ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

I forecast a shift in hardcore model stuff from 98L to 97L

[dantonlsu]

Could get interesting here in the next week...

[GCANE]

Could take off very soon.
Picking up a moisture feed from the south and tracking into the anticyclone.

[Aric Dunn]

Could take off very soon.
Picking up a moisture feed from the south and tracking into the anticyclone.

https://i.imgur.com/9lKxMuJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/z1k13uF.png

yeppers.. that general area has a decent swath of eastward moving low level clouds. HI res visible at the southern edge of the canopy shows the llc.

[GCANE]

Could take off very soon.
Picking up a moisture feed from the south and tracking into the anticyclone.

https://i.imgur.com/9lKxMuJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/z1k13uF.png

yeppers.. that general area has a decent swath of eastward moving low level clouds. HI res visible at the southern edge of the canopy shows the llc.

Looking like a couple towers going up and spewing out cirrus.

[GCANE]

Looks like there was a small swirl on Vis and then a tower popped over it.
Good symmetrical outflow from the tower - no shear.
T minus 10, 9, ....

[gatorcane]

I forecast a shift in hardcore model stuff from 98L to 97L

https://i.imgur.com/IZ0dYav.png

Looks like the HWRF is overdoing thing yet again. The Euro solution of a weak TS/TD in the Western Caribbean appears much more plausible looking the the structure of the system and environment ahead

[GCANE]

Starting to push back some cirrus around it
..8, 7...

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to push back some cirrus around it
..8, 7...

https://i.imgur.com/wpzx6eG.png

new tower popping off where the estimated center would be under the SW side of the canopy..

one good solid burst is all it will need.

[Extratropical94]

2 hours ago

[Aric Dunn]

2 hours ago

https://i.imgur.com/04UUoIC.jpg

yep..

there is a samll scale vort that has developed just under the edge of the canopy there. watching to see if more convection builds in that area.. could easily tighten things up.

[chaser1]

Looks like there was a small swirl on Vis and then a tower popped over it.
Good symmetrical outflow from the tower - no shear.
T minus 10, 9, ....

ehhhh, I'll give you the added feed from the south and the generally improved MLC but no joke, take a look at Barranquilla (N. Colombian coastline). This appears to be the most impressive LLC that I can plainly see, and that low isn't gonna couple with 97's MLC today. I think 48-60 hr.'s might be reasonable for a T.S. to develop but not before.

[PTrackerLA]

Watching closely in Louisiana. Looking likely we see at least 1 gulf storm in the next week.

[Aric Dunn]

Also from a couple hours ago..

definitely a broad closed LLC down south of that convection.

[Buck]

Oh boy... I'm getting bad vibes from this one and its sibling.

[GCANE]

Here's our secondary vort.
A marriage made in the Carib.
Who can resist a naked swirl?

[Aric Dunn]

Here's our secondary vort.
A marriage made in the Carib.
Who can resist a naked swirl?

https://i.imgur.com/gmCN0CY.png

Well that is a semi permanent feature. It is there all year around..

but yeah there might be some interaction. and in the past it has assisted systems with increased vorticity.

[3090]

Radar seems to indicate that the circulation is tightening up.
Vast majority of the Globals are now indicating a cane in the GoM with likely landfall in TX and some chance in LA.
Forecast as this gets into the W Carib is for the troposphere to be saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/oIDPfCh.png

Stronger = more east, Weaker = more west.

Not always the case

Straight from a pro-met. In case you were wondering. I only rely on pro-mets.

“Would be keeping a wary eye on the organizational trends with Invest 97L over the next 72 hours, as the organization over the next 3 days will influence it’s future track/strength down the road.

This morning, system is looking slightly better organized with more robust convection near the wave axis. Dry air appears less impactful.

The key...

A more organized tropical system within the next 72 hours would appear to have a more poleward/northerly track by Saturday-Sunday into the southern Gulf of Mexico, with a potential track towards the northern Gulf Coast. Steered by the decaying upper-level trough along the northern Gulf Coast.

A weaker system within the next 72 hours would appear to be steered further west/into the Yucatán Peninsula/Bay of Campeche. Weaker system, less likely to feel influence of the upper level trough.

Lots to watch. But, Invest 97L certainly has my attention, as it’s closer to home than Invest 98L...”

[Visioen]

Virtually no shear over this right now. Are we in the Caribbean?

[Javlin]

I forecast a shift in hardcore model stuff from 98L to 97L

https://i.imgur.com/IZ0dYav.png

Looks like the HWRF is overdoing thing yet again. The Euro solution of a weak TS/TD in the Western Caribbean appears much more plausible looking the the structure of the system and environment ahead

I don't know the GOM has it's own special energy and that track fuels all the majors it's through the center.