ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jhpigott]

Low level vorticity and the heaviest convection now align with each other, I have to imagine we should see this start to develop pretty quickly. I have to imagine that NHC will issue TS watches for the Keys and maybe SFL unless we see drastic changes with the 12z models. They may be a bit more proactive in this instance knowing that people are pretty distracted right now and may not be paying attention to the weather.

UGH. I'm in northeastern palm beach county near juno. Supposed to leave this afternoon for a weekend of camping just up the road at Jonathan Dickenson state park. Probably should rethink that

Based on the rain forecast alone from earlier in the week, I would have already cancelled!

No kidding. Looks like the updated Hydrologic Outlook has 7-10 inches of rain incoming. And given the saturated ground from October's rains, looks like a foregone conclusion we will at the very least (irrespective of the winds) see some extensive flooding here in SE FL

[Blown Away]

Wow, the 06z GFS, HWRF, and HMON have landfall range from @Miami to Boca Raton then drift and/or loop over or just W of Florida for 2-3 days... Can’t imagine the rainfall estimates...

[SFLcane]

Wow, the 06z GFS, HWRF, and HMON have landfall range from @Miami to Boca Raton then drift and/or loop over or just W of Florida for 2-3 days... Can’t imagine the rainfall estimates...

Yes, was just looking at this. Irene 99 potential here or worse.

[HurricaneFrances04]

NHC latest 3AM cone shows Eta crossing Cuba at almost the lowest elevations of the whole island

Yeah, I think dry air will be more of an inhibiting factor than Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

UGH. I'm in northeastern palm beach county near juno. Supposed to leave this afternoon for a weekend of camping just up the road at Jonathan Dickenson state park. Probably should rethink that

Based on the rain forecast alone from earlier in the week, I would have already cancelled!

No kidding. Looks like the updated Hydrologic Outlook has 7-10 inches of rain incoming. And given the saturated ground from October's rains, looks like a foregone conclusion we will at the very least (irrespective of the winds) see some extensive flooding here in SE FL

The amount of rain that Florida, and in particular, the Hobe Sound area has had this year is off the charts. The mountain bike trails at Jonathan Dickinson have been closed due to flooding for a good part of the year since May. My two boys love riding there. Between the flooding and COVID, our time at JDSP has been severely impacted this year. If we get the amount of rainfall I'm expecting, the trails will most likely be closed well past the new year. More importantly, some residential areas of Hobe Sound have seen severe amounts of flooding this year with many homes impacted. Eta is just pouring salt on that wound.

[SFLcane]

06z euro into the southern tip of FL peninsula even clips west coast.

[Emmett_Brown]

Eta will have a full 36 hours over the very warm waters before Cuba, will it outperform like many storms this season? Since Eta will be moving to the NE at a steady pace over the NW Caribbean, it will be moving along the same vector as the upper level winds so shear may be less of a hinderance at least for the next 2 days. Cat 1 Hurricane seems possible.

[SouthFLTropics]

First visible of the morning... Looks like some pretty good high cloud tops developing to the Northeast of Roatan.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is an impressive shot... Plenty of fuel to work with across the Caribbean. And plenty of warm waters between South Florida and Eta.

[Blown Away]

Eta on the move NE and picking up speed...

[AutoPenalti]

It’s weird to see no one on the road seems to be aware of what’s going on. I believe it’s that Friday “gotta-end-workweek”.


Hell, if I didn’t decide to have my work monitor on the NHC, my boss wouldn’t have thought there was a potential hurricane coming our way.

[wxman57]

Those of you in south Florida note that the same strong high pressure that will drive Eta west past Florida will produce quite a strong pressure gradient north of Eta. Eta's TS wind field would more than double in size to the north Sunday and Monday. This could mean TS winds along the east coast of Florida all the way past Cape Canaveral. The wind field should shrink on Tue/Wed/Thu as high pressure moves off to the east. Eta may not still be a TS when it makes landfall in the FL Panhandle early next Friday. It may not produce much rain in the Panhandle, either, given all the dry air surrounding it.

[Nuno]

It’s weird to see no one on the road seems to be aware of what’s going on. I believe it’s that Friday “gotta-end-workweek”.


Hell, if I didn’t decide to have my work monitor on the NHC, my boss wouldn’t have thought there was a hurricane coming our way.

I'm concerned about this... It seems with the election, pandemic, and general sense that the season ended people in SFL will be caught off-guard.

[Evil Jeremy]

It’s weird to see no one on the road seems to be aware of what’s going on. I believe it’s that Friday “gotta-end-workweek”.


Hell, if I didn’t decide to have my work monitor on the NHC, my boss wouldn’t have thought there was a hurricane coming our way.

I’m not surprised that this has flown under the radar in Florida on this particularly week.

Might need to pick up sandbags if these precipitation estimates hold.

[Blown Away]

Those of you in south Florida note that the same strong high pressure that will drive Eta west past Florida will produce quite a strong pressure gradient north of Eta. Eta's TS wind field would more than double in size to the north Sunday and Monday. This could mean TS winds along the east coast of Florida all the way past Cape Canaveral. The wind field should shrink on Tue/Wed/Thu as high pressure moves off to the east. Eta may not still be a TS when it makes landfall in the FL Panhandle early next Friday. It may not produce much rain in the Panhandle, either, given all the dry air surrounding it.

What are your thoughts on a hurricane landfall on the Florida SE coast shown on some of the recent models??

[NDG]

No question where the surface low pressure is, might be a bit elongated for now.

[chaser1]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Eta 2.0 will be a very different T.S./Hurr. on approach to S. Florida. I'm still sticking to this being a sub-tropical looking (albeit impressive 990 ish mb) storm or minimal hurricane. Just so long as a greater deepening does not occur last moment and on approach, it'll at least be a manageable event for most homeowners. Will be important to see whether development and model trends change in terms of intensity during the upcoming 24 hours.

Given the timing of things and the upcoming weekend, I have to believe that NHC will hoist T.S. Watches for S. Fla mainland and Hurricane Watches for the Keys late this afternoon sometime

[Blown Away]

No question where the surface low pressure is, might be a bit elongated for now.

https://i.imgur.com/8WCghcd.gif

What would you estimate the Lat/Long and direction it’s moving?

[NDG]

It’s weird to see no one on the road seems to be aware of what’s going on. I believe it’s that Friday “gotta-end-workweek”.


Hell, if I didn’t decide to have my work monitor on the NHC, my boss wouldn’t have thought there was a hurricane coming our way.

I’m not surprised that this has flown under the radar in Florida on this particularly week.

Might need to pick up sandbags if these precipitation estimates hold.

A repeat of Zeta in Nola with Eta for S FL is likely, but nothing at this time is pointing at 100+ mph winds, but likely Cat 1 wind gusts could still surprise them.

[NDG]

No question where the surface low pressure is, might be a bit elongated for now.

https://i.imgur.com/8WCghcd.gif

What would you estimate the Lat/Long and direction it’s moving?

I will have to see as the day goes by now that the low pressure center is forming offshore.