ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro hour 66 landfall:

[FixySLN]

Must be doing the Marco-shear tangle again.

Marco is North and East of it's expected track/location. Models might be picking up on that and seeing something other don't. I dunno. Another hair puller tonight?

[Highteeld]

Must be doing the Marco-shear tangle again.

Pretty much.

[MBryant]

What a difference a few hours make. I live at the intersection of Rita and Humberto. From a couple of minimal storm to another significant storm possibility isn't going to be fun with such a short time frame for decision making.

Rita, Ike, Harvey and Imelda were enough.

Sorry for the rant.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is much stronger than the 12z run but not as strong as the 00z run. So when you see a model this volatile while other models like the UKMET and the GFS are consistent you get the idea that the latter should be favored. Because even though the Euro is weaker than the UKMET and GFS it HAS shown solutions just as strong as theirs.

So when we say to discount certain solutions by the Euro it's not because people want to see a stronger system, it's due to the model having eyebrow raising issues.

[eastcoastFL]

More like 3 billion or more. Port Arthus has a ton of refineries too. Crude prices should go up if this materializes. < And as you go toward Houston, the SHip Channel area and Channelview all along the Galveston bay waterfront is loaded with chemical plants and refineries. Not a good situation.

Oil prices will probably go up on the open tomorrow just because of the threat. I imagine all the rigs have been evacuated in the gulf by now. I’m curious to see how strong this euro run ends

[ATCcane]

18z Euro looks like Laura still dances with Marco and that leads to the landfall further east again. Overall pretty weak compared to other guidance as well.

[cybercane]

18z Euro looks like Laura still dances with Marco and that leads to the landfall further east again. Overall pretty weak compared to other guidance as well.

wouldnt trust those euro's right now until we have a storm in the GOM. period

[Beef Stew]

Yet another nuclear HWRF run — 926 mbar and 167 kt 850 hPa-level winds before landfall at 00z Thursday.

The worst part is I wish I could come up with a good reason to call this crazy but I can’t. It seems outlandish but currently it’s completely possible.

That's the thing- it's crazy just because of the rarity at which upper-end CAT 4 and CAT 5 landfalls occur in the CONUS. At the same time, what's really keeping this from verifying? It certainly isn't the 31C SST's, lack of shear, or absence of SAL/dry air. That being said, a lot can change in a matter of days, and there could certainly be unforeseen factors that inhibit intensification to a storm the likes of which some of the more bullish model runs are showing. Ultimately though, the ceiling is very high for Laura.

[Blinhart]

So is it possible Marco could form a wall that forces Laura to move North around Vermillion Bay to Sabine Pass.

[gqhebert]

I'm really curious to see what the 00z Euro will show.....did the 18z initialize accurately? Did it have Marco as a 1005mb low again?

[ATCcane]

18z Euro looks like Laura still dances with Marco and that leads to the landfall further east again. Overall pretty weak compared to other guidance as well.

wouldnt trust those euro's right now until we have a storm in the GOM. period

No it clearly seems to be the outlier at this point. Looking forward to seeing the ensemble run from 18z to see if it continues the theme of stronger members going further west.

[toad strangler]

Yet another nuclear HWRF run — 926 mbar and 167 kt 850 hPa-level winds before landfall at 00z Thursday.

The worst part is I wish I could come up with a good reason to call this crazy but I can’t. It seems outlandish but currently it’s completely possible.

That's the thing- it's crazy just because of the rarity at which upper-end CAT 4 and CAT 5 landfalls occur in the CONUS. At the same time, what's really keeping this from verifying? It certainly isn't the 31C SST's, lack of shear, or absence of SAL/dry air. That being said, a lot can change in a matter of days, and there could certainly be unforeseen factors that inhibit intensification to a storm the likes of which some of the more bullish model runs are showing. Ultimately though, the ceiling is very high for Laura.

The furthest west of the four recorded Cat 5 US landfalls was Camille in 1969 along the Mississippi Gulf Coast near Waveland, MS

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro intensifying quickly right at landfall. I'd imagine a track towards SW LA instead of SE would have gotten Laura into the 960's easily. Houston all the way to New Orleans needs to be preparing.

[SoupBone]

18z Euro intensifying quickly right at landfall. I'd imagine a track towards SW LA instead of SE would have gotten Laura into the 960's easily. Houston all the way to New Orleans needs to be preparing.

It's again why we don't hug a single model, model run, or even one set of model runs. Still lots of things can change. I've seen a lot of people posting about this exiting Cuba and that's where a consensus will form. I have to agree with that.

To make a cheesy football reference, if we were playing Laura in a football game, we're about to enter the 4th quarter.

[HouTXmetro]

EURO is usually the outlier left, now it's consistently going to the right with Laura. Should we read much into the consecutive SE LA landfalls or is it case of garbage in, garbage out with the initialization?

[rockyman]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

[HouTXmetro]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

Yeah, I know better. EURO usually sniffs out changes before the others.

[Nuno]

18z Euro intensifying quickly right at landfall. I'd imagine a track towards SW LA instead of SE would have gotten Laura into the 960's easily. Houston all the way to New Orleans needs to be preparing.

It's again why we don't hug a single model, model run, or even one set of model runs. Still lots of things can change. I've seen a lot of people posting about this exiting Cuba and that's where a consensus will form. I have to agree with that.

To make a cheesy football reference, if we were playing Laura in a football game, we're about to enter the 4th quarter.

Those of us who have been tracking since its days as an invest feel like we're at halftime. The second half begins once she exits Cuba

[SoupBone]

For the record too, the Euro is not all alone on an island. He has his Crazy Uncle to keep him company.