ATL: SALLY - Models

[eastcoastFL]

Yeah eastcoast. I’m driving back to New Orleans tomorrow morning. We grabbed 6 cases of water a few packs of Toilet Paper so I could watch football tomorrow without a lot to do besides gas the cars. I’ll play it by ear and probably stay in New Orleans for Sally, but if it strikes the city hard, we will probably come back here once we can get out. Like Marco/Laura, the lack of known so close to potential impacts makes plan decisions difficult. If I was sure Sally was going to be a major, I’d most likely come back to my house in Pensacola and ride things out here. But I’m feeling - right now - that we have stuff handled for what we will most likely be facing. That’s subject to change. Cool thing is I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway so I’ll be able to chill without a lot of normal things hanging over my head.

NAM 00z is next.

I’d be most concerned with Major flooding in your area from this. Is it possible for you to stay in Pensacola and just wait and see what’s supposed to happen or do you have to handle things at home first? Because you go back and the euro verified and you get 3 feet of rain you won’t be able to leave to go back to Pensacola unless you’re going by boat. Even if this isn’t a major cane the rain is going to be extremely serious. The keys and Key West in particular are dealing with major flooding right now and Sally is just getting started at this point.

[Steve]

The 00z intensity guidance sure did drop with most models this run barely reaching Cat 1 strength...

That's really been the most realistic outcome in the first place.

I do agree with this and only gave Cat 2 like 35-40% chance when Kimmie asked for my opinion.

Just the same when you are in the crosshairs and aren’t close to 100% sure, you still have to worry.

[Steve]

Yeah eastcoast. I’m driving back to New Orleans tomorrow morning. We grabbed 6 cases of water a few packs of Toilet Paper so I could watch football tomorrow without a lot to do besides gas the cars. I’ll play it by ear and probably stay in New Orleans for Sally, but if it strikes the city hard, we will probably come back here once we can get out. Like Marco/Laura, the lack of known so close to potential impacts makes plan decisions difficult. If I was sure Sally was going to be a major, I’d most likely come back to my house in Pensacola and ride things out here. But I’m feeling - right now - that we have stuff handled for what we will most likely be facing. That’s subject to change. Cool thing is I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway so I’ll be able to chill without a lot of normal things hanging over my head.

NAM 00z is next.

I’d be most concerned with Major flooding in your area from this. Is it possible for you to stay in Pensacola and just wait and see what’s supposed to happen or do you have to handle things at home first? Because you go back and the euro verified and you get 3 feet of rain you won’t be able to leave to go back to Pensacola unless you’re going by boat. Even if this isn’t a major cane the rain is going to be extremely serious. The keys and Key West in particular are dealing with major flooding right now and Sally is just getting started at this point.

I gotta go back to the city anyway, but I think one of my kids is coming back here so I may end up doing that. My apt is 15’ up and I can park downtown high up in a garage so it would just be a matter of waiting for the water to go down.

[SohCahToa]

Yeah eastcoast. I’m driving back to New Orleans tomorrow morning. We grabbed 6 cases of water a few packs of Toilet Paper so I could watch football tomorrow without a lot to do besides gas the cars. I’ll play it by ear and probably stay in New Orleans for Sally, but if it strikes the city hard, we will probably come back here once we can get out. Like Marco/Laura, the lack of known so close to potential impacts makes plan decisions difficult. If I was sure Sally was going to be a major, I’d most likely come back to my house in Pensacola and ride things out here. But I’m feeling - right now - that we have stuff handled for what we will most likely be facing. That’s subject to change. Cool thing is I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway so I’ll be able to chill without a lot of normal things hanging over my head.

NAM 00z is next.

I’ll hold the fort down here on the northshore.

[NDG]

Just a friendly reminder of how way off the global models and SHIPS model were in Hanna's intensity forecast, with less than 48 hrs of landfall the GFS had it like a weak TS, and SHIPS as just a moderate TS with 15-25 knots of shear over it before landfall. The WHRF was the only one showing it becoming a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2 hurricane, sounds familiar?
That's why I am not throwing the 18z HWRF out the window.
Sally becoming a Cat 2 is not out of the question from me.

[eastcoastFL]

Just a friendly reminder of how way off the global models and SHIPS model were in Hanna's intensity forecast, with less than 48 hrs of landfall the GFS had it like a weak TS, and SHIPS as just a moderate TS with 15-25 knots of shear over it before landfall. The WHRF was the only one showing it becoming a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2 hurricane, sounds familiar?
That's why I am not throwing the 18z HWRF out the window.
Sally becoming a Cat 2 is not out of the question from me.

https://i.imgur.com/AZMpLHm.png
https://i.imgur.com/WPRY2ko.gif
https://i.imgur.com/B8KJ7C6.png

Hwrf was also consistent with Laura bombing out while the globals were still calling for a TS or an Open wave exiting Cuba. Hwrf is much improved this season with the updates they made. Also note the HWRF forecast Sally at 1003MB at this point in the 12z run yesterday where the globals has it at 1009 still and it’s currently 1003mb per NHC.

[NDG]

Just a friendly reminder of how way off the global models and SHIPS model were in Hanna's intensity forecast, with less than 48 hrs of landfall the GFS had it like a weak TS, and SHIPS as just a moderate TS with 15-25 knots of shear over it before landfall. The WHRF was the only one showing it becoming a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2 hurricane, sounds familiar?
That's why I am not throwing the 18z HWRF out the window.
Sally becoming a Cat 2 is not out of the question from me.

https://i.imgur.com/AZMpLHm.png
https://i.imgur.com/WPRY2ko.gif
https://i.imgur.com/B8KJ7C6.png

Hwrf was also consistent with Laura bombing out while the globals were still calling for a TS or an Open wave exiting Cuba. Hwrf is much improved this season with the updates they made.

As long as the atmospheric conditions are present, like light shear, high moisture, warm SSTs.
With the AEWs in the middle of the MDR with SAL near them, it failed many times with their intensity forecast, was way too aggressive.

[eastcoastFL]

Just a friendly reminder of how way off the global models and SHIPS model were in Hanna's intensity forecast, with less than 48 hrs of landfall the GFS had it like a weak TS, and SHIPS as just a moderate TS with 15-25 knots of shear over it before landfall. The WHRF was the only one showing it becoming a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2 hurricane, sounds familiar?
That's why I am not throwing the 18z HWRF out the window.
Sally becoming a Cat 2 is not out of the question from me.

https://i.imgur.com/AZMpLHm.png
https://i.imgur.com/WPRY2ko.gif
https://i.imgur.com/B8KJ7C6.png

Hwrf was also consistent with Laura bombing out while the globals were still calling for a TS or an Open wave exiting Cuba. Hwrf is much improved this season with the updates they made.

As long as the atmospheric conditions are present, like light shear, high moisture, warm SSTs.
With the AEWs in the middle of the MDR with SAL near them, it failed many times with their intensity forecast, was way too aggressive.

It’s always been aggressive but not always wrong. The globals have just been downright awful and unreliable all season so I don’t think it makes sense to discount the HWRF in these scenarios. It’s not like the EURO or GFS is any better. They have been especially bad on systems close to land and complete trash with genesis. Despite the models being useless the NHC has been phenomenal at deciding which to throw out and which to make use of.

[eastcoastFL]

Yeah eastcoast. I’m driving back to New Orleans tomorrow morning. We grabbed 6 cases of water a few packs of Toilet Paper so I could watch football tomorrow without a lot to do besides gas the cars. I’ll play it by ear and probably stay in New Orleans for Sally, but if it strikes the city hard, we will probably come back here once we can get out. Like Marco/Laura, the lack of known so close to potential impacts makes plan decisions difficult. If I was sure Sally was going to be a major, I’d most likely come back to my house in Pensacola and ride things out here. But I’m feeling - right now - that we have stuff handled for what we will most likely be facing. That’s subject to change. Cool thing is I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway so I’ll be able to chill without a lot of normal things hanging over my head.

NAM 00z is next.

I’d be most concerned with Major flooding in your area from this. Is it possible for you to stay in Pensacola and just wait and see what’s supposed to happen or do you have to handle things at home first? Because you go back and the euro verified and you get 3 feet of rain you won’t be able to leave to go back to Pensacola unless you’re going by boat. Even if this isn’t a major cane the rain is going to be extremely serious. The keys and Key West in particular are dealing with major flooding right now and Sally is just getting started at this point.

I gotta go back to the city anyway, but I think one of my kids is coming back here so I may end up doing that. My apt is 15’ up and I can park downtown high up in a garage so it would just be a matter of waiting for the water to go down.

Yah that wait for the water to go down is the wild card. I’m glad you’ll be safe wherever you are.

[Steve]

NAMs weren’t much help. They stayed offshore for most of the runs (12km and 3km) and then hooked northeast. Does indicate the stall.

[Blown Away]

Just a friendly reminder of how way off the global models and SHIPS model were in Hanna's intensity forecast, with less than 48 hrs of landfall the GFS had it like a weak TS, and SHIPS as just a moderate TS with 15-25 knots of shear over it before landfall. The WHRF was the only one showing it becoming a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2 hurricane, sounds familiar?
That's why I am not throwing the 18z HWRF out the window.
Sally becoming a Cat 2 is not out of the question from me.

https://i.imgur.com/AZMpLHm.png
https://i.imgur.com/WPRY2ko.gif
https://i.imgur.com/B8KJ7C6.png

I agree w/ you, but the HWRF does develop most systems stronger than they ever become.

[Steve]

ICON stalls a bit over SE LA before heading up and out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=51

[FixySLN]

ICON stalls a bit over SE LA before heading up and out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=51

Ouch...That'd be a hell of a rain event for SE LA and the MS coast.

[eastcoastFL]

Is there a reason why I don’t even see Sally when I’m running the GFS PARA?

[eastcoastFL]

ICON stalls a bit over SE LA before heading up and out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=51

Ouch...That'd be a hell of a rain event for SE LA and the MS coast.

You’re not kidding

[Steve]

Is there a reason why I don’t even see Sally when I’m running the GFS PARA?

If you are on Tidbits it has Wednesday’s run.

[eastcoastFL]

00Z GFS @ 36hrs

[eastcoastFL]

Is there a reason why I don’t even see Sally when I’m running the GFS PARA?

If you are on Tidbits it has Wednesday’s run.

That would explain it. Thanks Steve.

[eastcoastFL]

00z GFS @ 42 hours

[FixySLN]

ICON stalls a bit over SE LA before heading up and out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=51

Ouch...That'd be a hell of a rain event for SE LA and the MS coast.

You’re not kidding

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020091300/icon_apcpn_us_39.png

I was content to ride this one out before seeing this. We're too close to the coast and just a few feet above sea level. Going to pack the truck and be ready to bail. That's just too much rain on top of the storm surge to ignore.