ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Not liking the model trends getting into 960s or the track for Pensacola. Going to be a long night if that comes to fruition

Look at the 12z Icon

ICON track looks good, but it has Sally way too strong to start with. Ivanhater is in for a butt load of rain (met term) and strong TS winds. I don't think any station will record sustained hurricane-force wind at landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the model trends getting into 960s or the track for Pensacola. Going to be a long night if that comes to fruition

Look at the 12z Icon

ICON track looks good, but it has Sally way too strong to start with. Ivanhater is in for a butt load of rain (met term) and strong TS winds. I don't think any station will record sustained hurricane-force wind at landfall.

I'll take the good news on the winds, not so much on the rain. Thanks for the update wxman!

[bella_may]

saved loop
https://imgur.com/Nd2SvEV

Looks like it took a westward jog

[Kristymac03]

So I will say, the general attitude that most of my friends/people on my Facebook feed have a lax attitude about Sally. I hope it stays like it is now but I am in Pace, Fl...about 40 miles North of Pensacola beach and about 5 miles from Escambia Bay. If she goes into the Al/Fl line area we will get the eye wall. I hope the New models are wrong with the lower pressure on landfall...whenever Sally decides that will happen.

[hurricanehunter69]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[edu2703]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

[DestinHurricane]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

Obviously someone didn't read.

[Blow_Hard]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

I agree...I'd be shocked if it is able to re-strengthen even a little bit...

[ColdMiser123]

Radial velocities are increasing in the northeast eyewall to around 80 KT at 9k feet, definitely a legit Cat 1 at this point.

Ceiling is probably a Cat 2 for this, most guidance does show modest to moderate pressure falls between now and landfall by tomorrow morning.

[DestinHurricane]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

I agree...I'd be shocked if it is able to re-strengthen even a little bit...

It is re strengthening as we speak.

[Jag95]

Recent center pass shows more or less unchanged pressure and a small movment to the NE.

It does seem to be a little bit of a NE wobble there on radar over the last hour or so. Still not getting much in the way of wind in Mobile, at least where I am, and have got about an inch in the rain gauge. We still have another day or so to go, but I'm feeling much better about this than I was yesterday.

Regional Airport has had gusts 45-50 in last half hour.

I'm south of the airport over on Hillcrest. It's breezy, but I hardly even noticed. Working from home and stuck in the back room.

[stormhunter7]

Think a mesovortice in the CoC was picked up on kmob at 1055 as it rotated around to the west to south to east and is now higher ref returns in the NE eyewall. Pretty neat.

[edu2703]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

Obviously someone didn't read.

My bad. I thought it was someone trolling. After I saw that he/she was talking about Teddy.

[eastcoastFL]

Sally definitely looks better on visible ATM. Another decent rap around seems to be in progress. Interested to see if this leads to (short term strengthening). On a side note...check out Teddy. Definitely a classic hurricane in the making. Could have a decent shot at cat 5? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

I agree...I'd be shocked if it is able to re-strengthen even a little bit...

Radar presentation is looking more organized.

[ElectricStorm]

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

I agree...I'd be shocked if it is able to re-strengthen even a little bit...

Radar presentation is looking more organized.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

She wants to get back to cat 2...

[Blow_Hard]

I would eat my phone if Sally reaches Cat 5.

I don't really see any strengthening going on, but it's a possibility, especially with the models insisting on a pressure drop before landfalll

I agree...I'd be shocked if it is able to re-strengthen even a little bit...

It is re strengthening as we speak.

Yeah, it does look like it. I stand corrected...

[tropicwatch]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

[wxman57]

May be moving a little east of north now. Just east of Mobile Bay still looks "good" for landfall. May be a tad stronger than this morning. About 65 kt winds. Shear not too bad yet, but it is predicted to increase.

Looking at 3-hr movement on my workstation, I measure about 0.2 of a degree east over that time, from 88.2W to 88W. It's definitely not moving NW.

[TallyTracker]

It looks to me like Sally has started drifting north now. Doubt it will head any further west.

[Dean4Storms]

Getting hit here just east of Destin with repeated Squalls and heavy rain, already at 4.52" of rain this storm.