ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Tiny storm like Beryl

[EquusStorm]

Welp... essentially, here's your Iris analog

[xironman]

Tiny storm like Beryl

Or more recently Marco.

[shiny-pebble]

While I do think this has a good shot at H status I don't think Iris is the best analog for intensity. Iris was a hurricane when it was in this location.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[EquusStorm]

Definitely not as intense as Iris, but similar size, forward motion, and track. Probably will be a hurricane soon though.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon doing some circles in the eye.. briefly crossed the north quad with a 58kt FL.

heading to east quad now ..

[aspen]

Welp... essentially, here's your Iris analog

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/750340898310848603/750392835949330512/GOES16102020245FogLvs.jpg https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/750340898310848603/750392836146462751/1280px-Iris_2001-10-08_1645Z.jpg


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Iris_2001_track.png/1280px-Iris_2001_track.png

I was thinking Nana could be like Iris. Both are exceptionally tiny and compact systems taking a similar path, but the main difference is that Iris was already a hurricane in the middle of the Caribbean before blowing up into a Cat 4.

[Argcane]

Well, that escalated quickly. Looks like it is developing an eye

[Highteeld]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If this storm already has an eye as reported by the Recon VDM, then this may be a much more serious threat than we anticipated.

[tropicwatch]

Hope the high in the gulf holds steady the next two days.

[ColdMiser123]

58 KT FL wind at around 1500 meters supports 48 KT at the surface, definitely closer to being a 50 KT storm than a 45 KT storm at this point.

[aspen]

Nice OHC in its path.

[EquusStorm]

Similar track as Francelia 69, Fifi 74, Greta 78, and of course Iris. Interestingly, all of those storms survived into the East Pacific as at least remnants; probably only Francelia completely lost its identity but still contributed to the development of a hurricane there. We'll see if it gets strong enough to survive the passage; some rough terrain in there.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Special advisory now explicitly calling for a hurricane landfall.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

[Aric Dunn]

From the amount of unflagged SFMR in multiple quads of 53 to 56 kts. and FL of 58+

55kts is reasonable.

[aspen]

If Nana rapidly intensifies into a midget major like Iris, this will be one of the biggest model forecast busts in years. Not even the CMC or ICON, which have done better sniffing out genesis this year, have shown anything significant in the near term.

[TallyTracker]

The CMC did a great job catching this one earlier than most models! ICON model also had a solid storm around this location as well several days ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

If Nana rapidly intensifies into a midget major like Iris, this will be one of the biggest model forecast busts in years. Not even the CMC or ICON, which have done better sniffing out genesis this year, have shown anything significant in the near term.

Yep, I think the closest we got was the icon showing a cat2 approaching Jamaica when this was like a week out

[EquusStorm]

And Nana developing into a probable hurricane without even SHORT term global model support is yet another reason why we don't cancel the rest of the season based on those same models' LONG term relative quiescence.