ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

We're at the point for now casting. Forget the models and watch the radar. Predictions now of storm total rainfall of 10-20 inches due to slow meandering motion next 24-36 hours. Harvey type situation without the high winds.

[Dean4Storms]

Having some wind gusts now to near 30mph here in the Destin area but so far just a steady moderate rain.

[Ubuntwo]

We're at the point for now casting. Forget the models and watch the radar. Predictions now of storm total rainfall of 10-20 inches due to slow meandering motion next 24-36 hours. Harvey type situation without the high winds.

Remember, Houston only got TS force winds in Harvey, and Beaumont was even lower. So the comparison is apt.

[stormlover2013]

We're at the point for now casting. Forget the models and watch the radar. Predictions now of storm total rainfall of 10-20 inches due to slow meandering motion next 24-36 hours. Harvey type situation without the high winds.

harvey dumped 30-60 inches of rain, don't see this being a harvey type situation.

[Dean4Storms]

Convection is trying to wrap for sure.

Btw..... Mobile Radar is back up but it will be awhile before you have loop images.

[FLpanhandle91]

Mobile radar is back.

[cheezyWXguy]

Finally seeing the towers rotate around the eye, instead of the periodic bursting pattern observed yesterday. Resumption of cat2 seems possible, as the HWRF shows.

[Stormcenter]

I wake up and still the same, it’s like
everyone is seeing Sally move here or there or
nowhere. Some see it moving wnw, north or northwest
or wherever.
The models still don’t have a clue because Sally
refuses to move when she should. What a mess.

[tiger_deF]

How much of this variation from the norm is caused by climate change, versus the basal state that would be expected in a cyclical pattern anyway?

[aspen]

Recon is on its way to Sally, so soon we shall see if the nearly completed eyewall has resulted in any intensification.

[GCANE]

Tornado Watch - Moderate Threat

SUMMARY...The tornado threat with Hurricane Sally will increase in
immediate coastal areas through the remainder of the morning. The
threat then should shift gradually northward/inland this afternoon,
as Sally's center very slowly approaches landfall, based on the
NatiSUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase along the immediate coast
of Alabama and Florida this morning as Hurricane Sally approaches. A
tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...The center of Hurricane Sally is currently located
about 100 statute miles to the south of Mobile, Alabama. Heavy bands
of rainfall surround the eye of Sally with the most notable band
located from near Gulf Shores, Alabama extending southeastward into
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this band, multiple
semi-discrete thunderstorms are ongoing and some appear to be
supercells. These storms will approach the coasts of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. The WSR-88D VWP at
Tallahassee and Eglin Air Force Base currently have a wind profile
that shows veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL. This is
resulting in a 0-1 km shear near 20 kt. As Hurricane Sally
approaches, low-level shear will steadily increase. As a result, a
tornado threat will develop along the immediate coast. Further
inland, instability is less which will keep the greatest tornado
threat confined to the coastal areas for several hours.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 09/15/2020onal Hurricane Center forecast.

[Ubuntwo]

Recon is on its way to Sally, so soon we shall see if the nearly completed eyewall has resulted in any intensification.

Based on the dramatic ramp up in radar velocities since last flight, most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

Morning all. I am in Gulfbreeze currently. will probabyl head west a little more today and probably end up somewhere near Mobile.

I will be streaming later as the eyewall approaches.

Update from Gulbreeze... life appears to be moving along like there is no hurricane offshore at all. People everywhere driving around,eating in restaraunts etc..all while some very heavy squalls gusting over 50 mph in some cases, swinging through with rotating meso vorts....

[Chemmers]

Think might be heading towards a cat 2 again

[northjaxpro]

I wake up and still the same, it’s like
everyone is seeing Sally move here or there or
nowhere. Some see it moving wnw, north or northwest
or wherever.
The models still don’t have a clue because Sally
refuses to move when she should. What a mess.

Agree

This in a nutshell!

[us89]

After checking the NHC's current intensity and seeing they had downgraded it to 75 kt, I was actually quite surprised to see how good it looks on IR. Best it's looked in nearly 24 hours. Few lightning flashes in the core as well.

It seems very unlikely to me that this gets to major status, but I wouldn't be that surprised to see this strengthen back to a category 2 before landfall. Stranger things have happened...

Also, not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet, but a tornado watch is up along the gulf coast from Mobile through Apalachicola. No land tornado warnings yet as far as I know, but the special marine warning off the coast of Pensacola mentions waterspout potential. Feel like the tornado threat has gotten less coverage than normal with this storm.

[Do_For_Love]

Just saw this for anyone interested regarding the lower winds since yesterday. Levi Cowan thinks the weakening of winds had more to do with the storm wrapping around and shear, with upwelling not playing a role yet. Additionally, since the eyewall seems to be wrapping, he thinks some strengthening is possible like a lot of posters here have been saying.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305846838327738369

[Dean4Storms]

I wake up and still the same, it’s like
everyone is seeing Sally move here or there or
nowhere. Some see it moving wnw, north or northwest
or wherever.
The models still don’t have a clue because Sally
refuses to move when she should. What a mess.

Wobble Watching..... There has to be a country song in there somewhere.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think recon is going to find this stronger than 75mph next time around, velocities on radar are about as high as they were during peak yesterday, and more symmetrically distributed.

[tiger_deF]

Quick, everyone talk about how pretty she looks