ATL: DELTA - Models

[CrazyC83]

Despite this, I wouldn't move the track farther west YET since the caveat about the slower track is involved.

[SoupBone]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_26_ens.gif

Despite this, I wouldn't move the track farther west YET since the caveat about the slower track is involved.

Why not though, the globals have been consistent with west shifts all day. I don't get why it's not raising more eyebrows.

[Bamagirl2408]

My elementary question is if Gamma is on life support, while I understand the steering influence it has on Delta, why do the HWRF and HMON models still redevelop it and send into Gulf coast a day later than the Delta models? Are the models confusing the interaction of the 2? Old runs? Or will it come back to life?

[Steve]

My elementary question is if Gamma is on life support, while I understand the steering influence it has on Delta, why do the HWRF and HMON models still redevelop it and send into Gulf coast a day later than the Delta models? Are the models confusing the interaction of the 2? Old runs? Or will it come back to life?

Good question. Maybe it gets absorbed or maybe the center still hangs out for a while and comes back. I don't know what's going to happen. It could follow the flow.

Early Cycle Guidance is maybe 25 miles east of the late cycle 18z tracks.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

Late (18z) EPS
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... l_late.png

Finally, early cycle intensity is mostly Cat 2/3 through 3 days and then 2/1 around day 4 which would be around landfall Friday.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

[St0rmTh0r]

So many things dependent on timing and strength of the storm

[Steve]

NAM 12km (which is an 84 hour run) gets an eastern component before the end. It’s not reliable and can have a right bias but it’s 969 and looks to be hooking toward SELA for landfall at 84 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=84

More importantly on the NAM is the trough that opens up across Oklahoma, Dallas and into parts of eastern Texas. Look at the yellow drip.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=84

[Wx_Warrior]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What ya say Steve? Third times a charm it definitely looks like for us this go around. Can’t believe we have had them go west, East and now look to be the target this go around. Wednesday afternoon/Thursday is going to be a mess around here if nothing drastically changes by Wed morning, but on the other hand will be interesting in seeing how complacent people may have become after the many false alarms.

[Steve]

Hey Mike. I think it’s going to be close one way or the other, and I feel like being closer to the core may matter. It will get bigger in the Gulf but its overall wind field isn’t very big. Discussion had TS like 60 nm from the center. Ima watch it for a couple days but I am scheduled remote tomorrow. So I plan on going to the grocery when I wake up just to re-up on some food and drink.

Also why can’t Apple figure out its vs it’s. It changes what I type to wrong literally every time. Edit is in.

[Fancy1001]

Icon model run is trash, starts off 20 mb too weak at 1001mb.

[Steve]

Icon model run is trash, starts off 20 mb too weak at 1001mb.

The model initializations (pressure) were addressed by one of our pros earlier today. It’s still a little bit of a western outlier with the track maybe along with the Euro.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS early maps are tracking a bit east of the prior run for a change. Let’s see where Delta goes.

[Shawee]

NAM 12km (which is an 84 hour run) gets an eastern component before the end. It’s not reliable and can have a right bias but it’s 969 and looks to be hooking toward SELA for landfall at 84 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=84

More importantly on the NAM is the trough that opens up across Oklahoma, Dallas and into parts of eastern Texas. Look at the yellow drip.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=84

I like that finger of high pressure pushing in at the end. I’m still leaning towards an eastern trend as some models are initializing north of circulation. We have a cabin rented this weekend at cypremort point on Vermilion Bay, but thinking the trout will be safe, from us at least.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS early maps are tracking a bit east of the prior run for a change. Let’s see where Delta goes.

Later 0Z GFS maps have it in about same location as the 18Z GFS and a bit stronger.

[Steve]

Actual GFS looks to get west of 91.7 on NHC 11pm discussion it’s got 958mb and slightly intensifying still through 78h

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=78

[Keldeo1997]

GFS has a very favorable upperlevel environment in the west central gulf

[Steve]

Hey Mike FWIW, GFS hits you guys in BR/Ascension with at least some Cat-1 action. Looks like Houma, Raceland up through Laplace and Hammond over to BR gets the core. Last system with that sort of track once slightly inland is maybe Cindy 05 but 40 miles to the west or so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=102

[Wx_Warrior]

[Horn1991]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/R7PsZjZ/1.png [/url]

Yeah, they don’t need that.

[PTrackerLA]

00z UKMET with a significant shift west into Vermilion Bay/Marsh Island/New Iberia.