ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

Sally seems to be a morning girl with another bloom of convection and lower pressures for the 5 AM update.
Recon is reporting a loop in her track centered near 88 W which is a slight jog west from yesterday.

From the NHC advisory steering will be provided by "a weak mid level trough" approaching by Wednesday.
Looks like the upper level ridge still goes all the way to western Texas this morning on the west side and we still have the Atlantic TUTT on the east side.

Sally is just east of center in the 200 mb flow so the weakening last night that allowed the westward jog may be followed by some slight southern jog as she strengthens this morning. Once the dome builds further east the steering at 200 mb is more and more north until the mid level trough arrives.

So we wobble watch.

She needs to start going due north pretty quickly if she’s gonna make landfall east of Mobile. Just my opinion

No, it should turn NNE-NE prior to landfall. It is on track.

I know. I was just saying some of the models last night had it going east of mobile. It’s pretty close to the NHC track at the moment

[FLpanhandle91]

Persistent -80° tops firing in all quadrants right now. Plenty of time for her to get her act together. Best she has looked in a long time both on radar and IR.

[GCANE]

Southern eyewall coming together.
Open on the west.

[GCANE]

WV and IR showing the development of an eye feature.

[Do_For_Love]

I'm glad Sally hasn't been able to make it up to major status. What caused the weakening/plateauing in her strength?

Shes still gonna bring incredible rains though, up to 30 inches(!) in some places per the NHC. Look at how slow she is moving...

[stormhunter7]

Another large gravity wave coming off the w to sw side of the CDO ... This 1 minute imagery is pretty incredible. Sally definitely is a morning girl!

[MGC]

Sally don't look all that bad after sitting in one spot all night. Still producing bursts of convection and the hurricane it trying to close off an eyewall. This stall or crawl was well forecast, it just occurred a bit further east than expected. Hopefully up welling will cause Sally to slowly weaken as the hurricane approaches the coast.....MGC

[supercane4867]

I'm glad Sally hasn't been able to make it up to major status. What caused the weakening/plateauing in her strength?

Shes till gonna bring incredible rains though, up to 30 inches(!) in some places per the NHC. Look at how slow she is moving...

Most likely due to a combination of westerly shear, cool water upwelling, and inner core transitions.

[wxman57]

Model consensus TVCN is straight up Mobile Bay. Only another 0.3 deg west movement then NNE to the bay, arriving 5am tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

Not looking as impressive as yesterday...

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at a 3-hr radar loop with lat/lon lines plotted, it does appear as if Sally has wobbled a little northward. This does not imply it is moving or has turned north.

Yep, Recon was reporting it reaching north of 29N.....that's a drift northward.

[Chemmers]

Definitely seeing a clear eye trying to form, will be interesting to see on vs

[bella_may]

Looks like she might be about to blow up around the center

[Chemmers]

Does anyone know when the next record plane will be

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone else noticing the push back toward the storm of the core edge of the outflow about at the mouth of the MS River on IR imagery? I take it that is the shear starting to work on it.

[FLpanhandle91]

https://i.imgur.com/qSyonHY.gif
Not looking as impressive as yesterday...

Respectfully disagree with this. This is most complete eyewall she has had in her life

[Blow_Hard]

Looks like she might be about to blow up around the center

Kind of like what GFS is depicting maybe

[Do_For_Love]

Sally is standing in the "pocket" of the Gulf like a quarterback in the 1990s, lol

[NDG]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

[Do_For_Love]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

Crazy disagreement for a storm so close to landfall, no? With Laura, they pretty much nailed landfall with a consensus like 3 days out. I guess the steering currents are just much weaker here...