ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2861 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:51 pm

Last good visible shot for today. I can’t tell if the squalls coming through here in Martin county are Marco or Laura. Gotta be Marco, right?



Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2862 Postby rigbyrigz » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:52 pm

Levi's late afternoon update suggests the LLC and MLC of Laura are (perhaps completely) stacked now vertically, so these center distinctions may be moot going forward.

He also is mindful of both Cuban mountains AND Hispanola still affecting the inflow and outflow of a broad storm like this at present; inhibiting intensification, even if the "center" is over water.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2863 Postby Visioen » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:52 pm

Once again with the ridiculous convection. Those are some serious updrafts.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2864 Postby wx98 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:53 pm

abk_0710 wrote:I am assuming New Orleans can't yet let their guard down?

Not until it has gone by with no chance of turning back.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2865 Postby LSU Saint » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:54 pm

This just keeps inching closer and closer to Houston
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2866 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:56 pm

The LLC now just NW of the Naval Base, if it keeps moving WNW is will be traveling through a channel of lower terrain north of the higher Sierra Maestras.

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Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2867 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:58 pm

Visioen wrote:Once again with the ridiculous convection. Those are some serious updrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/TM2oc0c.gif



The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2868 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:00 pm

NDG wrote:The LLC now just NW of the Naval Base, if it keeps moving WNW is will be traveling through a channel of lower terrain north of the higher Sierra Maestras.

https://i.imgur.com/09DsaNl.gif


If you go check out the HWRF (running right now), your line is basically what it's showing.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2869 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2870 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:04 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Visioen wrote:Once again with the ridiculous convection. Those are some serious updrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/TM2oc0c.gif



The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2871 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:08 pm

Radar showing the LLC is now well inland, will indeed avoid the Sierra Maestras do the SW of it now.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2872 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:09 pm

aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Visioen wrote:Once again with the ridiculous convection. Those are some serious updrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/TM2oc0c.gif



The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2873 Postby Homie J » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.

Nearly all models had it north of the GAs yesterday morning IIRC.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2874 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:16 pm

Homie J wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.

Nearly all models had it north of the GAs yesterday morning IIRC.


The HWRF was pretty much a northern outlier by then. Most all other models had abandoned their north of PR/Hisp tracks before the HWRF. So, the HWRF has been a laggard/follower.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2875 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:17 pm

LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.

It definitely has a bias for bombing systems out, but Laura will be tracking into the Gulf with 29-31C SSTs, very little wind shear, and dual outflow channels for a total of 40-48 hours. That’s a just about perfect environment for bombing out.

Also, all the models have been caught off guard by Laura’s more southern track.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2876 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:18 pm

LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.


Remember when the Euro was a wide right on FL just days ago?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2877 Postby galvestontx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:21 pm

LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.


I hope you are absolutely right and its sooooo far off. Because I dont want any part of that, at all.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2878 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.


Remember when the Euro was a wide right on FL just days ago?


I remember the Euro having no TC at all for the longest period. It has not done well at all. But that has nothing to do with my comments about the HWRF not doing well. And even the Euro abandoned its N of PR/Hisp track before the HWRF did. I just don't get the love for the HWRF.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2879 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:25 pm

aspen wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Visioen wrote:Once again with the ridiculous convection. Those are some serious updrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/TM2oc0c.gif



The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.


Agreed. Hopefully it’s a case of the model over doing intensity and not repeat of Dorian when HWRF was the only one bombing it out while the others were forecasting it to dissipate
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2880 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:29 pm

LarryWx wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.


Remember when the Euro was a wide right on FL just days ago?


I remember the Euro having no TC at all for the longest period. It has not done well at all. But that has nothing to do with my comments about the HWRF not doing well. And even the Euro abandoned its N of PR/Hisp track before the HWRF did. I just don't get the love for the HWRF.


Actually it was 12z Euro Monday that had a formidable Laura wide right of the SE coast. Wow that was a long time ago now. My bad.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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