ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Tireman4]

:bd: Let the Greek Festival soon begin! Program announcement: Festivities have been rescheduled to start in the Gulf of Mexico with a tentative start time of approx. 11:00PM this evening

I was just thinking that....Here we go and we are still at the height of the Cape Verde Season. Gracious. October might be rocking and rolling

[Aric Dunn]

Also just an FYI the long range radar out of brownsville is just barely picking up on the center way

and it is quite circular .. although it is slightly sheared there may be the start of a core developing

[dantonlsu]

Alpha time?

[cheezyWXguy]

Also just an FYI the long range radar out of brownsville is just barely picking up on the center way

and it is quite circular .. although it is slightly sheared there may be the start of a core developing

Interesting, just saw that as well. Seems legit given the tower motion and banding starting to show up in that area on vis

[KWT]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

[chaser1]

If it was borderline TS yesterday with minmal convection..

its alsmost certainly a TS now.

expect more east and south shifts if this gets stronger than expected and lags behind to the south even a little bit.

the expceted front in several days will become east to west orientated as it stall and Alpha would likley head off to the ENE then NE

possible as far south as the big bend area of florida.

I was kind of thinking the exact same thing. More of a south or SSE drift as the front sags southward causing less of any "pull" of motion, but more of a southward nudge. Only thing is I would think that timing for this would have to be at least until the front itself begins a retrograde back from crossing S. Florida and returning back north as a warm front with weak Atlantic high pressure beginning to fill in from the east. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on all this to play out but it certainly may be on the table.

[wxman57]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

Naming criteria have changed significantly since 2005. Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005. 2020 is NO 2005. Lots of weak, short-lived storms.

[ronyan]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

Naming criteria have changed significantly since 2005. Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005. 2020 is NO 2005. Lots of weak, short-lived storms.

Don't tempt fate here, we have some time left in 2020 lol

[gfsperpendicular]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005.

Just curious - which ones?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like we will probably be going Greek this evening when recon gets to TD22. In mid-September...What is happening right now?

[tomatkins]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

Naming criteria have changed significantly since 2005. Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005. 2020 is NO 2005. Lots of weak, short-lived storms.

Plenty of weak short lived storms in 2005. Its just that the biggies were bigger (so far.) Of course at this point in 2005 we were only at Phillipe. We hadnt even had Rita and Wilma yet.

[Fancy1001]

I'm surprised 98 l got Wilfred. I guess this one will be little alpha.

[edu2703]

NHC Forecast Advisory #4

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is
getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective
banding in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates include 35 kt from TAFB, 30 kt from SAB, and 35 kt from
CIMSS satellite consensus, which means the depression is close to
tropical-storm strength. Given the lack of organization seen in
earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will be held at 30 kt
pending the data from the next set of scatterometer overpasses.

If only we had recon today...

[wxman57]

Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!

Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005.

Just curious - which ones?

Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.

[aspen]

While Wilfred will likely be a pathetic weakling, there’s a good chance Alpha 2020 will be stronger than Alpha 2005, as well as being longer-lived and WAY more of a headache.

[HurricaneEnzo]

When is the next ASCAT data going to be available?

[wxman57]

When is the next ASCAT data going to be available?

The pass is usually around 4pm to 6pm CDT, meaning it's available a couple hrs later.

[SoupBone]

When is the next ASCAT data going to be available?

The pass is usually around 4pm to 6pm CDT, meaning it's available a couple hrs later.

How are your strss levels with that giant bubble of a cone?

You still thinking Houston will miss most of the fun? It looks like either the first or secoond trouch would move it out to the NE.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005.

Just curious - which ones?

Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.

They would've been named. We had QuikSCAT, which was arguably better than ASCAT even as it had better coverage.

[LarryWx]

While Wilfred will likely be a pathetic weakling, there’s a good chance Alpha 2020 will be stronger than Alpha 2005, as well as being longer-lived and WAY more of a headache.

I wish they all were “pathetic weaklings”. The use of “pathetic” is describing a good thing in this case, especially for those that hit land.