ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif

[eastcoastFL]

What ever happened with the floater page that you could mark the forecast points and follow it on visible sat? I haven’t been able to find it in recent years.

[eastcoastFL]

Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif

Where exactly is the trough?

[eastcoastFL]

Some impressive 28 foot waves near the center of Isaias

[eastcoastFL]

just got this friendly local alert... guess I’ll be getting that generator this morning


THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be completed as soon as
possible. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

[GCANE]

I spoke too soon last night about not seeing convection fire off the north shore of Haiti.
After I went to bed, sure enough it exploded due to the LL winds converging on shore.
Massive tower and resultant rapid drop in pressure.
Isaias appears to take its sweet time in doing what is expected.

The rapid pressure drop resulted in a new feeder band quickly kicking in.
Per the CIMSS depiction, anti-cyclone is south of CoC, yet WV imagery suggests good outflow into the shear its tracking into.
Watching closely if more towers fire to push shear out of the way and create more rapid pressure drops which will enhance the infeed.

Of special note is GFS is positioning the anticyclone to the east instead of what CIMSS is showing to the south.
Depictions are 2 hrs apart.
Could have a large impact on shear forecast.

[CFLHurricane]

just got this friendly local alert... guess I’ll be getting that generator this morning


THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be completed as soon as
possible. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

You should have a generator & other hurricane supplies already regardless of Isaias. Just sayin.

[GCANE]

Latest wind-field analysis based on the last recon run.

[eastcoastFL]

So they bumped intensity to 100mph in 24hrs on the 5am...

[GCANE]

Amazing how the island really tightened up the core.

[sponger]

Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif

Where exactly is the trough?

Over Texas to Maine!

[eastcoastFL]

Latest wind-field analysis based on the last recon run.

https://i.imgur.com/0YxfbRF.gif

Been consolidating quite a bit the past 24 hrs. Went from TS winds 325 miles out to 205 miles out. Do you expect the wind field to shrink more as it intensifies?

[Kat5]

I’m starting to see the NW movement now on IR.

[eastcoastFL]

Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif

Where exactly is the trough?

Over Texas to Maine!

Oh wow. I see it now, I hope it keeps on moving and does it’s thing

[sponger]

just got this friendly local alert... guess I’ll be getting that generator this morning


THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be completed as soon as
possible. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

You should have a generator & other hurricane supplies already regardless of Isaias. Just sayin.

Still have my 2004 Frances, Jeane, Wilma, Matthew, and Irma Troy Bilt 5500 generator and six empty gas cans ready to go. It is now down to the point where my supply list this storm was 5 flashlights, a roll of duct tape, and two bags of Charcoal.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m starting to see the NW movement now on IR.

I can’t really tell. It’s hard to see where the center is. The entire mass it’s self still seems to be on a wnw heading to me.

[sponger]

I’m starting to see the NW movement now on IR.

I can’t really tell. It’s hard to see where the center is. The entire mass it’s self still seems to be on a wnw heading to me.

It is quite a mess. Visible should give some clarity when the sun comes up.

[eastcoastFL]

just got this friendly local alert... guess I’ll be getting that generator this morning


THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and
property should be completed as soon as
possible. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

You should have a generator & other hurricane supplies already regardless of Isaias. Just sayin.

Still have my 2004 Frances, Jeane, Wilma, Matthew, and Irma Troy Bilt 5500 generator and six empty gas cans ready to go. It is now down to the point where my supply list this storm was 5 flashlights, a roll of duct tape, and two bags of Charcoal.

I bought 2 after frances actually. Some how my father in law has both of them! He borrows things and then swallows them up... I’ll be heading to Home Depot in a few mins. I hope it stays well to our east but I’ve never been a last minute hurricane shopper and don’t plan to be one this year. I have all the gas cans and cords still just missing the expensive part.

[jlauderdal]

Amazing how the island really tightened up the core.

https://i.imgur.com/RHaNgAS.gif

the setup was near perfect with a shallow system, forward speed was fast, the "center" didn't go over the high mountains, the system was able to continue getting energy from the south and se...last night the inflow did get a choked off a little but that was over in a few hours..i had pointed out a couple of days ago that weakening isn't the default around hispanola and here we are....lets also not forget about the unreliability shear forecasts, there is real potential of a major hurricane in the next 48 hours

[GCANE]

Latest wind-field analysis based on the last recon run.

https://i.imgur.com/0YxfbRF.gif

Been consolidating quite a bit the past 24 hrs. Went from TS winds 325 miles out to 205 miles out. Do you expect the wind field to shrink more as it intensifies?

Land interaction had a lot to do with the change in wind field.
Hard to say what will happen next with intensity and radius of maximum winds given the incorrect data in the global models.
I don't think they ran any high altitude drop missions yet.
Almost too late if they want to get accurate forecasts for the coast.
The hurricane models appeared to have worked better with Hanna.
I am going to take a look at them.