ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Isaias looks like is running into some westerly shear this morning, it looks like it got displaced from the MLC, not looking as good on Satellite compared to 6 hrs ago.

[GCANE]

Looks like about right where its supposed to be.
Doesn't mean the forecast track will change down the road.

[jlauderdal]

Models shifting west while still initializing too far north. This could go further west than some people are thinking.

it could or the initialization on the gfs is wrong and causing the westward movement in the solution

[Steve H.]

Alright, is it me or does this storm's structure look less together than last night? Smaller also. Could be morning eyes!!

[GCANE]

Tower had in-the-clear rain-rate measurement of 44 mm/hr.
Enough to support continued heating of the core.

[Vdogg]

Alright, is it me or does this storm's structure look less together than last night? Smaller also. Could be morning eyes!!

It is less structured due to interaction with Hispaniola but it is also strengthening. Structure will improve as it pulls away from the island.

[eastcoastFL]

Bought my generator! That should keep him clear of Martin County now... Hopefully he runs into more upper level winds that can keep it from any rapid intensification.

[GCANE]

No issue with boundary layer moisture ahead of this.

[Highteeld]

Alright, is it me or does this storm's structure look less together than last night? Smaller also. Could be morning eyes!!

It looks tilted based off recon data

[jlauderdal]

Bought my generator! That should keep him clear of Martin County now... Hopefully he runs into more upper level winds that can keep it from any rapid intensification.

Did you already go this morning?

[GCANE]

Feeder Band just clearing the tip of Haiti and getting into the water.
Next couple pressure readings will indicate if it can increase inflow or not.
Rain-rate measurements indicate core is capable of continued warming.

[eastcoastFL]

Bought my generator! That should keep him clear of Martin County now... Hopefully he runs into more upper level winds that can keep it from any rapid intensification.

Did you already go this morning?

Yep just got home. Got a Briggs and Stratton. 8500 starting 6500 running some cords some gas cans. All set!

[Vdogg]

Deep convection firing again, getting some pinks. Appears to be nothing in the way of a good run of intensification so now we're going to see what this storm can really do. CDO already looks to be rebuilding. Looking at how much open and warm water it has before it starts running into any significant sheer, I think this has a chance to make a run at cat 3. Not a forecast, just an opinion.

[wxman57]

My first thought when I looked at satellite this morning was that it fell apart overnight. Current recon indicates about 50 kts, and a VERY small storm. Hasn't sampled NE side yet. Looks pathetic on satellite.

[GCANE]

Strong high-helicity hot tower firing up at the top-end of the feeder band.
Watching if this starts rotating.

[eastcoastFL]

Strong high-helicity hot tower firing up at the top-end of the feeder band.
Watching if this starts rotating.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGpEWK.png

Do you think Florida could face some tornadoes from the storm this weekend?

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to appear on visible. You can see some of the convection firing up

[NDG]

I asked this yesterday, has there been any NOAA G-IV Sypnotic missions done yet? I see one scheduled but for tomorrow.
We need to sample the ridging to the north & east of Isaias, latest models are showing it stronger than previous runs. How strong it stays it will make a big difference to the track when it starts heading poleward.

[NDG]

My first thought when I looked at satellite this morning was that it fell apart overnight. Current recon indicates about 50 kts, and a VERY small storm. Hasn't sampled NE side yet. Looks pathetic on satellite.

Good morning, Isaias ruined it for you, sorry you have to work this weekend, again

[eastcoastFL]

Florida has closed COVID testing sites now ahead of Hurricane Isaias and they’ll reopen after the storm passes. I guess that’s the first affect of the storm in Florida.