ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Center almost onshore, part of the calm eye onshore... Seems to be weakening rapidly now which is good...

[Steve]

Great news there. Seems as though Cristobal and Delta were the most (and really only) predictable Gulf hits this year even if Delta stayed a bit to the western side of its potential track. This is such a crazy year for us in SELA. We’ve been in the cone probably 6 times and have had at least 9 or 10 tropical days with barely even minor issues. Plan for the evening is to sit on the porch and drink and enjoy the storm from a safe distance. Feels great out.

[toad strangler]

No rear end. Just like Irma.

Edit - Not nearly as strong as Irma at landfall (thankfully) but similar structure.

[ConvergenceZone]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 / low end cat 2 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

[CrazyC83]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 / low end cat 2 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

It will be up to the NHC to decide the landfall intensity. I would personally go with a high end C1 (80 kt). The radar echoes are borderline.

[Steve]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

[CrazyC83]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

This really feels like Lili 2.0. The season practically died after Lili in 2002 - I have doubts it will in 2020 though.

[toad strangler]

Delta will be extra extra tropical in no time. Really unraveling fast ... thankfully. Immediate core should still be a good punch though.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR measured 81 kt in the SW quad, although I doubt that is accurate as flight-level winds and radar echoes in that quadrant don't even support hurricane intensity (the strongest winds would be near the coast or ashore).

[Steve]

I think you’re right C. It might be over for the Gulf (short of a hybrid or late season BoC fade), but it seems like the season could still crank out another 3-4-5 Atlantic (including Caribbean) systems before November is up. Upward motion is neutral. MJO isn’t particularly favorable either but there are some signs it could rotate back to 8 in a couple weeks (CFS and Euro).

[CrazyC83]

I think you’re right C. It might be over for the Gulf (short of a hybrid or late season BoC fade), but it seems like the season could still crank out another 3-4-5 Atlantic (including Caribbean) systems before November. Upward motion is neutral. MJO isn’t particularly favorable either but there are some signs it could rotate back to 8 in a couple weeks (CFS and Euro).

Even in November, I wouldn't rule out more activity. The Gulf has produced systems in November before, albeit rarely.

[JRD]

Fortunately Delta is weakening. Interestingly, still strong enough to have turned a stationary front into a warm one.
https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

[CrazyC83]

105 kt flight-level winds were reported by Recon at the coast. Using the 90% rule, that translates to 94 kt, and with 80% (probably a better estimate) that is 83 kt. Borderline cat 1-2.

[ConvergenceZone]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

It was a number of factors, shear, dry air and cool sea surface temps.... Probably the last landfalling hurricane we will have this year.

[Kazmit]

Looks like my original prediction is coming true of a Cat 1 landfall. I could see this coming a couple of days ago based on how this hurricane just wasn't able to handle shear in its early stages.....
I think the folks that were calling for a Cat 3 landfall also forget just how much cool sea temperatures have a detrimental effect on a storms intensity.....

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

It was a number of factors, shear, dry air and cool sea surface temps.... Probably the last landfalling hurricane we will have this year.

A bold statement considering it's only October 9th and it's 2020.

[CrazyC83]

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

It was a number of factors, shear, dry air and cool sea surface temps.... Probably the last landfalling hurricane we will have this year.

A bold statement considering it's only October 9th and it's 2020.

Yeah, there've been bad hurricanes - even in the US - much later than October 9.

[toad strangler]

I think you’re right C. It might be over for the Gulf (short of a hybrid or late season BoC fade), but it seems like the season could still crank out another 3-4-5 Atlantic (including Caribbean) systems before November. Upward motion is neutral. MJO isn’t particularly favorable either but there are some signs it could rotate back to 8 in a couple weeks (CFS and Euro).

Even in November, I wouldn't rule out more activity. The Gulf has produced systems in November before, albeit rarely.

I can't find any evidence of a hurricane in the GOM in November during a La Nina in the modern 1851 - present timeline

[CrazyC83]

I think you’re right C. It might be over for the Gulf (short of a hybrid or late season BoC fade), but it seems like the season could still crank out another 3-4-5 Atlantic (including Caribbean) systems before November. Upward motion is neutral. MJO isn’t particularly favorable either but there are some signs it could rotate back to 8 in a couple weeks (CFS and Euro).

Even in November, I wouldn't rule out more activity. The Gulf has produced systems in November before, albeit rarely.

I can't find any evidence of a hurricane in the GOM in November during a La Nina in the modern 1851 - present timeline

Kate 1985 was a major hurricane in November in the eastern Gulf.

[sphelps8681]

82 mph winds recorded at Sabine Pass at Texas Point. 68 near Port Arthur.

[Stormgodess]

Either in the Delta update, or the Traffic update on WGNO 99,5 New Orleans... The guy reporting said blown over by winds ?? I dont know if he was correct or not. Just shared what was said

Easier to blow one over that's curving, one would think . . . so maybe everybody's right.

Apparently it was a bit of a trend today... From the Louisiana State Police FB page...



https://www.facebook.com/LouisianaStatePolice