ATL: LAURA - Models

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Beef Stew
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2921 Postby Beef Stew » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:13 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
 0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29


woah, thats pretty far west. Is that the UKMET?


Well west... would put landfall just slightly south of Houston.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2922 Postby shah83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:13 pm

Ukmet strong into Freeport, it seems, while CMC doesn't strenthen this much at all.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2923 Postby Torgo » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:14 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
 0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29



Just west of Houston. One of the worst places for it to make landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2924 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:14 pm

00z UKMET is a 948mb major probably west of Galveston or Houston. Sorry my geography is still lacking.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2925 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:14 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
 0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29


woah, thats pretty far west. Is that the UKMET?

Yeah, that's the UKMET.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2926 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:18 pm

Was a little surprised NHC shifted so far east with the 18z GFS still over Beaumont but either they knew already about thr 18z or are just the pros. I know the answer but I'm impressed nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2927 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:18 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
 0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29


woah, thats pretty far west. Is that the UKMET?

Yeah, that's the UKMET.

41 miles inland at 948 mb bodes poorly for Texas

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2928 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:18 pm

Image

heres an idea of the ukmet coordinates
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2929 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:18 pm

Is that a West shift for the UKMET? If so from where?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2930 Postby Haris » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:20 pm

If the center relocations more south, I see UKMET is extremely possible scenario. Tonight will be key.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2931 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:20 pm

Big shift west for the CMC

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2932 Postby Haris » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:20 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Is that a West shift for the UKMET? If so from where?

Beaumont area I believe
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2933 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:21 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Is that a West shift for the UKMET? If so from where?


12z was at bolivar peninsula
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2934 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:22 pm

SoupBone wrote:Big shift west for the CMC

[url]https://i.imgur.com/ImJZakV.png[url]

Expecting a Euro west shift then.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2935 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:23 pm

Hmon just started, started good but takes a sharp north track from hour 3 to hour 6
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2936 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:23 pm

HMON may be trying to pick up on the possible center relocation being discussed in the main discussion thread. 00hr seems to initialize correctly, then jumps south at 03hr, followed by a return to the previous center at 06hr.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2937 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:26 pm

Are the models trending weaker?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2938 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:28 pm

Hammy wrote:Are the models trending weaker?


They don't appear to be, no. GFS was a little weaker, but UKMET was about the same.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2939 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:28 pm

Hammy wrote:Are the models trending weaker?

Well taking intensity estimates from global models won't be accurate. The hurricane models continue to show Cat.4 or greater pressures.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2940 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:30 pm

Hammy wrote:Are the models trending weaker?

So far, compared to their last runs, the ICON (963) is stronger, UKM (948) and CMC (994) are slightly stronger, and the GFS (969) is weaker. HMON running now.

So in short: No, not really.
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