ATL: LAURA - Models

[NDG]

I had forgotten how right biased the HWRF was with Isaias,

[SoupBone]

You have to go back to 12Z Friday to see the Euro with a similar landfall.

12Z Friday Euro (Not current run)

[SoupBone]

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.

Can you post the graphic for comparison?

[tolakram]

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.

Can you post the graphic for comparison?

These runs are all on pay sights as far as I know, I get mine from Weatherbell. I would not call it a Fujiwjara effect, instead marco weakens as it heads towards LA and remnants drift west. Laura coming into central LA cost around 974mb.

[SoupBone]

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.

Can you post the graphic for comparison?

These runs are all on pay sights as far as I know, I get mine from Weatherbell. I would not call it a Fujiwjara effect, instead marco weakens as it heads towards LA and remnants drift west. Laura coming into central LA cost around 974mb.

How does it compare to the 12Z Friday Euro run (posted above)? That's the last time the Euro showed a SELA landfall.

[Nederlander]

Anybody know why the GFS Para hasn’t been running?

[tolakram]

Can you post the graphic for comparison?

These runs are all on pay sights as far as I know, I get mine from Weatherbell. I would not call it a Fujiwjara effect, instead marco weakens as it heads towards LA and remnants drift west. Laura coming into central LA cost around 974mb.

How does it compare to the 12Z Friday Euro run (posted above)? That's the last time the Euro showed a SELA landfall.

Yesterdays 12Z euro (Saturday) showed an LA hit. It goes a little south, actually emerging south of Cuba for a while, then bends NW into central LA. Similar to last nights 0Z euro run except not as far west.

[SoupBone]

These runs are all on pay sights as far as I know, I get mine from Weatherbell. I would not call it a Fujiwjara effect, instead marco weakens as it heads towards LA and remnants drift west. Laura coming into central LA cost around 974mb.

How does it compare to the 12Z Friday Euro run (posted above)? That's the last time the Euro showed a SELA landfall.

Yesterdays 12Z euro (Saturday) showed an LA hit. It goes a little south, actually emerging south of Cuba for a while, then bends NW into central LA. Similar to last nights 0Z euro run except not as far west.

Thanks. That's interesting, and I wonder what the factor is that moves it either more west or mmore towards the SELA side. Another day of model runs I guess.

[aspen]

GFS, Euro, and ICON all show Laura emerging off of Cuba at 42-48 hours and rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane until landfall in 90-96 hours, with the Euro taking a longer track into Texas and the ICON taking a slightly shorter track into Louisiana.

[1900hurricane]

Here is 12Z SHIPS output.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 67 76 84 88 85 76 72 71 70 67 64
V (KT) LAND 45 51 44 40 45 41 51 60 68 72 47 33 29 28 28 28 30
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 42 43 42 43 48 55 67 77 53 35 29 28 28 28 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 17 16 9 11 4 12 12 16 20 13 30 36 60 74
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 1 -2 1 -2 -3 -2 3 4 7 3 1 -1 10
SHEAR DIR 318 325 327 330 339 353 7 296 297 266 252 231 243 236 262 261 233
SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.1 31.2 30.6 30.8 30.4 30.1 30.3 30.5 31.7 31.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 28.2 18.8
POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 175 174 173 173 173 172 172 172 173 172 172 175 147 84
ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 175 174 173 170 159 159 160 172 171 145 142 156 143 81
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.9 -51.3 -50.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 11 8 12 5 10 3 5 0
700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 56 58 60 56 57 58 56 58 60 62 60 50 39 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 19 22 24 24 19 15 14 16 17 23
850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 -3 -19 -22 3 -9 19 -7 -26 -59 -48 14 36 49 75 95
200 MB DIV 50 46 28 17 25 -11 11 36 41 28 19 33 24 44 0 -35 21
700-850 TADV 4 2 -9 -8 -12 -13 -14 -7 -1 8 -1 8 -6 28 26 -18 -46
LAND (KM) -42 51 -35 -11 30 -11 249 386 237 95 -137 -408 -638 -719 -647 -248 173
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.8 24.0 25.6 27.0 28.7 31.0 33.5 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 72.3 74.1 75.9 77.8 79.8 83.0 86.0 88.6 90.8 92.5 93.0 92.5 90.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 16 15 13 12 11 12 13 12 11 21 35 42
HEAT CONTENT 70 68 57 63 61 132 69 51 48 46 7 6 5 5 5 3 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -6. -13. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 3. 5. 4. -4. -9. -11. -8. -7. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 31. 39. 43. 40. 31. 27. 26. 25. 22. 19.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.1 72.3

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 31.3% 15.6% 12.2% 11.3% 16.3% 23.6% 29.9%
Logistic: 12.9% 27.9% 16.5% 15.2% 13.5% 28.4% 38.6% 39.9%
Bayesian: 4.0% 30.9% 9.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3.0% 5.9% 8.4%
Consensus: 8.4% 30.0% 13.8% 9.7% 8.5% 15.9% 22.7% 26.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 44 40 45 41 51 60 68 72 47 33 29 28 28 28 30
18HR AGO 45 44 37 33 38 34 44 53 61 65 40 26 22 21 21 21 23
12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 42 38 48 57 65 69 44 30 26 25 25 25 27
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 36 46 55 63 67 42 28 24 23 23 23 25
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[NDG]

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.

Can you post the graphic for comparison?

These runs are all on pay sights as far as I know, I get mine from Weatherbell. I would not call it a Fujiwjara effect, instead marco weakens as it heads towards LA and remnants drift west. Laura coming into central LA cost around 974mb.

I would call it fairly close if not.

 https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1297517884000940034

[Frank P]

GFS, Euro, and ICON all show Laura emerging off of Cuba at 42-48 hours and rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane until landfall in 90-96 hours, with the Euro taking a longer track into Texas and the ICON taking a slightly shorter track into Louisiana.

I think the 06z EURO shifted east into south central LA coastal areas... so there's that

[tolakram]

Latest model run roundup.

HWRF 6Z


HMON 6Z


GFS 6Z


Euro 0Z


Euro 6Z landfall from Weathermodels (shared under there licensing terms, minimal sharing to non commercial sites)

[Nederlander]

Tight cluster at T-4.5 days for SWLA/TXLA border

[stormlover2013]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_13.gif

Tvcn now la/tx border

[Ken711]

[Stormcenter]

Serious nail biting time coming for millions
living along the central and nw GOM.

[ronjon]

Thank goodness much more model consistency today. Looks like strong atlantic high pressure and the GA islands sparing Florida this time. At the same time, my heart goes out to the people on SE Tx/La that will probably experience a major hurricane landfall in a few days. Even the global models now dropping down into the low 950 mb range at landfall. Let's hope we don't see a CAT 4 or 5 storm out of Laura.

[FixySLN]

With Marco exceeding expectations intensity-wise, should we be on the lookout for another moderate shift east, or are we past that point? I'm selfishly thankful for the western-shift from Laura (and still thinking about you guys further west), but as I understand it, a stronger Marco would run a more northerly route, effecting the path of Laura as well. Yea?

[LSU Saint]

Biting my nails in Houston. This could be a rough one.