ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

That large TPW front stretching across north of this is going to pinch off any large amount of dry air trying to entrain into this.
It may swallow a little and have a few burps next couple days, but it'll likely get back on its feet.
Its building a ton of momentum. It'll take a lot to slow this puppy down.

[Kingarabian]

CMC big props.

[sma10]

How quickly things can turn in the tropics. And the Euro is showing another system behind this one.

Could we really be ahead of 2005 soon? Wow

Yes, EPS is signaling some nasty possibilities with the system behind

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

CMC big props.

Indeed. Quite the coup for a less-mentioned model to get the drop on Seven here.

[AutoPenalti]

I guess the crazy uncle isn’t so crazy after all...

Huge credit to the CMC for sniffing this out way before every other model, was it recently upgraded?

[Nimbus]

Doesn't appear to be any undercutting shear and the convective burst noted at sunset has persisted.
Not moving very fast which gives the models more time.
I don't see any TUTT activity ahead either so potentially this one could be trouble.

[Aric Dunn]

sustained towers wraping around.. TS by 11pm if this keeps up.

[Hammy]

I guess the crazy uncle isn’t so crazy after all...

Huge credit to the CMC for sniffing this out way before every other model, was it recently upgraded?

Last year I believe. It's also the only one that hasn't been routinely spinning up phantom storms in the EPAC so whatever they did, it certainly seems like it's modeling the atmosphere better than the GFS (which the phantom storm issue may have been over-corrected)

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1285683362930339842

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1285683362930339842

"Steady strengthening is expected as it moves westward in the coming days"

Yeah where has THAT thought been. Interesting. #2020 gonna 2020 or what?

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1285683362930339842

"Steady strengthening is expected as it moves westward in the coming days"

Yeah where has THAT thought been. Interesting. #2020 gonna 2020 or what?

It is almost never steady strengthening lol ...

[Hurrilurker]

Entering gulf as a 45-50 KT TS, well away from the mountains of Hispaniola, yikes. Plenty of time and open water to generate, the question is, will there be something to pull it more northward after that point?

[gatorcane]

Global models really don’t make this into anything in the medium to long range. Conditions don’t look favorable in the Caribbean as would be expected this time of year
It’s life looks ephemeral indeed.

[supercane4867]

Blow up of convection over CoC into sunset.

[Ivanhater]

Global models really don’t make this into anything in the medium to long range. Conditions don’t look favorable in the Caribbean as would be expected this time of year
It’s life looks ephemeral indeed.

While I agree this will probably have a tough time making it all the way through the Caribbean, the global models didn't see this forming at all.

It is important to use globals as a tool. How many times have we seen global models miss these small systems

[alan1961]

I'll just put this in here if nobody has seen it yet..sure it will change as we go along

[AutoPenalti]

Blow up of convection over CoC into sunset.

https://i.imgur.com/NRpXOl7.gif

It should start establishing a CDO by DMAX

[toad strangler]

Global models really don’t make this into anything in the medium to long range. Conditions don’t look favorable in the Caribbean as would be expected this time of year
It’s life looks ephemeral indeed.

Less than a week ago you were highlighting how global models have NOTHING into August. Remember? It seems like you are moving the goal posts.

[Aric Dunn]

if the center is truly where the curved band of deep -80+ convection is then we are well farther a long than a depression..

[shiny-pebble]

In my amateur opinion, I would say this is around 60MPH.... It's organizing fast

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk