ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

South Florida back in the cone as of the new update. Not as sharp as turn as earlier forecast and now over the middle keys. 65 mph max winds forecast.

[caneseddy]

I can sense Blake is leaving the possibility open for this to be a hurricane threat to SFL.

https://i.imgur.com/ozhMUBF.png

Yes he does.

Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level
circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive
environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend,
it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will
overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification
until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the
previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus
model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after
Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will
remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out
the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various
solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that
range.

[HurricaneBelle]

We here in the Tampa Bay area have seen our TS wind probabilities boosted from the high single-digits on the last several advisories to 19% and now we're even shown with a chance of high-end TS winds (3%).

[Blown Away]

We here in the Tampa Bay area have seen our TS wind probabilities boosted from the high single-digits on the last several advisories to 19% and now we're even shown with a chance of high-end TS winds (3%).

I suspect those probabilities will be very high in next few days.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1324562916578938880

[Blown Away]

I believe the next 24 hours we will know the track with confidence through 60 hours... The GFS keeps flopping the low all around in the first 12 hours, if that low develops a degree or 2 farther E in next 12 hours a direct landfall into metro SFL is likely IMO. The more Eta passes the peninsula to the SE the more time it has to develop when it turns NW and it’s pretty clear conditions are decent once that NW turn happens. The next 24 hours will be big... JMHO

[Jr0d]

Getting a bit worried about the GFS's consistency. Looks like there is a chance Eta takes that WSW bend and rides the Florida Keys.

Most residents here are expecting a weak tropical storm that will be hampered by Cuba's terrain. This will most certainly catch most off guard.

Only one road out, so evacuating is a nightmare. It is the policy of Monroe county to NOT evacuate residents(except mobile homes and liveaboard vessels) for a cat 1.

I will be glued to the latest weather updates now til I lose internet in Key West.

[ElectricStorm]

Getting a bit worried about the GFS's consistency. Looks like there is a chance Eta takes that WSW bend and rides the Florida Keys.

Most residents here are expecting a weak tropical storm that will be hampered by Cuba's terrain. This will most certainly catch most off guard.

Only one road out, so evacuating is a nightmare. It is the policy of Monroe county to NOT evacuate residents(except mobile homes and liveaboard vessels) for a cat 1.

I will be glued to the latest weather updates now til I lose internet in Key West.

That's interesting regarding the evacuation policy. Not saying Eta is going to be like the other storms this season but several of them have intensified more than the early forecasts suggested they would, Eta pat 1 being one of them. I guess it all depends on how far east it gets before it hooks west, and also how fast its moving. I just hope it's not a situation where they don't call for an evacuation and Eta blows up into a strong Cat 1/Cat 2 and catches everyone off guard. Hopefully Cuba will hurt it.

[xironman]

Lots of lightening, still looks like a broad trough. Those towers are going to need to do there work before there will be west winds.

[GCANE]

A lot of concentrated lightning.
Good closed LL wind field.
Increasing rain rate.

[SouthernBreeze]

NHC latest 3AM cone shows Eta crossing Cuba at almost the lowest elevations of the whole island

[GCANE]

Good pressure drop at the Yucatan Buoy

[SFLcane]

Deep Convection really going now over the LLC...

[GCANE]

Looks like it'll cross Cuba pretty much unscathed.
Big TPW feed from the EPAC and Carib

[Cat5James]

All of Broward County now within the cone as per latest update from NHC

[SFLcane]

Seems that feeling i had about SFL not getting out without impacts this year are about to become reality. Now is the time to prepare folks if your in SFL!!

Plan for likely power outages

[GCANE]

On approach to Miami / Keys area, with a direct dive into a strong PVS from the ULL.
Going to get squished quite a bit.

[TheProfessor]

Low level vorticity and the heaviest convection now align with each other, I have to imagine we should see this start to develop pretty quickly. I have to imagine that NHC will issue TS watches for the Keys and maybe SFL unless we see drastic changes with the 12z models. They may be a bit more proactive in this instance knowing that people are pretty distracted right now and may not be paying attention to the weather.

[jhpigott]

Low level vorticity and the heaviest convection now align with each other, I have to imagine we should see this start to develop pretty quickly. I have to imagine that NHC will issue TS watches for the Keys and maybe SFL unless we see drastic changes with the 12z models. They may be a bit more proactive in this instance knowing that people are pretty distracted right now and may not be paying attention to the weather.

UGH. I'm in northeastern palm beach county near juno. Supposed to leave this afternoon for a weekend of camping just up the road at Jonathan Dickenson state park. Probably should rethink that

[ObsessedMiami]

Low level vorticity and the heaviest convection now align with each other, I have to imagine we should see this start to develop pretty quickly. I have to imagine that NHC will issue TS watches for the Keys and maybe SFL unless we see drastic changes with the 12z models. They may be a bit more proactive in this instance knowing that people are pretty distracted right now and may not be paying attention to the weather.

UGH. I'm in northeastern palm beach county near juno. Supposed to leave this afternoon for a weekend of camping just up the road at Jonathan Dickenson state park. Probably should rethink that

Based on the rain forecast alone from earlier in the week, I would have already cancelled!