ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I wonder what the implications for future forecasting will be as a result of this. The formerly known shredder known as Hispanola was actually a catalyst for intensification.

I've seen this happen time and time again. I've said for years that a weaker system stands a better chance going over that island than a much stronger system does. It helps consolidate the weaker systems whereas it hurts the ones with an established core. It disrupts them and then they have a hard time recovering from it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

A hurricane that isn’t vertically stacked?

You can only go with the data you are given...there were lots of suspect readings from the plane.

[caneseddy]

Is the G-IV going to be sent out tomorrow or has that time passed?

[Nimbus]

This center has been rolling along the north coast where most of the terrain is less than 1000 ft.
The higher mountains focus the energy but the faster forward speed has brought it a lot closer to the edge of the moisture envelope.
Looks well stacked now but mid level shear from that dry air mass might put a damper on any RI attempt down the road in the Bahamas.

[sgastorm]

Is the G-IV going to be sent out tomorrow or has that time passed?

Yes it is going out every 12 hours starting Friday afternoon. The first runs with the data will be the August 1st 00Z runs.

[artist]

Is the G-IV going to be sent out tomorrow or has that time passed?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 01/2030Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL
AT 01/2000Z AND 02/0800Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSON AROUND
THE STORM FOR 02/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 01/1730Z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1289046280103223296

[bob rulz]

This season is already unreal...appropriate that 2020 looks likely to bring us a historic hurricane season in addition to everything else going on.

It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...

This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century.

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.

A bit of a tangent, but I've said for a long time that all the names should just go on a rolling basis, so the next season just picks up where the last left off, so that we don't have so many letters that are never used and other letters that are oversaturated.

[jaxfladude]

Quick thought now that this is a hurricane, worse impacts for Bahamas now just under a year after Dorian(not as strong but a bad reminder) or will the speed help to keep the worst impacts to a minimum? And what doe the track for this hurricane look like now any changes of note? or still too early and Fri pm is the time for more clarity?
so many qs but blame that on my reaction to 2020....

[EquusStorm]

Poorly stacked barely closed tropical storm moves over mountains and explodes into a hurricane. Yeah not ideal vibes this season

[floridasun78]

second hurr of season it only july

[Hurricaneman]

This season is already unreal...appropriate that 2020 looks likely to bring us a historic hurricane season in addition to everything else going on.

It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...

This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century.

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.

A bit of a tangent, but I've said for a long time that all the names should just go on a rolling basis, so the next season just picks up where the last left off, so that we don't have so many letters that are never used and other letters that are oversaturated.

It’s what the WPAC does

It now looks to be stacking up as we speak and this may be completely stacked by morning

[aspen]

I think I said a couple of weeks ago on the 2020 indicators thread that if we were to see multiple AEW-based systems in July, including more than one hurricane, it would be time to panic — somewhat as a joke because I wasn’t sure we’d get to that many.

July 31st: five named storms, three AEW-based systems, and two AEW-based hurricanes in this month. Yep, ASO is gonna be nasty.

[LAwxrgal]

This is crazy.

We wait almost a week for Isaias to develop a recognizable COC...and now after less than a day as a named entity it's a hurricane.

Welcome to 2020.

[chaser1]

Just taking a look at the latest GFS rolling in. So far it is almost a mirror image to 18z. However, Great Inagua is a good waypoint to keep an eye on. According to the GFS it looks like is has it passing north of Great Inagua. Time will tell if that actually happens.

Great point. If the storm were really tracking 305° per NHC, then yeah it would pass north or easily over Great Inagua. On the other hand these aging eyes see something closer to 280/285 perhaps? Less scientific but notable is the number "9" configuration of the system as a whole. I think this typically would denote a westward track. If Isaias manages to travel south of the Islands, that would suggest at least a little bit of a track adjustment.

[gfsperpendicular]

I think we need to revoke Hispaniola's nickname for the time being

[supercane4867]

I believe it's the first time in history that a TS intensified into a hurricane while moving over Hispanola.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289047811644850178

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is a little bit of fun for everyone to cut the tension.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/TjlWGFdUfro[/youtube]

[ConvergenceZone]

Well we know one thing for sure, the EURO completely had an EPIC FAIL on the strength of this....Models have not been handling strength of tropical systems very well at all this year..............At least the most reliable models haven't...

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not even going to try and and say the name of the hurricane. I'm just going to call it "The I Storm"