ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Dropsonde from the last pass measured a surface pressure of 982 mb with a 10 kt wind - suggesting a 981 mb central pressure.

The NHC went with 981 mbar for the 8pm intermediate advisory. The fact that the pressure is this low for a high-end TS means either Paulette will be a major with a lower than normal pressure, or it’ll have a MH-like pressure but winds will lag behind. I’m hoping for the former (assuming it misses Bermuda) because it’ll mean more ACE.

[gfsperpendicular]

I think that with the huge extent of FL hurricane-force winds and the mid-grade cat 1 pressure, the system is intensifying but surface winds are lagging. Maybe Hurricane Paulette is coming soon.

[ClarCari]

What an odd satellite appearance Paulette has had all day.
She has like a sunset look. The infrared looks like setting sun with the rest of the convection looking like pretty rays emanating from the center. Kinda pretty actually.

Too bad we can’t call her Sunset Sally

[us89]

Pressure looks to be about 1 mb lower on this pass.

[aspen]

The MPI map shows that the waters Paulette will travel through in the next 48-60 hours are high enough to support a high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5. However, the broad wind field and lagging surface winds (or low background pressure) lead me to believe that a more reasonable maximum potential intensity for Paulette is 9250-940 mbar and 120-130 kt, or a storm very similar to Karl '04 (125 kt and 938 mbar) and Earl '10 (125 kt and 927 mbar).

[cainjamin]

Dropsonde in the SE quad recorded 66kt at the surface. Very close to hurricane intensity.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde from the last pass measured a surface pressure of 982 mb with a 10 kt wind - suggesting a 981 mb central pressure.

The NHC went with 981 mbar for the 8pm intermediate advisory. The fact that the pressure is this low for a high-end TS means either Paulette will be a major with a lower than normal pressure, or it’ll have a MH-like pressure but winds will lag behind. I’m hoping for the former (assuming it misses Bermuda) because it’ll mean more ACE.

A larger RMW means Bermuda becomes a bigger target and also it would spend more time pounding the island.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane PAULETTE
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 13, 2020:

Location: 28.6°N 59.1°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 20 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[ClarCari]

Right on cue as the mission ends!

[aspen]

Sixth hurricane of the season, and likely to become the second major. Sally and Teddy will also likely become the seventh and eighth hurricanes.

[us89]

And it's official:

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[ClarCari]

That is one looooooong atlantic shrimp.
King (Queen) Prawn Paulette amirite
She’s well on her way to major now. Please be safe Bermuda!

[CrazyC83]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200913/194c433869516acef31a15af2a2c4584.jpg
That’s is one looooooong atlantic shrimp.
King (Queen) Prawn Paulette amirite
She’s well on her way to major now. Please be safe Bermuda!

That has the look of something ready to take off.

[USTropics]

3 day loop of Paulette hammering away at the upper-level trough and finally splitting it:

[USTropics]

What a difference 12 hours makes, the GFS sounding showed ~20 knots of shear earlier today:


As shear began to decrease (as analyzed on 00z GFS sounding), Paulette's convective pattern also began to respond:


This giant burst of convection occurred in the eastern quadrant (purple) and violently rotated around, and the inflow really began to pickup (blue):


We can now start to see a ragged COC forming on IR (hurricane models are depicting quite a large and ragged center):


These are clear signs Paulette is about to undergo some intensification:

[gfsperpendicular]

The eye's been popping in and out:

[gfsperpendicular]

Pressure down to 976, multiple 90kt+ FL winds. Plane going in for another pass.

[cycloneye]

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 61.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...390 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

[msbee]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

[cycloneye]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

Hi Barbara. Is a big error on his part saying that with Bermuda going to be affected.