ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Those of you in south Florida note that the same strong high pressure that will drive Eta west past Florida will produce quite a strong pressure gradient north of Eta. Eta's TS wind field would more than double in size to the north Sunday and Monday. This could mean TS winds along the east coast of Florida all the way past Cape Canaveral. The wind field should shrink on Tue/Wed/Thu as high pressure moves off to the east. Eta may not still be a TS when it makes landfall in the FL Panhandle early next Friday. It may not produce much rain in the Panhandle, either, given all the dry air surrounding it.

Thanks for the info wxman57! always appreciate your knowledgeable insight here. So I get that the system isn't going to be much once it does start to head into the gulf for the factors that you mention, plus any land interaction. But I think what most of us would like to know is what will the affects be for us central and south peninsula folks before that time. You touched on it that the wind field could expand due to the steep pressure gradient created by the high pressure system that will drive Eta west, but what about rainfall and overall intensity? What are the chances of hurricane conditions in south FL? Do you think the storm has a chance to intensify more than currently predicted? And finally what do you think Central Floridians can expect out of this if anything? Thanks, as always! :Edit: and obviously anyone else feel free to chime in as most of you are much more knowledgeable than I am on the subject.

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity on the increase:

[wxman57]

Those of you in south Florida note that the same strong high pressure that will drive Eta west past Florida will produce quite a strong pressure gradient north of Eta. Eta's TS wind field would more than double in size to the north Sunday and Monday. This could mean TS winds along the east coast of Florida all the way past Cape Canaveral. The wind field should shrink on Tue/Wed/Thu as high pressure moves off to the east. Eta may not still be a TS when it makes landfall in the FL Panhandle early next Friday. It may not produce much rain in the Panhandle, either, given all the dry air surrounding it.

What are your thoughts on a hurricane landfall on the Florida SE coast shown on some of the recent models??

I'm thinking there is very little difference between the predicted 65 mph and 74 mph. Nothing magical happens at 74 mph. Typical intensity forecast error 2-3 days out is 15-25 mph.

[TheStormExpert]

Flood Watch for coastal SE Florida from Jupiter southwards until Tuesday evening starting tonight.

[Blown Away]

Is the developing LLC under the convection ball @17.8N/86.5W or is it farther W of the convection ball?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ObsessedMiami]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

[Nuno]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

Knowing Carvahlo, he'll make us try to teach MSO...

[TheStormExpert]

Based on the rain forecast alone from earlier in the week, I would have already cancelled!

No kidding. Looks like the updated Hydrologic Outlook has 7-10 inches of rain incoming. And given the saturated ground from October's rains, looks like a foregone conclusion we will at the very least (irrespective of the winds) see some extensive flooding here in SE FL

The amount of rain that Florida, and in particular, the Hobe Sound area has had this year is off the charts. The mountain bike trails at Jonathan Dickinson have been closed due to flooding for a good part of the year since May. My two boys love riding there. Between the flooding and COVID, our time at JDSP has been severely impacted this year. If we get the amount of rainfall I'm expecting, the trails will most likely be closed well past the new year. More importantly, some residential areas of Hobe Sound have seen severe amounts of flooding this year with many homes impacted. Eta is just pouring salt on that wound.

Here in Palm Beach Gardens we’ve received over 20 inches since September 30th. Can’t imagine what an additional 6-12 inches or more could do.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1324724192399388674

[SFLcane]

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY

[AutoPenalti]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

[SFLcane]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

Slight problem, you might have no power.

[ObsessedMiami]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

Most places are hybrid models. We have a good deal of physical classes. Of course, no power- no internet

[Iceresistance]

2 Recon planes are expected into Eta later today

[AutoPenalti]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

Slight problem, you might have no power.

FWIW, during Irma (despite us being on the eastern side of the storm) we had a power reduced to only the essentials.

Granted we only received gusts of 60mph but our power never really went out. Maybe it will be the same this time.

[storminabox]

Some teachers are starting to talk about Eta at UMiami!

[ObsessedMiami]

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

Slight problem, you might have no power.

FWIW, during Irma (despite us being on the eastern side of the storm) we had a power reduced to only the essentials.

Granted we only received gusts of 60mph but our power never really went out. Maybe it will be the same this time.

I was in Kendall for Irma and we lost power for four days. Lots of trees uprooting lines.

[SFLcane]

Public transit cannot operate if sustained winds are expected to be higher than 40mph, but knowing classes are remote, I have no idea.

Slight problem, you might have no power.

FWIW, during Irma (despite us being on the eastern side of the storm) we had a power reduced to only the essentials.

Granted we only received gusts of 60mph but our power never really went out. Maybe it will be the same this time.

A prolonged period which this could be of 50+ winds will almost surely cause power outages.

[boca]

People here at my job weren’t aware of any storm coming towards us and the other few don’t think we will get anything out of this other than a typical rainy day.

[Nuno]

Slight problem, you might have no power.

FWIW, during Irma (despite us being on the eastern side of the storm) we had a power reduced to only the essentials.

Granted we only received gusts of 60mph but our power never really went out. Maybe it will be the same this time.

I was in Kendall for Irma and we lost power for four days. Lots of trees uprooting lines.

Slight problem, you might have no power.

FWIW, during Irma (despite us being on the eastern side of the storm) we had a power reduced to only the essentials.

Granted we only received gusts of 60mph but our power never really went out. Maybe it will be the same this time.

A prolonged period which this could be of 50+ winds will almost surely cause power outages.

Power flickered here in the Gables like 15 times yesterday... I'll lose power in the first band that passes through.