ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2961 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:42 pm

it is kind of hard to deny now that there is something forming very near the Pilon radar site between Jamain and cuba.. Surface obs also now fit..

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2962 Postby MBryant » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:42 pm

1/2 half mile north if I-10, 2 miles west of the Sabine River. Right now a path similar to RITA . But after 50+ years following hurricanes, being the bullseye 40 hours out might not be a bad lace to be.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2963 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:45 pm

Sort of tangentially related to Laura...while the global model run solutions which consolidated Laura north of the GA were obviously incorrect, there does appear to have been a small weak/lobe of low-mid level vorticity that extends NNW from the outer envelope of Laura's circulation and impinging on SEFL/ECFL. It's given a bit of a "kick" to coverage/intensity the nocturnal convection along/offshore. Lightning has been visible to our south and east all evening, and now we're getting a thunderstorm here in Melbourne.

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Image

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2964 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:it is kind of hard to deny now that there is something forming very near the Pilon radar site between Jamain and cuba.. Surface obs also now fit..

https://i.ibb.co/SmCLF69/21323123131.gif

Looks like it may have the entirety of the Cuban waterfront to intensify before even reaching the gulf.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2965 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:48 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it is kind of hard to deny now that there is something forming very near the Pilon radar site between Jamain and cuba.. Surface obs also now fit..

https://i.ibb.co/SmCLF69/21323123131.gif

Looks like it may have the entirety of the Cuban waterfront to intensify before even reaching the gulf.


And it already went up to 65 MPH.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2966 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:49 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it is kind of hard to deny now that there is something forming very near the Pilon radar site between Jamain and cuba.. Surface obs also now fit..

https://i.ibb.co/SmCLF69/21323123131.gif

Looks like it may have the entirety of the Cuban waterfront to intensify before even reaching the gulf.

Yikes... That would not be good
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2967 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:51 pm

Image

Slight shift East. Looks like the NHC isn’t discounting the Euro/CMC solutions. Seems like a reasonable forecast track given the uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2968 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:52 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it is kind of hard to deny now that there is something forming very near the Pilon radar site between Jamain and cuba.. Surface obs also now fit..

https://i.ibb.co/SmCLF69/21323123131.gif

Looks like it may have the entirety of the Cuban waterfront to intensify before even reaching the gulf.


And it already went up to 65 MPH.


Being in the line of landfall this 2020 season for Laura and the ever changing tracks is enough. Next name up is Nana and I think she will be bringing her wooden spoon for sure!! LOL!! Trying to laugh a little. Back to the posts.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2969 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:53 pm

Nederlander wrote: https://i.ibb.co/qrjSzzm/DFFBEDC3-CD83- ... 2904-E.png

Slight shift East. Looks like the NHC isn’t discounting the Euro/CMC solutions. Seems like a reasonable forecast track given the uncertainty.


It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2970 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:56 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
nederlander wrote: https://i.ibb.co/qrjSzzm/DFFBEDC3-CD83- ... 2904-E.png

Slight shift East. Looks like the NHC isn’t discounting the Euro/CMC solutions. Seems like a reasonable forecast track given the uncertainty.


It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east


They are being responsible and not completely discounting the eastern outliers. Kind of splitting the difference if you will. Although I will say that the NHC track largely keeps Laura south of Cuba, indicating no major core disruption, whereas the euro keeps her over land for the entire Cuban trek.
Last edited by Nederlander on Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2971 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:57 pm

Nederlander wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote:
Nederlander wrote: https://i.ibb.co/qrjSzzm/DFFBEDC3-CD83- ... 2904-E.png

Slight shift East. Looks like the NHC isn’t discounting the Euro/CMC solutions. Seems like a reasonable forecast track given the uncertainty.


It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east


They are being responsible and not completely discounting the eastern outliers. Kind of splitting the difference if you will. Although I will say that the NHC track largely keeps Laura south of Cuba, indicating no major core disruption, whereas the euro keeps her over land for the entire Cuban trek.


Yeah I understand and they are the experts don't get me wrong, just feel like leaving it alone would have been just as good, a slight shift east might catch people in Texas off guard.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2972 Postby FixySLN » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:58 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote:
It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east


They are being responsible and not completely discounting the eastern outliers. Kind of splitting the difference if you will. Although I will say that the NHC track largely keeps Laura south of Cuba, indicating no major core disruption, whereas the euro keeps her over land for the entire Cuban trek.


Yeah I understand and they are the experts don't get me wrong, just feel like leaving it alone would have been just as good, a slight shift east might catch people in Texas off guard.


Could also save lives on the eastern side.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2973 Postby Beef Stew » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:00 pm

No changes on the intensity forecast near or at landfall, but they still included the snippet from earlier mentioning that Laura may approach the N. gulf as a major. While it depends somewhat on how things progress as Laura moves through/near Cuba, I wouldn't be surprised to see an 'M' in the cone by this time tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2974 Postby jasons2k » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:00 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote: It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east


They are being responsible and not completely discounting the eastern outliers. Kind of splitting the difference if you will. Although I will say that the NHC track largely keeps Laura south of Cuba, indicating no major core disruption, whereas the euro keeps her over land for the entire Cuban trek.


Yeah I understand and they are the experts don't get me wrong, just feel like leaving it alone would have been just as good, a slight shift east might catch people in Texas off guard.


I had the same thought. Let's see if we get a center reformation or tug into that deep convection to the south overnight. If that does happen, I just don't see the eastern solutions panning out.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2975 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:01 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote: It seems weird that almost all but the Euro and CMC take it to bolivar peninsula but they shift east


They are being responsible and not completely discounting the eastern outliers. Kind of splitting the difference if you will. Although I will say that the NHC track largely keeps Laura south of Cuba, indicating no major core disruption, whereas the euro keeps her over land for the entire Cuban trek.


Yeah I understand and they are the experts don't get me wrong, just feel like leaving it alone would have been just as good, a slight shift east might catch people in Texas off guard.

They probably averaged out all the models and ensembles and looking at all the other information they had and came out with this pretty descent looking track, even if they take it right over my head. If you look at this, https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL13, you will see there are ton of models, that isn't always put out there.
Last edited by Blinhart on Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2976 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:04 pm

I think we might be one advisory from having an “M” on the map
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2977 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:07 pm

Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2978 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png

Talk about throwing a wrench in the forecast. If this is legit I wonder what kind of model tracks I’ll wake up to tomorrow...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2979 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:09 pm

For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2980 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:10 pm

The new NHC track puts me in the right front quadrant. Pas bon. :eek:
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