ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#2881 Postby **GCANE** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:35 am

CAPE is increasing for that close infeed into Isaias.
At 2000 now, lets see how it progresses.

DestinHurricane · #2882 Postby **DestinHurricane** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:38 am

It seems like its right on track with NHC forecast now. I'm thinking if the ridge is stronger it might scrape PB county, that's as west as it will go.

TheStormExpert · #2883 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:41 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:I fully expect TS watches to be converted to TS warnings for a decent chunk of the FL east coast given westerly shift in some models. Don't think they go to a Hurricane Watch now, but rather wait to see how storm does today vs. shear and/or to see how midday models shake out. If trends continue and shear eases, expect that at 5 p.m.

Yeah depending how this storm fares the rest of today will determine if Hurricane Watches/Warnings are necessary.

FireRat · #2884 Postby **FireRat** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:46 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
Ian2401 wrote:yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

It’s so crazy how everyone is calling time of death on this storm and it’s been struggling for what, an hour? It’s survived worse. Let’s see where we’re sitting at the end of the day.

Exactly. And sure enough, an hour later we have a round of deep convection firing off right over the center. Patience is a virtue in hurricane watching!

Hey all, I could not agree more!
It's funny how we go to bed and wake up to something completely different, happens most of the time.
Well, just as quickly as things changed in 8 hours, things can change again over the next 8 hrs, we gotta be less ADHD with Isaias and other storms down the road.

I know tracking this storm is exciting for many of us, but the
truth is no one wants to see a Major hurricane causing destruction in FL or the Bahamas. This is the worst year to get a landfall like this, and this could lead many of us to optimistically downplay a threat as well, but we should avoid -removed- either up or down and instead look at the cold hard facts and data...

Isaias certainly weakened some overnight, probably back to a TS right now, mainly due to the shear and Hispaniola finally interrupting it somehow (but damn it sure took its sweet time to do so). However, this is likely not the end of the system as some seem to be calling. According to the shear map, the current shear really drops off near FL and the Bahamas. In addition to this, the SSTs are 85-86 degrees. Tempting as it may be, we cannot write off this storm, that's just absurd!!

Isaias will most likely begin strengthening back to a Cat 1 tomorrow or Sunday once he is off the FL coast in that more favorable environment... not die off. We gotta be realistic, this storm almost certainly won't be a Cat 5 but it could attain Cat 2 over the gulf stream, and the Bahamas may get quite a hit. FL hopefully lucks out, and should do so as long as Isaias follows the middle of the forecast track. Still not out of the woods, but this ain't a for-sure FL threat like Andrew was for example.

Despite seemingly good news for FL, no one should sleep on this storm as a precaution, it is in a very risky region it the Atlantic. The 1935 hurricane probably went from what Isaias is now to a C5 in two days. This scenario is not what Isaias is forecast to do of course, but this goes to show you can't turn your back on this storm until it is north of your latitude. Bottom line, we should take the middle path and not be over bearish or bullish with this storm and others down the road!

wx98 · #2885 Postby **wx98** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:46 am

What remains to be seen is if Isaias can intensify once it starts to curve up the coast. I personally don’t think we will see a full Florida landfall, but probably a scrape up the coast like Matthew. When it gets off the GA/SC coast, we could see decent strengthening up the coast in my opinion. A respectable Cat 1 or 2 is certainly not out of the question. I know it is struggling now but that certainly does not mean it will be struggling in a couple days.

#2886 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:46 am

Convection starting to cover LLC again. Slightly SW of 8am track IMO...

Aric Dunn · #2887 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:47 am

About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

#2888 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:47 am

We are so used to seeing storms in Isaias’ position turn east of Florida with tracks shifting more east, if this comes back more west and brings TS or minimal hurricane conditions to metro SE Florida, I think many will be shocked. But note the track forecast error still leaves much of metro South Florida in the storm’s track. So the NHC couldn’t be blamed.

#2889 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

You have been on it!

#2890 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:49 am

HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

TheStormExpert · #2891 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:49 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gFybIqu.gif
Convection starting to cover LLC again. Slightly SW of 8am track IMO...

It looks to be trying but today will definitely be the day to watch and see if that can maintain. All we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

#2892 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

Andros Island is the mark, over or south of it leaves not enough room to recurve and miss FL from westward moving system.

eastcoastFL · #2893 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:51 am

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

So can you be under a TS Warning and Cane watch?

Weatherboy1 · #2894 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

Exactly right. It's looking like it will be a VERY close call. And if midday models shift the consensus even closer (probably about 40/50 miles off coast here in northern Palm Beach County, give or take), then that's going to raise a lot of concern … particularly if shear eases up even slightly. We'll see.

Vdogg · #2895 Postby **Vdogg** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:52 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gFybIqu.gif
Convection starting to cover LLC again. Slightly SW of 8am track IMO...

LLC also starting to gain decent latitude again. It was nearly due west for a couple of hours.

#2896 Postby **marciacubed** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:52 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

Happy Birthday to me :double:

#2897 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:52 am

eastcoastFL wrote:A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

So can you be under a TS Warning and Cane watch?

yep, you can be under both at the same time

eastcoastFL · #2898 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

Do you think it’ll maintain strength? Also are you going to chase?

Aric Dunn · #2899 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:53 am

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.

Andros Island is the mark, over or south of it leaves not enough room to recurve and miss FL from westward moving system.

Does not even have to be that far assuming the general track shape stays the same. Right line is the NHC track..

the other three are the same NHC track moved forward in 6 hours increments roughly.

about 22N 75 west is critical point. thats coming very soon.

wx98 · #2900 Postby **wx98** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:53 am

Kept it as a minimal hurricane:

11:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31
Location: 21.7°N 74.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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