ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

[supercane4867]

Now that the small inner core is completely gone. We should see some re-tightening near landfall but the ceiling appears to be minimum CAT2 at most.

[GCANE]

Multiple overshooting tops.
55 mm/hr rain rate
Increasing CAPE infeed, now at 5000.

[NotoSans]

Eye sonde is 983mb/4kt so central pressure hasn't really decreased.

[tiger_deF]

She is clearly still a hurricane, central pressure is down from last night and the windfield is finally mostly symmetrical

[Dean4Storms]

Best I can find with the oil platforms is this with a 65kts gusting to 80kts......

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kmis

[Gums]

Salute!

@ Aric

For a good view try heading south to Gulf Shores/Orange/Perdido. Not swampy and reasonable high ground close to the water.

We Baja Alabama folks that have been there for over 30 years watch the storms and have seen what they can do. Gulf Breeze went thru Erin and Opal about 60 days apart. Then years later we had Ivan and Dennis and .........

Believe us, when the forecast is for doom we take it seriously. We only had a tree thru the roof with Erin and then Opal blew down aboiut a dozen and one crushed my son's car in the driveway. Other than that, mainly trees uprooted with the later storms ( knock on wood). Ivan was a lot harder to the west of us.

Gums sends...

P.S. The Panhandle from PNS to east is the highest of any counties in the state of Florida. The runway at Eglin is over 80 feet MSL and about a half mile from the bay. My home is also 70 to 80 feet MSL and a half mile from the bay.

[FLpanhandle91]

Nice convection around the center now.

[ColdFusion]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

Still plenty of time to strengthen.

[LarryWx]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

Not surprising with it being a very slow mover when looking back at history. As expected by many here, the rainfall is looking to be the biggest impact by far.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

So much depends on when the N turn actually starts. Right now the center is roughly 60 NM SSE of Dauphin Island. NHC discussion said NW movement to continue through today with turn to N & NNE later tonight. Timing will be everything as it always is.

[FLpanhandle91]

I expect recon to find substantially stronger winds in the NW quad.

[Blown Away]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

Still plenty of time to strengthen.

Shear from the SW, upwelling from sitting over the shallow NGOM shelf, proximity to land, are all working against keeping Sally a strong hurricane IMO. It appears the rainfall from slow moving Sally will be the legacy. It's possible Sally doesn't make it onshore with true sustained hurricane winds, hurricane gusts of course. This is just my amateur opinion only, NHC are the experts.

[bohai]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

So much depends on when the N turn actually starts. Right now the center is roughly 60 NM SSE of Dauphin Island. NHC discussion said NW movement to continue through today with turn to N & NNE later tonight. Timing will be everything as it always is.

Here is a webcam on the beach on Dauphin Island facing south. Waves definitely kicking up and cam shaking more than yesterday, but nothing too bad yet going on and for a storm only 60 miles away one would think they would be experiencing more hostile conditions. https://dauphin-island-south.click2stream.com/

[Sailingtime]

Recon still can't seem to locate any hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant. If it DOES have any hurricane force winds, then they cover only a very small area. Wind shear is already increasing from the SW, pushing the center northward. New consensus (TVCN) takes it inland east of Mobile Bay before sunrise tomorrow. Look for the NHC to shift their track eastward shortly, not that far east, though.

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

Still plenty of time to strengthen.

And still plenty of time to continue to disorganize and be more of a rain event. Why we keep watching I suppose.

[pcolaman]

Power outages now in Pensacola ahead of the storm.

[Sailingtime]

So a min Cat 1 at best sliding to the east of Mobile Bay, that's a lot of good news compared to how things looked yesterday.

Still plenty of time to strengthen.

Shear from the SW, upwelling from sitting over the shallow NGOM shelf, proximity to land, are all working against keeping Sally a strong hurricane IMO. It appears the rainfall from slow moving Sally will be the legacy. It's possible Sally doesn't make it onshore with true sustained hurricane winds, hurricane gusts of course. This is just my amateur opinion only, NHC are the experts.

Agree, a rain event most definitely, A very weak hurricane to a strong tropical storm is more likely.

[pcolaman]

A Barge has struk 3 mile bridge in Pensacola Bay

[Bamagirl2408]

I live in south western Mobile County. Coordinates still have entry over Dauphin Island. Does it come ashore Mobile County and cut over bay to Baldwin or miss us completely to the right and cut thru Fort Morgan?