ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Too bad ASCAT missed it again.

https://i.imgur.com/pK0w6H3.jpg

Oh my god, ASCAT’s aim has been nothing short of a horrendous embarrassment. Stormtroopers have better aim than this!

You realize that this is because it’s a satellite in orbit? Its orbit dictates the scanner path.

[Weatherboy1]

I’m surprised it didn’t get designated a TD at 11, frankly. Hard to see it not getting that as of 5 unless something drastically changes

[ronjon]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

For now that's what the likely track would be. But if a few more model cycles continue to show more ensemble and operational models stalling and tracking north, then think they'd dramatically slow it down in 4-5 days with just a large circular zone centered just off the coast of Nic.

[us89]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

For now that's what the likely track would be. But if a few more model cycles continue to show more ensemble and operational models stalling and tracking north, then think they'd dramatically slow it down in 4-5 days with just a large circular zone centered just off the coast of Nic.

Well in that case, since ASCAT continues to miss this storm, we might not see advisories until an eye pops out.

[Iceresistance]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

[Iceresistance]

If this is another Nana-like situation, where 96L is already a compact TS, then its genesis time could be pushed to be much earlier in post-season analysis.

Eye feature detected on IR!

[NDG]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

Can you post the link at least?

[Iceresistance]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

Can you post the link at least?

I’ll try.

[shiny-pebble]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

I'm quite sure that's not an eye feature. It is likely just an area of weaker convection near the center. We don't even know for sure if it's closed or not

[ElectricStorm]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

Can you post the link at least?

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

[Jr0d]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

Can you post the link at least?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Its just a warm spot...not a true eye. Kind of looks like one, especially if you only saw one frame.

I am a bit surprised the NHC did not start issuing advisories. At least they will have 6 more hours of computer runs if they upgrade a 5pm...hopefully making the cone as accurate as possible.

[NDG]

Can you post the link at least?

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

[us89]

Would have been nice to have recon today. The models are only as good as the data you give them.

[CyclonicFury]

There's a distinct possibility that 96L moves inland into Central America and a new TC forms within the cyclonic gyre. That has been suggested by multiple models.

[Iceresistance]

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

https://i.imgur.com/h7UAkOn.jpg

Maybe a dry slot after all, but that looked like an eye.

[Iceresistance]

Can you post the link at least?

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

But it really looks like one.

[Iceresistance]

There is an eye feature on 96L!

(I don’t have the Satellite imagery since I’m on the mobile version.)

Can you post the link at least?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Its just a warm spot...not a true eye. Kind of looks like one, especially if you only saw one frame.

I am a bit surprised the NHC did not start issuing advisories. At least they will have 6 more hours of computer runs if they upgrade a 5pm...hopefully making the cone as accurate as possible.

A few frames looks like an eye

[Iceresistance]

True color indicate the LLC is rather close to the eye feature/dry slot.

[Aric Dunn]

I have not checked since yesterday..

but I see we are still calling this an open wave.. lol

[Iceresistance]

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

https://i.imgur.com/h7UAkOn.jpg

True color indicates the LLC is close to the eye feature/dry slot. Note spiraling to the north.