ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

I can’t believe we’re seriously about to have Hanna on July 23rd. She’s going to obliterate Harvey ‘05 as the earliest 8th named Atlantic storm.

[HurricaneBrain]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

[ozonepete]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

YEah, they almost always start out conservatively. In this case the data supports a conservative outlook for now. Too bad there's not much time for error if it should pull a surprise RI.

[Aric Dunn]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

YEah, they almost always start out conservatively. In this case the data supports a conservative outlook for now. Too bad there's not much time for error if it should pull a surprise RI.

well going off the global models right now has not really helped much this season lol.

[aspen]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

YEah, they almost always start out conservatively. In this case the data supports a conservative outlook for now. Too bad there's not much time for error if it should pull a surprise RI.

I’ve been doubtful of a surprise phase of intensification, but looking at how tiny future Hanna is...maybe she could blow up quickly and exceed expectations. I still don’t think that’s likely as of now.

[typhoonty]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

YEah, they almost always start out conservatively. In this case the data supports a conservative outlook for now. Too bad there's not much time for error if it should pull a surprise RI.

well going off the global models right now has not really helped much this season lol.

Right? If I were in Texas I'd have Humberto 07 war-style flashbacks right now. I'm not saying that will happen, especially because the center was broad a few short hours ago. But, if DMAX causes an increased in concentrated convection, and recon finds a tight center, the environment ahead is pretty favorable.

[ozonepete]

Somewhat conservative intensity forecast:

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

YEah, they almost always start out conservatively. In this case the data supports a conservative outlook for now. Too bad there's not much time for error if it should pull a surprise RI.

well going off the global models right now has not really helped much this season lol.

Lol yes absolutely.

[Cataegis96]

Incredible. Two tropical cyclones spawned from tropical waves in one day. In mid-July. Roughly 1 month before peak season hits.

[Steve]

Incredible. Two tropical cyclones spawned from tropical waves in one day. In mid-July. Roughly 1 month before peak season hits.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[MarioProtVI]

I think NHC was way too quick to call this a TD. Latest ASCAT shows sharp trough and not closed. Should’ve been POTC like BT was. Not calling it a TD until I see a closed circulation confirmed.

[Hammy]

I think NHC was way too quick to call this a TD. Latest ASCAT shows sharp trough and not closed. Should’ve been POTC like BT was. Not calling it a TD until I see a closed circulation confirmed.

Plane confirmed it was closed earlier.

[EquusStorm]

I guess I'm surprised the convection is considered both organized and persistent enough to skip the PTC stage watching the loops. Convection may be over the center more or less but it seems confined to a very small area and is pulsing rather than truly persisting. Or I could be wrong I dunno, definitely keeps blowing up now so soon would be classifiable anyway. Recon truly makes the difference because I can't see this being upgraded without that data when Gonzalo was almost certainly classifiable when far more organized than this currently is. It certainly organized that LLC in a hurry

[CrazyC83]

I can’t believe we’re seriously about to have Hanna on July 23rd. She’s going to obliterate Harvey ‘05 as the earliest 8th named Atlantic storm.

The last time we had Hanna, it was named on October 27. And we never got any farther that year.

[EquusStorm]

I mean to be fair 2014 was the least prolific season since 1997 and this is a season on a record pace but it's certainly a fascinating comparison being the same name list lol. Pretty mind boggling

[jasons2k]

Incredible. Two tropical cyclones spawned from tropical waves in one day. In mid-July. Roughly 1 month before peak season hits.

Two months...

[northjaxpro]

Incredible. Two tropical cyclones spawned from tropical waves in one day. In mid-July. Roughly 1 month before peak season hits.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Actually we are still just inside of two months from the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane season averages around September 10 each year. So we are still 7 weeks from that now.. Amazing! We will be working already on the "I" storm by the time we reach the end of this upcoming weekend.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Pretty nice couple of hot towers and storms rotating over and around the center this morning.
We'll see if TD8 manages to maintain this convection or if it all decays after sunrise.

[GCANE]

Convection is pretty much right on top of the CoC.
CIMSS shows its stacked thru 500mb.
The ring of UL vorts is in place to ideally vent this.
Looks like it'll tap into the EPAC moisture in about one day.

[GCANE]

Getting a nice infeed from two high CAPE areas.
One in the BoC, the other from its north.

[GCANE]

The ULL in the BoC is venting this really well on its NW side.