ATL: LAURA - Models

[Nederlander]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

Yeah, I know better. EURO usually sniffs out changes before the others.

This Euro isn’t the Euro of old... That being said, if it verifies, I’ll never distrust it again.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

i agree, but the euro is only the "euro" in name this season so far. it is has been busting more frequently than it nails its usual bold calls.

[SoupBone]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

Yeah, I know better. EURO usually sniffs out changes before the others.

This Euro isn’t the Euro of old... That being said, if it verifies, I’ll never distrust it again.

And I seem to recall that the CMC has actually done ok this season, so is it a wash?

[Kingarabian]

I don't disagree with the Euro's track. From Houston to SE-LA it's all in play. But I will disregard its intensity forecast because it's a fact that it's not the models strengtn.

CMC has gotten much better on track but its intensity forecasts are hot garbage.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[ronjon]

I don't disagree with the Euro's track. From Houston to SE-LA it's all in play. But I will disregard its intensity forecast because it's a fact that it's not the models strengtn.

CMC has gotten much better on track but its intensity forecasts are hot garbage.

Don't forget that the 18z GFS takes almost 20 hrs longer to reach the SE Tx coast. That also could be a factor between 950s mb vs 979 mb depicted in the 18z Euro.

[Blinhart]

00Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/cHdb1VRt/13-L-tracks-00z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/tCsmgdxk/13-L-intensity-00z.png

Yeah, that is exactly what I wanted to see a Cat 3 going straight up Vermillion Bay with a NNW movement.

[Javlin]

The worst part is I wish I could come up with a good reason to call this crazy but I can’t. It seems outlandish but currently it’s completely possible.

That's the thing- it's crazy just because of the rarity at which upper-end CAT 4 and CAT 5 landfalls occur in the CONUS. At the same time, what's really keeping this from verifying? It certainly isn't the 31C SST's, lack of shear, or absence of SAL/dry air. That being said, a lot can change in a matter of days, and there could certainly be unforeseen factors that inhibit intensification to a storm the likes of which some of the more bullish model runs are showing. Ultimately though, the ceiling is very high for Laura.

The furthest west of the four recorded Cat 5 US landfalls was Camille in 1969 along the Mississippi Gulf Coast near Waveland, MS

http://i.ibb.co/2K9pzKZ/Camille-1969-track.png

Such blasphemy on a weather board

[Stormcenter]

So many are hating on the EURO because it
doesn’t agree with the other models. I just
don’t get that.

[FixySLN]

So many are hating on the EURO because it
doesn’t agree with the other models. I just
don’t get that.

To be fair, this would be more cut and dry most times. If it were just Laura and I saw an ensemble like we're seeing, I wouldn't doubt the Euro was out to lunch. In this case, there are a lot of unknowns. There was a point where the 00z (I think) was the first one to show a large Western shift, and that was considered an "outlier" until the other models followed suit. We could see it again. It's 2020 and we've got two systems entering the Gulf. A lot of the pro mets on Twitter have literally shrugged and stated the information shared is a best guess because of the limitless possibilities and unknowns.

Appreciate the boards more so than ever during events like this. Many Thanks.

[Nederlander]

So many are hating on the EURO because it
doesn’t agree with the other models. I just
don’t get that.

I’m certainly not disregarding it, I think the solution is quite plausible IF Cuba disrupts Laura significantly and she has a hard time getting her act together. If not, I don’t see the Euro solution verifying. The ensembles are really telling in conjunction with how Laura is actually performing. It will either be yet another coup by the Euro, or the king has officially fallen (at least until adjustments are made). But I also wouldn’t be surprised with a solution somewhere in between the two camps.

Edited to add that the weaker/eastern Euro solution has Laura’s traversing nearly the entire island. Satellite trends indicate that’s not a likely scenario.

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.

[Hammy]

So many are hating on the EURO because it
doesn’t agree with the other models. I just
don’t get that.

Perhaps because the last time it disagreed with the rest of models it forecast an open wave instead of the 60 mph tropical storm we have. It's not a good intensity model.

[MississippiWx]

Euro solution is certainly not weak. While I think it’s a bit too far to the East, it just shows the forecast is not as clear cut as some spaghetti model plots make it seem. Anytime you have significant interaction with land, expect the unexpected.

[Kazmit]

Discard back to back Euro runs at your own peril.

i agree, but the euro is only the "euro" in name this season so far. it is has been busting more frequently than it nails its usual bold calls.

I recall back-to-back euro runs of a tropical wave passing through the Greater Antilles.

[jaguars_22]

So let’s see if the nam switches to Louisiana too along with the euro. It’s been showing mid Texas to upper Texas... is the Nam good at all with track or anything lol

[tolakram]

So let’s see if the nam switches to Louisiana too along with the euro. It’s been showing mid Texas to upper Texas... is the Nam good at all with track or anything lol

Good with upper levels, sometimes good with track under certain conditions. Bad with intensity. General answer is no.

[Ken711]

[Tireman4]

A pro met at KTRK stated on his Facebook page at 5 pm this evening that he spoke with an insider at the NHC that stated the UKMET has been the best performer this year. Just throwing out there. I am just an amateur. I know no nothing. Lol.

[1900hurricane]

A pro met at KTRK stated on his Facebook page at 5 pm this evening that he spoke with an insider at the NHC that stated the UKMET has been the best performer this year. Just throwing out there. I am just an amateur. I know no nothing. Lol.

That has been the case thus far. On the flip side, it has been worse than the GFS and ECMWF thus far for Marco.

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1297624256390606848