ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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galvestontx
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2941 Postby galvestontx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:57 pm

As of now is Houston pretty much ok? Is Laura going to stay on the Louisiana side of the border?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2942 Postby SootyTern » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:58 pm

MBryant wrote:If the current forecast of 15 inches with a fast moving storm holds. That would not be bad. Harvey was 60+ and Imelda was 40+ and scattered. Now my only concern is a Rapid Intensification Cycle. RITA devastated the area with widespread trees snapped (Pines) or uprooted (Oaks).

Is there a place the most current individual models are located?


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Hey, good luck up there!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2943 Postby Haris » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:59 pm

galvestontx wrote:As of now is Houston pretty much ok? Is Laura going to stay on the Louisiana side of the border?


Somewhat but super close. Threat is faaaar from over.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2944 Postby Homie J » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:01 pm

galvestontx wrote:As of now is Houston pretty much ok? Is Laura going to stay on the Louisiana side of the border?

Not in the clear yet. Still plenty of uncertainty and time for things to change. Keep a good eye on it if you're in Houston.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2945 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:05 pm

galvestontx wrote:As of now is Houston pretty much ok? Is Laura going to stay on the Louisiana side of the border?


No, the left-most models still take it to Galveston, and if it went that way, you'd probably deal with a very intense hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2946 Postby Haris » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:07 pm

I have a friend in Corpus Christi. What're the odds it goes there
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2947 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:08 pm

nlosrgr8 wrote:Sorry, my question was a mess... what I want to ask is what is pushing Marco to travel west after landfall, while Laura travels north?


The mixture of a building ridge and the interaction between Marco and Laura as they get close to each other.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2948 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:09 pm

Haris wrote:I have a friend in Corpus Christi. What're the odds it goes there

No model guidance suggests that currently, but doesn’t hurt to stay tuned into the NHC advisories
Last edited by Nederlander on Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2949 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:09 pm

What an odd situation we had squally storms earlier from Marco and now they're moving in from Laura. NW Florida is getting weather from Marco Now and SE Florida from Laura. Only in 2020.

We had more rain today than we did from Isaias

Image
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2950 Postby TXWeatherMan » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:09 pm

Haris wrote:I have a friend in Corpus Christi. What're the odds it goes there

Not very likely. I think Matagorda is as far west as it could go.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2951 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:12 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.


I disagree, I think the causation is the other way around. Storms that are slower and farther left simply get more time over the Gulf. Just my opinion though.


Chicken and egg? Sure they have more time, but if you look at Marco who may have a lot more time (at the surface) and will weaken? Maybe sometimes it is the extra time. Maybe sometimes it's the pattern and something coming up west or northwest gets stronger because of that.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2952 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:15 pm

Deleted post.
Last edited by sphelps8681 on Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2953 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:17 pm


So where IS the center? On IR it looks like it may be south of Cuba right now, but I know that can be deceiving.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2954 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:19 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:Just saw it again. The weather channel showing a landfall on the east side of louisiana and this time I saw a Tx/LA landfall during the same broadcast. Strange they can't pick the model they have confidence in.


Ones probably Marco and one Laura. Sounds like they’re confusing folks.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2955 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:19 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.


I disagree, I think the causation is the other way around. Storms that are slower and farther left simply get more time over the Gulf. Just my opinion though.

What would cause a system to be slower and further left though? Just looking at the simple TAB suite, it looks like a stronger, deeper system would move closer to TABD while a weaker system follows more closely with TABS. That's the same type of spread we're seeing from the dynamic models. How the center interacts with Cuba is also going to play a role, but by the time guidance (in this case, the EPS) exits Cuba, the members are still clustered up pretty tightly. It's only after this point that more spread occurs in the solutions.

Image

Image

24 hours later, the spread increases considerably. All members have spent roughly the same time over the Gulf, but they've already started to sort themselves out by intensity, with the left side containing the stronger members.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2956 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:19 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:Just saw it again. The weather channel showing a landfall on the east side of louisiana and this time I saw a Tx/LA landfall during the same broadcast. Strange they can't pick the model they have confidence in.

The always show the NHC track as the official track, however sometimes they will refer to individual model runs.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2957 Postby StormSkeptic » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:25 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:

So where IS the center? On IR it looks like it may be south of Cuba right now, but I know that can be deceiving.


I think that is a fair question. Both Guantanamo and Santiago on the south shore of Cuba have been reporting SE winds for an hour or two, which would seem to indicate that the center is southwest of them over the water.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2958 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:26 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:

So where IS the center? On IR it looks like it may be south of Cuba right now, but I know that can be deceiving.


Sure looks like it’s just off the coast to the south

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 461&y=6691
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2959 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:28 pm

Haris wrote:I have a friend in Corpus Christi. What're the odds it goes there


As of now it looks unlikely but I wouldn't let my guard down there yet...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2960 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:34 pm

Image
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