ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Even in November, I wouldn't rule out more activity. The Gulf has produced systems in November before, albeit rarely.

I can't find any evidence of a hurricane in the GOM in November during a La Nina in the modern 1851 - present timeline

Kate 1985 was a major hurricane in November in the eastern Gulf.

That was not during a La Nina. It was Neutral ENSO.

[ConvergenceZone]

They do, but you can’t lay it all on that. It’s also October 9, so you don’t expect a high end system hitting where Delta is or even really a low end one. There is dry air. There are cool shelf waters. There is a strong SW flow.

It was a number of factors, shear, dry air and cool sea surface temps.... Probably the last landfalling hurricane we will have this year.

A bold statement considering it's only October 9th and it's 2020.

Oh don't get me wrong, I think there will be a couple of tropical storms. But with cooler ocean temperatures, Troughs coming down and Scattered Upper level Low's....It's going to to be a struggle. The Cape Verde Season is over, so anything that develops is pretty much going to be i the Carib or Gulf.... No models are showing any canes at this point, so that generally goes out a couple of weeks, which puts us at the end of October.....

[AdamFirst]

Looking like the eyewall is backbuilding as it comes onshore between Lake Charles and Lafayette. Mark Sudduth is live near Lake Arthur and the eyewall band seems to be building new convection as it comes onshore.

[LARanger]

I can't find any evidence of a hurricane in the GOM in November during a La Nina in the modern 1851 - present timeline

That's a perilously short timescale for an area that suffered a thousand-year flood event four years ago, not to mention the 2005 season. I think you'll find Louisiana folks'll have their heads on swivels till February or so.

[ColdMiser123]

The 105 kt FL wind measured just before landfall is impressive, since that's about the same as early afternoon. Always will trust in situ FL wind observations over remote sensing SFMR measurements this close to the coast. Probably not a standard 0.9 conversion this time, but likely still supports a Cat 2 landfall.

[LARanger]

Easier to blow one over that's curving, one would think . . . so maybe everybody's right.

Apparently it was a bit of a trend today...

Maybe it's less blowing-over and more Fast & Furious: Lake Charles Drift.

[PTrackerLA]

Getting huge gusts in south Lafayette now. 4.5" of rain so far and the highest winds are just kicking in now through the next several hours. Power has flickered hanging on tight.

[Steve]

Starting to kick up here. Winds around 25 up to 35/40. Other than specks blowing into my eyes, it’s a good day. Eastern feeder edge is about 35 miles west of here. I’m hoping it will make it here in a couple hours while the Jim Beam is kicking in. Winds are still mostly East and SE though the clouds are moving up from the South.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the pressure at landfall was 967 mb based on the last dropsonde which came in probably too late for the advisory.

[Stormgodess]

The 105 kt FL wind measured just before landfall is impressive, since that's about the same as early afternoon. Always will trust in situ FL wind observations over remote sensing SFMR measurements this close to the coast. Probably not a standard 0.9 conversion this time, but likely still supports a Cat 2 landfall.

I know the winds right now in Albany, La are crazy right now and we are over 150 miles away from center

[psyclone]

Starting to kick up here. Winds around 25 up to 35/40. Other than specks blowing into my eyes, it’s a good day. Eastern feeder edge is about 35 miles west of here. I’m hoping it will make it here in a couple hours while the Jim Beam is kicking in. Winds are still mostly East and SE though the clouds are moving up from the South.

Hoping you get the fun fringes i enjoy. that's the extent of my wishcasting. good porch sitting booze and bong weather. Hoping for nothing but the best for our Louisiana club. Delta is a degrading storm but it is degrading from a high baseline which means it is still a powerful system.

[Stormgodess]

The 105 kt FL wind measured just before landfall is impressive, since that's about the same as early afternoon. Always will trust in situ FL wind observations over remote sensing SFMR measurements this close to the coast. Probably not a standard 0.9 conversion this time, but likely still supports a Cat 2 landfall.

I know the winds right now in Albany, La are crazy right now and we are over 150 miles away from center

Goodness I need sleep. I dont think that even mad sense to me, and I wrote it

[toad strangler]

Looks like Josh is out walking around in this landfall

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1314708024515334144

[Steve]

Starting to kick up here. Winds around 25 up to 35/40. Other than specks blowing into my eyes, it’s a good day. Eastern feeder edge is about 35 miles west of here. I’m hoping it will make it here in a couple hours while the Jim Beam is kicking in. Winds are still mostly East and SE though the clouds are moving up from the South.

Hoping you get the fun fringes i enjoy. that's the extent of my wishcasting. good porch sitting booze and bong weather. Hoping for nothing but the best for our Louisiana club. Delta is a degrading storm but it is degrading from a high baseline which means it is still a powerful system.

Right on. With all the threats and close bys, I was hoping to sample a decent TS or 1 or 2 this year, but I’m cool with all we got. One helpful thing for us is that we leave for vacation in Asheville Sunday, and it looks like Delta will surge some warmth up there. I’ve never really seen the fall, and I’m tired of being cooped up. Next week days will be sunny and in the 70’s with nights in the 50’s which is about 10+ average.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

And there’s the FOURTH Gulf hurricane landfall, the fifth CONUS hurricane landfall, and record 10th tropical storm or high intensity CONUS landfall this year.

[EquusStorm]

Looking like a pretty substantial hit. Hate to see more water damage piled on top of already damaged homes... just a dreadful year for western Louisiana

[supercane4867]

Very impressive measurement in the western eyewall if calibrated

 https://twitter.com/brady30951303/status/1314707970274537472

[ColdMiser123]

Very impressive measurement in the western eyewall if calibrated

https://twitter.com/brady30951303/status/1314707970274537472?s=21

Winds would certainly be even stronger than this on the east side, if this is an accurate measurement.

[mpic]

Looking like a pretty substantial hit. Hate to see more water damage piled on top of already damaged homes... just a dreadful year for western Louisiana

Hopefully they didn't have time to get a substantialial amount of work done only to have it ruined.