ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

The thing to watch right now is the convection to the east. There's a hefty spin there on radar, with a beam height roughly corresponding to the 500mb level. Almost all global + mesoscale models show a relocation there, near or under the convection, followed by a quick spinup. If you believe the HRRR, that could be as soon as the next couple hours.

[wxman57]

I would think that the NHC should be starting PTC Six advisories, as it has a "high" chance of development and will be impacting land within 48 hrs (NJ coast). Those are their criteria. The NHC doesn't like starting advisories at 11pm, so perhaps they will initiate PTC advisories at 5am. It's still too disorganized to qualify for a depression. Maybe by tomorrow night...

If the winds will remain offshore and TS watches or warnings are not required, then such advisories would not be necessary.

Consensus has it inland into southern New England well within 48 hrs (before sunrise Saturday). NHC sticks close to consensus. I think that they're not yet confident enough in its future structure and intensity, so they are electing to hold off issuing anything. They're not required to initiate PTC advisories at any time, but they can elect to do so.

[Do_For_Love]

Yeah I mean, I guess its possible (20%) that this doesn't turn into anything remotely tropical and thus is outside the purview of the NHC. Perhaps with the increased scrutiny on some of the government agencies these days, they don't want to be seen as alarmist. However, there are some low lying areas near large bodies of water around here that could get some flooding tomorrow, and it seems to me like many people aren't even aware. Maybe a PTC wouldn't change that but it feels like there should be a bit more attention on it IMO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1281208679900086274

[Aric Dunn]

How cute... we are about to have a brand new mini satellite vort to watch lol ... the fact that it immediately started rotating tells you how broad and weak the pressure/wind field is.

[Aric Dunn]

just an FYI.

from radar and sat it appears a vort has developed close to the surface in that convection well to the NE of the main circ.

there are inflow cloud line that developed the last hour or so.

this should start pulling the larger main vort near Willmington to the ESE shortly and probably distort it.

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing over eastern NC.
MCS currently over the Outer Banks and moving inland.
Its slowly wrapping.
Going to be interesting later today when it taps into the broken off wave in the Bahamas.

[GCANE]

Looks like the convection over the Outer Banks is pushing out a mild outflow boundary into 98L's CoC.
This should create strong LL convergence to the NE of the CoC.
Watching if convection fires from that which would bring it in closer to the CoC.
Added lift from the CoC could enhance convection starting off a chain towers.

[Aric Dunn]

SW low level inflow into that deep convection ese of Hatteras is increasing very quickly.

looks like reformation is fully underway.

side not it has to about the NC to Virgina border before it hits much cooler waters.

so it will have to sit here for a day if it wants to deepen past a minimal TS>

[GCANE]

Convection appears to be located with the 500mb vort to the NE of the CoC.
The other vort to the NW, I saw earlier today, appears to have dissipated.

[GCANE]

Stacked 700mb to the surface.
Entraining high humidity air.

[aspen]

I hope the NHC designates this PTC-6 for the upcoming advisory.

[GCANE]

4 hours ago and nearly off-the-scale rain rate.
Once it drinks that wave's juice, fireworks could likely go off.

[GCANE]

Off scale on 85 GHz.

[MGC]

Thinking 98L will evolve slowly as long as the convection to the NE of the circulation robs moisture from feeding into the LLCC. Doubt 98L is upgraded today.....MGC

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like it is starting to try and wrap some of that convection to the east around itself. Not gonna take off quickly but maybe some gradual intensification until it is classifiable.

[Siker]

Inflow just significantly increased on the southwest edge of the new convective burst and the previous LLC is washing out. Likely to finally see relocation today. Guessing TC at 5 or 11pm.

[GCANE]

Looks like gravity waves forming in the cumulus over a good section of eastern NC.
Convection may fire in a few hours west of the CoC.

[Aric Dunn]

there wont be much left of our wilmington vort soon. its about to get eaten..

no upgrade for 11. but i bet we get a Special outlook in about an hour or so..

new circ is rapidly organizing.

[GCANE]

More moisture at the lower levels also slowing moving in.