ATL: MARCO - Models

[canetracker]

UKMET heads up toward the North Gulf Coast in the general direction of Louisiana. Barely moving at all near the end of the run. Keeps it weak.

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.5N 86.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 19.5N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 20.5N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.2N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 23.8N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 26.1N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 27.7N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.0N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 28.1N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 28.2N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2020082012&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Check out 102-144hr on the UKMET. It look's like a fujiwara effect???

[SoupBone]

Euro right in line with NHC and tvcn

TVCN is now over Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana and a huge shift east from the prior one.

[supercane4867]

12z UKMET makes sense.

When two cyclones get this close they will certainly start interact with each other. A forecaster's nightmare is shaping up.

[Steve]

Re that UKMET Loop - yeah, that's a trip. It's in a way similar to the Canadian last few runs where the trailing storm is moving much, much faster and just comes through pushing TD #14 back and then possibly opening up an alleyway for whatever is left. I'm not necessarily buying in on it, but it's for sure interesting.

[catskillfire51]

but when ukmet stalls TD 14, TD13 is still off the tip of Florida Keys, i don't see it causing the stall unless I am missing something

[La Breeze]

If this system has a still strong closed circulation after going after the Yucatan, then I don't see any reason that this doesn't have a chance to bomb out to at least a Cat. 3.

I certainly hope this would not be the case - help us if it does!

[PTrackerLA]

Just noticing how much 14 slows down as it nears the LA coast and after landfall, could mean some big-time rains

[canetracker]

Re that UKMET Loop - yeah, that's a trip. It's in a way similar to the Canadian last few runs where the trailing storm is moving much, much faster and just comes through pushing TD #14 back and then possibly opening up an alleyway for whatever is left. I'm not necessarily buying in on it, but it's for sure interesting.

Agree. I am not buying into too much of anything right now. But if something like that were to happen, we can chalk another one up for 2020.

[FixySLN]

I wouldn't be surprised to see another shift to the east tonight.

[HurricaneBrain]

TVCN is East of GFS, Euro, and CMC... That makes perfect sense.

[Steve]

HWRF @ 1am Tuesday morning - TS landfalls in West Cote Blanche Bay (which means White Side Bay I guess) near western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton, Centerville areas just past Morgan City). HWRF leaves the circulation behind and the convection goes north pretty quickly. IDK about all that.


HMON straight up Mobile Bay

[Steve]

Both of the hurricane models are fairly weak (1002, 1003) and north-weighted systems.

[SoupBone]

I'm wondering now with the latest TVCN shift east, if we'll see a much larger shift east in the next advisory, or will they wait until a few more model runs take place.

[Cerlin]

If models are in general shifting east, would that increase chances for interactions with TD13 as well?

[stormlover2013]

just one shift, no reason to shift it to much maybe little east

[BigB0882]

I don't expect any big swing East when you are 5 days out. They can nudge it a bit or even leave it where it is and wait for more model runs and the recon data to help out. They don't want to have to go back West on the next run of models. NHC will play it safe with 5 days to go.

[SoupBone]

just one shift, no reason to shift it to much maybe little east

You're right they typically don't make large changes. But the shift was a pretty big distance than the previous models. I forget, what model blend does the TVCN use?

[Audrey2Katrina]

For whatever it's worth, and I'm sure it's not much. I'm seeing 14 head up almost for Vermilion Bay and then veer slightly west but with hPa around 1004 or thereabouts I just can't see a major coming out of this and thank God--I hope that holds up. I've been calling for 13 to wind up somewhere between Pensacola and Mobile Bay and it's looking pretty good as educated guesses go. Anything can happen of course. The UKMET sees it as a 999 at landfall somewhere between Mobile Bay and Pensacola, Others I've seen have it right into Mobile Bay. This will be a very confused scenario at the very least for Gulf Coast residents. I'm praying neither one goes major and just brings rain with obviously some winds--SE Texas could use a bit of rain, and would love to see it move into central Texas which is parched, at least from what my friends there tell me.

[Blow_Hard]

I wouldn't be surprised to see another shift to the east tonight.

Levi said last night that a stronger storm would feel that trough and likely move more poleward while a weaker TC would move more westerly. IMHO I think we are seeing the extreme of the East component and I still favor a more SW La to SE TX landfall.

[stormlover2013]

Stormgeo is little bit west of NHC on there new updated path.