ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

I’m skeptical of anything calling for a Cat 5 this early but I’m not loving the idea of intensity guidance starting to trend up.

All I’m saying is if the NHC starts advisories they almost always follow the TVCN very closely and based on the 00z guidance there would likely be a a track showing a hurricane near 23N/75W in 5 days...

I agree, but there’s really no way around it. It’s still not a TD so they can’t classify it yet. We’re almost always in the cone in the first advisory and probably will be this time too. If it gets named at 11pm tomorrow we’ll be 5 days out.

I think we will see a PTC issued tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

All I’m saying is if the NHC starts advisories they almost always follow the TVCN very closely and based on the 00z guidance there would likely be a a track showing a hurricane near 23N/75W in 5 days...

I agree, but there’s really no way around it. It’s still not a TD so they can’t classify it yet. We’re almost always in the cone in the first advisory and probably will be this time too. If it gets named at 11pm tomorrow we’ll be 5 days out.

I think we will see a PTC issued tomorrow.

Was just about to post this.

[eastcoastFL]

I agree, but there’s really no way around it. It’s still not a TD so they can’t classify it yet. We’re almost always in the cone in the first advisory and probably will be this time too. If it gets named at 11pm tomorrow we’ll be 5 days out.

I think we will see a PTC issued tomorrow.

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

[Blown Away]

I think we will see a PTC issued tomorrow.

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

If the NHC is giving any serious consideration to the sudden turn of events with the 00z guidance, advisories will begin very soon, like tonight or morning, given the proximity of the track into the SE Bahamas and closing in on SFL... I’m sure taking a look at the 00z GFS/Euro Globals would be a priority before pulling trigger...

[DestinHurricane]

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

If the NHC is giving any serious consideration to the sudden turn of events with the 00z guidance, advisories will begin very soon, like tonight or morning, given the proximity of the track into the SE Bahamas and closing in on SFL... I’m sure taking a look at the 00z GFS/Euro Globals would be a priority before pulling trigger...

That's exactly what a PTC is for. They can't officially classify until it's actually a TD which it isn't as of now.

[BobHarlem]

I think we will see a PTC issued tomorrow.

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

PTC is only if they need to issue watches/warnings, which its too far away even from the Caribbean islands to do right now, at least until tomorrow night or Thursday maybe.

[eastcoastFL]

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

If the NHC is giving any serious consideration to the sudden turn of events with the 00z guidance, advisories will begin very soon, like tonight or morning, given the proximity of the track into the SE Bahamas and closing in on SFL... I’m sure taking a look at the 00z GFS/Euro Globals would be a priority before pulling trigger...

They’ll probably wait for the morning runs and see if they shift right. Fingers crossed. TVCN earlier was straight across the islands now it’s up through the Bahamas

[eastcoastFL]

Was just about to post this.

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

PTC is only if they need to issue watches/warnings, which its too far away even from the Caribbean islands to do right now, at least until tomorrow night or Thursday maybe.

Well they may need to issue TS watches for the islands further east by tomorrow. They’re already about 72 hours out from potential TS conditions.

[GeneratorPower]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

Need I say more. Look at this. This is trouble.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

Need I say more. Look at this. This is trouble.

Long nights ahead. Good news is it’s far enough away that you can get any supplies you may not have before everyone else hit the stores when the cone goes up.

[SFLcane]

I never quite understood what the requirements were for them to issue PTC? Why do they sometimes do that and sometimes wait until it’s a TD ? Does it have to be close to land?

If the NHC is giving any serious consideration to the sudden turn of events with the 00z guidance, advisories will begin very soon, like tonight or morning, given the proximity of the track into the SE Bahamas and closing in on SFL... I’m sure taking a look at the 00z GFS/Euro Globals would be a priority before pulling trigger...

They’ll probably wait for the morning runs and see if they continue to shift right also. Fingers crossed. TVCN earlier was straight across the islands now it’s up through the Bahamas curving

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

00z TCVN is not curving away from Bahamas or FL.

[psyclone]

the point of a ptc is to issue watches/warnings for land threatened. so the disturbance needs to at least meet that 48 hour threshold for watches. the nhc is giving us a 90% development chance inside of 48 hours.

[SconnieCane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

Need I say more. Look at this. This is trouble.

Hi, Irma...

[DestinHurricane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

This just screams Irma to me. I mean track and not intensity.

[eastcoastFL]

If the NHC is giving any serious consideration to the sudden turn of events with the 00z guidance, advisories will begin very soon, like tonight or morning, given the proximity of the track into the SE Bahamas and closing in on SFL... I’m sure taking a look at the 00z GFS/Euro Globals would be a priority before pulling trigger...

They’ll probably wait for the morning runs and see if they continue to shift right also. Fingers crossed. TVCN earlier was straight across the islands now it’s up through the Bahamas curving

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

00z TCVN is not curving away from Bahamas or FL.

https://i.imgur.com/hDEpTPY.jpg

Yah I read it wrong and edited it. Unfortunately.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

This just screams Irma to me. I mean track and not intensity.

Yah definitely getting the same feel track wise. I just learned that HWRF did very well with Irma on track...

[Hurricaneman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

This just screams Irma to me. I mean track and not intensity.

Let’s hope not on intensity but anything could happen and this pattern is extremely dangerous

[tiger_deF]

On one hand this system is still fairly broad and disorganized, on the other hand conditions ahead are ripe with extremely warm SST's and relatively low amounts of dry air. The sheer amount of convective debris around 98L could be indicative of a large storm size once it does end up forming

[cheezyWXguy]

Popping some good convection near the estimated center. If this trend continues I expect classification tomorrow

[HurricaneEdouard]

I'm not buying the models' sudden turn (or more like initialized immediate movement) northwest; the western vortex, and indeed the overall Invest, is moving west. Either way, if this avoids a Georges-like track and skirts south into the Caribbean or misses the islands to the north, I think we'll see major Hurricane Laura by next week. HWRF might be bullish on intensity, but it nailed 2017 (and Irma specifically), and I'm getting Irma vibes from this one.

Overall I wouldn't be too conservative with this system. Every once in awhile, seasons come along where SSTs and atmospheric conditions are so favourable that you end up being more right than not simply by betting the more extreme outcomes will happen (even if you do end up looking like a hypecaster), particularly if SSTs are warm enough to allow extreme outcomes (which they are, in 98L's path). 2005 and 2017 are examples of this, and I believe all the indications are there that 2020 will be such a season. I'm willing to bet this will be the first major hurricane, and the first major hurricane to threaten land, of the season.