ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

TS warnings yes, hurricane watches/warnings will greatly depend on if it can maintain or re-intensify. The environment out ahead in The Bahamas must be more hostile than some have thought, even you were mentioning this days ago.

Indeed conditions don’t look great. Even the normally bullish CMC has been consistently weak into Florida.

[SFLcane]

Expansion of TS or Hurricane Watches/Warnings both South and North in Florida is very likely at 11AM.

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1289180 ... 89600?s=21

[Jevo]

Hit or miss.. this this thing is going to be dealing with so much westerly shear that it can be sitting over Freeport and Boca would have breezy sunny skies.

All the convection will be to west so it could be sitting over Boca and Boca have sunny skies with a breeze.

That’s not how it works.

Hah yeah I agree with that. The ender of worlds aka Dorian was sitting 60 miles off of Fort Lauderdale beach and I was outside mowing my lawn in a pleasant breeze. I can’t count the amount of time We’ve been on the clean side of these grazers and were better off using our sprinklers to get water to the lawn rather than hope for some storm rain. Will still keep an eye on it but not changing plans just yet or dusting off the shutters

[BobHarlem]

:eek:


Expansion of TS or Hurricane Watches/Warnings both South and North in Florida is very likely at 11AM.

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1289180 ... 89600?s=21

That seems pretty obvious, even if nothing changed with the track, and south only because the system keeps shifting west of forecast. Hurricane watches are the more complicated thing. Probably Hurricane Watches, Tropical Storm Warnings.

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:


Expansion of TS or Hurricane Watches/Warnings both South and North in Florida is very likely at 11AM.

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1289180 ... 89600?s=21

...and of course twitter has "#cat2" trending...
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Cat%202 ... rend_click

[DestinHurricane]

Quick question for the collective group here - i live on south shore long island on the water. My home and neighborhood were decimated by Sandy. Should i be worried with this one? The models aren't looking to good for southern New England...

We don't even know what will happen around Florida yet. It's way too early to know what impacts will be like in the northeast. Keep watching and have a plan.

[hohnywx]

Quick question for the collective group here - i live on south shore long island on the water. My home and neighborhood were decimated by Sandy. Should i be worried with this one? The models aren't looking to good for southern New England...

Hello from NY...no reason to worry yet. Just keep an eye on the storm and see how things progress today and tomorrow. Many options still on the table.

[Highteeld]

This is rapidly falling apart this morning

[Kat5]

This is rapidly falling apart this morning

Indeed it is, might open up to a wave by tomorrow. Too much shear in its path.

[shiny-pebble]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

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[eastcoastFL]

:eek:


Expansion of TS or Hurricane Watches/Warnings both South and North in Florida is very likely at 11AM.

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1289180 ... 89600?s=21

...and of course twitter has "#cat2" trending...
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Cat%202 ... rend_click

Well the nhc does have a cat 2 forecasted in the next 24 hours

[artist]

Quick question for the collective group here - i live on south shore long island on the water. My home and neighborhood were decimated by Sandy. Should i be worried with this one? The models aren't looking to good for southern New England...

It’s really too early to tell, unfortunately. Just keep checking in here and the NHC. Here you will get an idea of how things are changing pretty quickly, usually. Look for the pro met posts. There are quite a few very good amateurs, but unless you’ve been here awhile, it can be hard to know who they are.

[cheezyWXguy]

Moves over the mountains and strengthens, moves over the water and weakens. I give up

[Highteeld]

Looks like a majority of the LLC is getting exposed.

[Jevo]

Moves over the mountains and strengthens, moves over the water and weakens. I give up

Welcome to 2020

[Ian2401]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

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yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

[eastcoastFL]

This is rapidly falling apart this morning

Of course it is! I bought a generator this morning. That’s how it works. Those models showing a weak TS into Florida might be right but I wouldn’t count the storm out yet. The nhc has been saying for days it would encounter sheer at this point but then gain steam again as it got closer to Florida

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it's starting to pick up inflow.

[Do_For_Love]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

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I believe it was expected yesterday that the storm would weaken following Hispaniola interaction and then start to strengthen again, peaking as a low-end Cat 1. I was sorta surprised it was already a hurricane this morning. However, the NHC did up the intensity forecast to 100MPH so it kinda raised expectations.

[BobHarlem]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

There's a reason the NHC is reluctant to make big sweeping changes.