ATL: DELTA - Models

[Cataegis96]

00z UKMET with a significant shift west into Vermilion Bay/Marsh Island/New Iberia.

https://i.imgur.com/av324CD.png

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 79.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 0 16.9N 79.7W 996 41
1200UTC 06.10.2020 12 18.3N 82.0W 989 47
0000UTC 07.10.2020 24 19.7N 84.7W 982 49
1200UTC 07.10.2020 36 21.4N 87.1W 977 53
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.0N 90.2W 974 56
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.6N 91.9W 972 57
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 24.8N 92.8W 964 65
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 26.1N 93.0W 951 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 28.3N 92.2W 949 77
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 30.3N 91.7W 976 44
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 32.2N 90.5W 990 28
1200UTC 11.10.2020 132 34.1N 88.5W 996 26
0000UTC 12.10.2020 144 37.5N 86.0W 996 19

Much stronger, too.

[Steve]

UK gets it to 93W in the 12 hour plot list. I didn't think it would get that far. I didn't look at the 00z GFS numericals, but it looked close to 93 on that too. Odd. One of the local weather guys (Chris Franklin) said he felt like if there were any changes to the cone and track, it would be toward the western side. It was a teaser for later in the news broadcast, and I wasn't biting. Stronger ridging and push from the Atlantic perhaps. UK is better for us here, as it doesn't cross back across 90 until the center is pretty far north of Lake Pontchartrain. That's obviously better for New Orleans than a track farther east.

[Steve]

Model trends for 00z (and somewhat 18z) are farther west in the Gulf taking it longer to landfall because it gets farther west. Canadian looks to hit around Ameila/Morgan City and come across Baton Rouge and those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=96

[MississippiWx]

00z HMON has this baby up to 167kts at 850mb and 931mb tomorrow night. Slightly east of previous run.

[Steve]

HMON possibly out of its skull in bringing a 931mb system up at 30 hours. Adjusted for actual time, that's roughly 25 hours and 18 minutes from now. 46mb in a day isn't unheard of, but I'd usually bet big against it. Western Caribbean? Probably not making the bet.

[Steve]

HWRF 18 hours

[Steve]

Vicious shot for Riviera Maya, Cancun and the whole resort area down the coast says the HMON. 929mb.

[Keldeo1997]

HMON has a CAT 5 approaching. Makes landfall at 929MB

[Steve]

HMON hits the State of Quintana Roo and moves across the northern portion of the Yucatan in the 930's. Not to be outdone by the HMON, HWRF is in the mid 930's and working it's way NW.

[MississippiWx]

Both the HWRF and HMON have a Cat 5 hitting the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan in roughly 24-30 hours.

[Steve]

HWRF 36H





BEWARE if the HWRF is right

[Keldeo1997]

[edu2703]

That would be catastrophic for Cancun

[Steve]

I need to go to bed, but the hurricane models are the trainwreck I can't look away from. Looks like HWRF comes off the Yucatan in the 940's. Hopefully that's the peak and it won't want to drop it too much in the WC Gulf.

[Steve]

Formidable at 69h on HMON, but grateful for a weakening trend.

[Steve]

HMON 78h

[shah83]

Remember, when Wilma hit that area, the touristy areas of Cozumel/Playa del Carmen was on the channel side--there was protection from most of the island of Cozumel. Still, like 500 million dollars in damage 2005$.

Dynamic models are forecasting a very retired storm. This would be Hurricane Dean hitting a major population center!

[Steve]

HMON 84h moving east of N.

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF at hour 69 (nice) is deepening again

[Steve]

HMON - Cocodrie at 90 hours @ 962mb (Cat 2 probably). Friday @ 1pm