ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

I would argue Isaias is already off the track to the SW.

[eastcoastFL]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Isaias looks like is running into some westerly shear this morning, it looks like it got displaced from the MLC, not looking as good on Satellite compared to 6 hrs ago.

https://i.imgur.com/xHZMLri.png

Some of the models that had a weaker system showed this. Hopefully this is good news for the Bahamas.

[DestinHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/WONRrZc.jpg
I would argue Isaias is already off the track to the SW.

And heading seems south of NHC track. Looks WNW to me.

[wxman57]

Winds on the north side are blowing away from the center - SE? Still, only 45-50 kts there so far.

[NDG]

Florida has closed COVID testing sites now ahead of Hurricane Isaias and they’ll reopen after the storm passes. I guess that’s the first affect of the storm in Florida.

Good news, I guess that means our positive cases will go down

[eastcoastFL]

535AM Local Product for Martin County

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Treasure Coast Counties.

Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across coastal areas from around Cape Canaveral southward.

Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

[NDG]

Definitely has weakened some this morning.

AF304 0709A ISAIAS HDOB 17 20200731
110500 2253N 07209W 6966 03206 0133 +079 +024 130026 029 027 007 00
110530 2251N 07210W 6969 03202 0143 +071 +023 124033 035 030 006 00
110600 2250N 07211W 6968 03202 0142 +070 +021 119040 045 030 007 00
110630 2248N 07212W 6964 03203 0132 +077 +018 115051 055 032 008 00
110700 2247N 07213W 6971 03196 0148 +065 +015 119052 054 032 009 00
110730 2246N 07214W 6965 03202 0145 +064 +013 114049 053 030 020 00
110800 2244N 07215W 6934 03242 0158 +055 +011 115056 060 050 047 03
110830 2243N 07216W 6965 03196 0163 +047 +008 113059 060 049 040 00
110900 2241N 07218W 6967 03195 0168 +044 +004 114056 059 043 031 00
110930 2240N 07219W 6975 03180 0152 +053 -002 122055 059 044 033 00
111000 2239N 07221W 6961 03202 0146 +058 -006 114040 053 047 038 00
111030 2237N 07222W 6977 03174 0142 +062 -007 110033 036 048 034 00
111100 2236N 07224W 6975 03190 0124 +080 -005 106034 038 046 019 00
111130 2235N 07225W 6969 03194 0127 +077 -004 110026 029 041 005 00
111200 2233N 07227W 6969 03194 0132 +073 -003 116027 028 038 010 00
111230 2232N 07228W 6963 03198 0130 +074 -002 117025 027 037 011 00
111300 2231N 07229W 6967 03192 0123 +079 -001 124023 024 039 009 00
111330 2229N 07231W 6967 03191 0133 +069 +001 126027 027 039 009 00
111400 2228N 07232W 6970 03190 0137 +065 +002 117031 035 038 012 00
111430 2227N 07234W 6968 03190 0140 +065 +003 120044 046 037 011 00

[tropicwatch]

Nice to have two planes flying the storm at once

[NDG]

Something is wrong with the AF's Extrap Pressure instrument.

[tropicwatch]

Nice to have two planes flying the storm at once. Unfortunately it appears that both planes are having some comm problems.

[Vdogg]

Definitely has weakened some this morning.

AF304 0709A ISAIAS HDOB 17 20200731
110500 2253N 07209W 6966 03206 0133 +079 +024 130026 029 027 007 00
110530 2251N 07210W 6969 03202 0143 +071 +023 124033 035 030 006 00
110600 2250N 07211W 6968 03202 0142 +070 +021 119040 045 030 007 00
110630 2248N 07212W 6964 03203 0132 +077 +018 115051 055 032 008 00
110700 2247N 07213W 6971 03196 0148 +065 +015 119052 054 032 009 00
110730 2246N 07214W 6965 03202 0145 +064 +013 114049 053 030 020 00
110800 2244N 07215W 6934 03242 0158 +055 +011 115056 060 050 047 03
110830 2243N 07216W 6965 03196 0163 +047 +008 113059 060 049 040 00
110900 2241N 07218W 6967 03195 0168 +044 +004 114056 059 043 031 00
110930 2240N 07219W 6975 03180 0152 +053 -002 122055 059 044 033 00
111000 2239N 07221W 6961 03202 0146 +058 -006 114040 053 047 038 00
111030 2237N 07222W 6977 03174 0142 +062 -007 110033 036 048 034 00
111100 2236N 07224W 6975 03190 0124 +080 -005 106034 038 046 019 00
111130 2235N 07225W 6969 03194 0127 +077 -004 110026 029 041 005 00
111200 2233N 07227W 6969 03194 0132 +073 -003 116027 028 038 010 00
111230 2232N 07228W 6963 03198 0130 +074 -002 117025 027 037 011 00
111300 2231N 07229W 6967 03192 0123 +079 -001 124023 024 039 009 00
111330 2229N 07231W 6967 03191 0133 +069 +001 126027 027 039 009 00
111400 2228N 07232W 6970 03190 0137 +065 +002 117031 035 038 012 00
111430 2227N 07234W 6968 03190 0140 +065 +003 120044 046 037 011 00

I think that weakening is very temporary. Convection is really starting to fire off now.

[Do_For_Love]

Wow, so now we have a hurricane...or maybe *had* a hurricane I should say, lol. It looks like it's trying to deepen again IMO though. Maybe the weakening will keep it under the forecast intensity?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Aric nailed it. Mountains cut off supply to the power source, looks like it’s temporary though. Core is about to blow up again.

[Jevo]

My first thought when I looked at satellite this morning was that it fell apart overnight. Current recon indicates about 50 kts, and a VERY small storm. Hasn't sampled NE side yet. Looks pathetic on satellite.

Glad to see you are well again for another season. Waking up and taking a look this morning I thought the same and with the current forecast track and Florida being on the clean side I'm going to keep my plans of driving from South to Central Florida tomorrow morning. While it may be a bit breezy with an occasional fast passing shower this one is too small to really cause havoc on the clean side when its 50-80 miles offshore.

[xironman]

Two things affecting :

1. Obvious shear
2. The mountains of Hispaniola cut off the inflow for a long time, only now starting to recover

[eastcoastFL]

Florida has closed COVID testing sites now ahead of Hurricane Isaias and they’ll reopen after the storm passes. I guess that’s the first affect of the storm in Florida.

Good news, I guess that means our positive cases will go down

Are you the governor?

[Highteeld]

Does not appear to have hurricane strength at this time

[GCANE]

Strong high-helicity hot tower firing up at the top-end of the feeder band.
Watching if this starts rotating.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGpEWK.png

Do you think Florida could face some tornadoes from the storm this weekend?

Too early to tell.
I need to watch how helicity develops when it gets close.

[wxman57]

Isaias is about to reach the increasing wind shear area across the Bahamas. Not favorable for strengthening. Plane only found max of 50 kts so far. I see that 58-59 kt SFMR, but it's the same speed as FL wind.