ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

CAMS

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/pe ... =pensacola

https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/the ... -live-cam/

https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/zek ... ve-webcam/

https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/blu ... -live-cam/

https://www.navarrelistings.com/navarre-beach-webcam

https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/for ... am-garden/

https://www.gulfbreezerecovery.com/webcam/

[wx98]

4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 15
Location: 29.5°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[Javlin]

Fort Morgan has gone from 29.54 to 29.50 in 40 minutes!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fmoa1

[InnerarityIsland]

Our new location farter east. Perdido key. Where we will stream from. Looks like best landfall point.

https://www.facebook.com/10212035498142 ... 984972564/

I’m on Innerarity Island in Perdido Bay... my dock is barely hanging on. Lots of flooding in the neighborhood already. Steady wind and rains all day.

[wx98]

Fort Morgan has gone from 29.54 to 29.50 in 40 minutes!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fmoa1

If this comes in around there instead of further east, then it will have more time over water in Mobile Bay and Gulf Shores will get the brunt of the surge.

[NDG]

So when is the next Recon?

[aspen]

So when is the next Recon?

https://i.imgur.com/Cq5UzXe.gif

Wow, that’s getting together quickly. Reminds me of how rapidly Hanna’s eyewall finally got itself together prior to landfall.

This recon gap will probably be a good thing because it’ll give Sally time to strengthen before it’s sampled again, making for a more interesting/exciting first pass.

[ClarCari]

So when is the next Recon?

https://i.imgur.com/Cq5UzXe.gif

What’s funny and real sad at the same time is if this were a normal moving system I woulda told you there’s no chance another plane could get out there before landfall,..but with this storm I could probably drive here from San Antonio, Texas all the way to Mobile and STILL make it before landfall

[Javlin]

Fort Morgan has gone from 29.54 to 29.50 in 40 minutes!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fmoa1

If this comes in around there instead of further east, then it will have more time over water in Mobile Bay and Gulf Shores will get the brunt of the surge.

She's on the move now 29.47 now lost .03 in 6 mins amazing!

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Wind definitely picking up now. I am about 3 miles west of Mobile Bay.

[Blow_Hard]

I have a question. On the NHC site where they have the Table for Wind Speed Probabilities and the other Graphics...why doesn't the Wind Speed Graphic (with all the pretty colors) correspond to the Wind Probs Chart. I guess I do not understand how to correctly read that chart. Anyone care to explain the difference between the two?

Thanks in advance.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone know if any flooding has occurred yet?

[Bamagirl2408]

I think this comes in Fort Morgan. Any other landfall predictions?

[RL3AO]

I have a question. On the NHC site where they have the Table for Wind Speed Probabilities and the other Graphics...why doesn't the Wind Speed Graphic (with all the pretty colors) correspond to the Wind Probs Chart. I guess I do not understand how to correctly read that chart. Anyone care to explain the difference between the two?

Thanks in advance.

Code: Select all



               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

WHITING FLD FL 64  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

It accumulates the probability of having a certain wind (34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt) by those time frames. So if we take the hurricane wind line, they have a 0% chance (hence the x) of 64kt winds in the first 12 hours, a 9 percent chance in the 06z to 18z Wednesday frame, and a 3 percent chance in the next 12 hours with 0 percent after that. The final cumulative chance is 12 percent chance of hurricane winds in the next 120 hours which is what the chart plots.

[DestinHurricane]

I think this comes in Fort Morgan. Any other landfall predictions?

Perdido Key, where Aric is.

[wx98]

I think this comes in Fort Morgan. Any other landfall predictions?

In the last recon fix it was headed straight at Fort Morgan, but we all know wobbles can change actual landfall by a few miles.

[SconnieCane]

4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 15
Location: 29.5°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Pressure dropping but winds weakening...temporary lag? Safe to say the micro-core of yesterday is gone; and this will likely be one of those storms with a fairly broad windfield that's not exceptionally strong at its center. Unlikely to rapidly intensify, but also resilient to anything more than slow weakening in the face of shear.

[NDG]

So when is the next Recon?

https://i.imgur.com/Cq5UzXe.gif

Wow, that’s getting together quickly. Reminds me of how rapidly Hanna’s eyewall finally got itself together prior to landfall.

This recon gap will probably be a good thing because it’ll give Sally time to strengthen before it’s sampled again, making for a more interesting/exciting first pass.

I am sure on the first pass of the next recon will find pressure well down into the mid 970s or close to it.

[DestinHurricane]

I think this comes in Fort Morgan. Any other landfall predictions?

In the last recon fix it was headed straight at Fort Morgan, but we all know wobbles can change actual landfall by a few miles.

It's going to turn NE some most likely.

[Steve]

Fort Morgan has gone from 29.54 to 29.50 in 40 minutes!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fmoa1

If this comes in around there instead of further east, then it will have more time over water in Mobile Bay and Gulf Shores will get the brunt of the surge.

She's on the move now 29.47 now lost .03 in 6 mins amazing!

Note the super heavy band in radar right on the western tip of the eastern shore.