any of us can do to help, many here happy to assist.

Thanks for that. If we have to get out, we'll make it to Pensacola which hopefully won't have any issues.

If Pensacola is all of a sudden in the cone Monday late, just keep going to Big Bend Perry FL 3.5 hours more; we can put y'all up as needed, and welcome.

[Uptownmeow]

I have a place in Pensacola we can go to. But it's next to impossible to evacuate from here. Katrina = 12 hours to Alexandria (3.75 hour drive). Gustav, 16 hours to Austin (7.5 hour drive). You need 3 days to evacuate the city which would be tomorrow or Monday. And that's when we're supposed to have Marco coming through. One of our family works at a major hospital, so she may be under some special stipulation or something. The hospital could be a shelter of last resort if we absolutely needed it, but that's kind of the last place I want to be in right now. We'll do whatever is prudent. We'd probably stay for a middle 2 or anything lower. Beyond that, that's kind of what we all need to talk about tomorrow and what we can do if they enact contraflow and prevent us from going that way.

In a somewhat similar boat here. We’ve got somewhere a little more north in MS we could go if needed but four pets and a business run out of our house and the pandemic leaving us very very thinly stretched already. Tough calls to be made the next day or so.

[crimi481]

still expanding. Looks huge

[Steve]

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

You're big in the crosshairs if HWRF is right. All a y'all down in south Terrebonne and Lafourche would see something that hasn't hit like that since I don't know when. I think Andrew was the last major that hit down that way but @ around Morgan City. With the extreme coastal erosion since 1992, even despite the new levees and flood control, Laura according to HWRF would be historic for the cajuns.

[HurricaneEdouard]

I noticed they are predicting this to get to 90 mph now.......I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Cat 2 hurricane out of this when all is said and done. I know that it would have to intensify quickly, but I don't think a Cat 2 is off the table at this point....

I think you might be off by one or two categories, personally!

GFS, UKMET AND EURO have fallen in line with the HWRF, ICON and HMON (more intense solutions) in predicting a Category 3 to 5 hurricane (950 to 920 mb). I continue to maintain my initial prediction from when it formed: major hurricane in the Gulf. I wouldn't be too surprised if it skirts into the Caribbean between double-landfalls on Cuba, Frederic-style, either, and I suspect a centre reforming south of Hispaniola is just as likely as north, at this point!

[chaser1]

still expanding. Looks huge

Yes it is. Then, when you consider the broad surface gradient, the meso-vort having already tracked well inland, and then consider the explosive convection south of Hispaniola.... it wouldn't shock me to have a new LLC attempt to redevelop along the south coast near Haiti tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

You're big in the crosshairs if HWRF is right. All a y'all down in south Terrebonne and Lafourche would see something that hasn't hit like that since I don't know when. I think Andrew was the last major that hit down that way but @ around Morgan City. With the extreme coastal erosion since 1992, even despite the new levees and flood control, Laura according to HWRF would be historic for the cajuns.

Has there been anything recent that was major between Grand Isle and Cameron? I know Lili would have been brutal had it not unexpectedly weakened at the last minute to cat 1.

[SouthernBreeze]

Looking like the center is just barely skimming over land, so probably not be affected much by mountains?

[Hammy]

still expanding. Looks huge

Quite a difference from several days ago where it looked certain it wouldn't survive the environmental conditions. Linking the shear map from USTropics post in the Marco thread, I notice the area of light winds (PV ring?) expanding to the west so the outflow is becoming firmly established.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Looking like the center is just barely skimming over land, so probably not be affected much by mountains?

Its broad surface structure should help it maintain its intensity, as well. "The Shredder" has more of an effect on strong systems than weak systems, and between its size, structure and powerful convection blowing up south of the island, I think Laura is the ideal candidate to be barely affected by its long trek across the Greater Antilles.

[HurricaneEdouard]

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

You're big in the crosshairs if HWRF is right. All a y'all down in south Terrebonne and Lafourche would see something that hasn't hit like that since I don't know when. I think Andrew was the last major that hit down that way but @ around Morgan City. With the extreme coastal erosion since 1992, even despite the new levees and flood control, Laura according to HWRF would be historic for the cajuns.

Has there been anything recent that was major between Grand Isle and Cameron? I know Lili would have been brutal had it not unexpectedly weakened at the last minute to cat 1.

Gustav came close, but was a Cat 2 (albeit with the surge of a 3). Last major hurricane to strike between Grand Isle and Cameron was indeed Andrew in 1992.

[Steve]

No Crazy, nothing I can think of. Gustav was probably the most recent in '08 which I think was mostly a 1 (might have been classified a 2). Cindy also came up through there in '05. Other than those, Ike flooded a lot of people out in the low-lying areas near the coast. But those are the only recent hurricanes there.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

You're big in the crosshairs if HWRF is right. All a y'all down in south Terrebonne and Lafourche would see something that hasn't hit like that since I don't know when. I think Andrew was the last major that hit down that way but @ around Morgan City. With the extreme coastal erosion since 1992, even despite the new levees and flood control, Laura according to HWRF would be historic for the cajuns.

Steve, I seen it and I tell you what I was 15y old when Andrew hit. The damage was bad. Our house on lower hwy 55 took in 4ft-5ft of water. My father's quick thinking saved my childhood home. He took a hammer to the floor in 3-4 places. This prevented the house from floating away! That same property got a new levee put in after Hurricane Lili in 2002. At the time, the marsh was a good ways away. Today, the water is lined with the leeve with no marsh in see and the backyard (in front of the leeve) is more like a marsh soft ground.

If this comes to play, not only will it destroy the few homes left down there but this would most likely completely change the landscape! Not to mention all the storm riders who dont leave for storms. To be honest by the time they figure it out will be too late!

The last major cane to hit was andrew at a Cat 3. Ppl here say "well, we got leeves and new locks, we should be good. But we aint never experienced a Cat 4-5 in **my life time (im 42). Camille and besty both affected our area mostly before the leeves and locks, but they were NOT a direct hit. Dad always said Morgan City/Intercoastal City, you leave for a Cat 2 or higher. For Cat 4-5 dont expect anything left!

We making our move tomorrow morning..

[MONTEGUT_LA]

I feel you. I have never had to think about what to do, but this situation got me stressing. Most ppl down here are not worried abt either storm. They assume it will be a Cat 1 or less and we can handle that. If nhc ups one of these to major status, ppl here will be running around like a chicken with no head! It will create a total mess. I have 2 options-Texas(family) or North Louisiana (hotel) (cant afford to go any father). Both will get rain and may even flood. But staying home aint a option with major on my backdoor. So what do you do? Tomorrow Terrebonne Emergency folks going to start evac & shelter recommends after the 10a nhc update. I really want to be on the road before that!

You're big in the crosshairs if HWRF is right. All a y'all down in south Terrebonne and Lafourche would see something that hasn't hit like that since I don't know when. I think Andrew was the last major that hit down that way but @ around Morgan City. With the extreme coastal erosion since 1992, even despite the new levees and flood control, Laura according to HWRF would be historic for the cajuns.

Has there been anything recent that was major between Grand Isle and Cameron? I know Lili would have been brutal had it not unexpectedly weakened at the last minute to cat 1.

Lousiana tends to do this weird magic trick to major storms, lili being one and Gustav was another. As the storm reach coast some voodoo type stuff happens and cat4-5 land up 1-3s. Especially Central La. I cant tell you how many times we came so close. One day that magic wont save us.

Rita hit about Cameron and Terrebonne flooded. My mothers house in Montegut took in 3ft of water. and the house was already a good 2.5-3ft off the ground. Her house was raised and completed the day before Gustav 2008 evac was called. Ike flood her neighbors, but she is was now 8ft off the ground.

To be honest, I hope that voodoo magic poke its little head out and save us from these models and these storms but its 2020 and anything is on the table!

[HurricaneEdouard]

Laura is giving me Ike vibes (track-wise, anyhow; the actual synoptic pattern is quite different), in terms of initially being thought of as a threat to Florida (or possibly even a recurve east), but continuing relentlessly west into the Greater Antilles, and the model trends and forecast continuing to bend west with every run/advisory. Now the models are beginning to cluster around a Texas landfall, with Louisiana looking like the more easterly solution at this point.