ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

We have Major Hurricane Epsilon folks!

Proof?

[aspen]

We have Major Hurricane Epsilon folks!

Proof?

18z best track updated to 100 kt and 955 mbar.

[storminabox]

Looks like Olga 2001 on steroids. WV is amazing

https://i.imgur.com/S8ytdUk.png

https://i.imgur.com/YR0QrW9.png

It’s a hurricane embedded within an upper level low, which is creating a perfect protective pouch.

[EquusStorm]

Whether or not the NHC follows through at 5, we'll see; don't see why they wouldn't though.

[gfsperpendicular]

Stadium effect!

[Ryxn]

I think Category 4 with 130mph winds is quite possible. If only Category 5 was possible with it missing Bermuda. Would be nice to have a monster fish storm.

......However it is forecast to deepen to Category 5 equivalent pressures after it goes post-tropical.

[aspen]

Are we getting a second recon flight later today? If so, it’s possible Epsilon could be approaching Cat 4 status. Its excellent upper-level setup is helping it approach the maximum possible intensity for this region.

[EquusStorm]

I think we're getting another flight late this evening. Hope it arrives at the right time to catch peak.

[CrazyC83]

Are we getting a second recon flight later today? If so, it’s possible Epsilon could be approaching Cat 4 status. Its excellent upper-level setup is helping it approach the maximum possible intensity for this region.

Another flight is departing now, but it has a long while to go before it arrives. Probably gets to Epsilon in about 3 1/2 hours.

[Do_For_Love]

Stadium effect!

Wow, that's a really good image of a stadium effect!

Can Epsilon really get to a Cat 4? I thought I read that the maximum possible was a Cat 3 with the 26 degree water temp. It looks like a total beast though so maybe that was wrong.

[Kazmit]

Eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 106 kt.

Presumably a gust, but damn.

You need to watch youself a little bit. Any form of swearing is not allowed here on Storm2K

Damn is not really a swear word. The rule is more in terms of f-bombs.

[Kazmit]

[Ryxn]

https://i.imgur.com/rWI5APk.png

One of the most stunning storms. Definitely a looker.

[aspen]

Are we getting a second recon flight later today? If so, it’s possible Epsilon could be approaching Cat 4 status. Its excellent upper-level setup is helping it approach the maximum possible intensity for this region.

Another flight is departing now, but it has a long while to go before it arrives. Probably gets to Epsilon in about 3 1/2 hours.

That should be plenty of time for significant intensification between the last pass and the new flight’s first one, assuming this phase continues.

[ClarCari]

Stadium effect!

Wow, that's a really good image of a stadium effect!

Can Epsilon really get to a Cat 4? I thought I read that the maximum possible was a Cat 3 with the 26 degree water temp. It looks like a total beast though so maybe that was wrong.

I suppose Theoretically a Cat. 5 is even possible in 26 degrees (not saying in this instance with Epsilon), it would just be sooo slow to occur that atmospheric instability would not be able to produce enough thunderstorms and convection to easily get it to that point before an EWRC takes place and chokes it or other things like dry air and shear stop it from ever getting close to that point. Really warm waters tend to produce convection alot faster, stronger, and more consistently as we saw in Delta and with Wilma.

If nothing disrupts Epsilon for the next several hours, it’s totally possible for it to reach Cat.4!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, probably the biggest overachiever of the year. Had a feeling this was way stronger than the Category 1 the NHC was analyzing earlier. Satellite intensities were really off.

18z ATCF up to 100 knots. 4th major hurricane of the year.

Hurricane EPSILON
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 21, 2020:

Location: 29.4°N 59.7°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 300 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 5 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[JRD]

Tracking Epsilon's extratropical transition will be a challenge. It's likely to keep that hybrid look throughout its tropical existence, making it harder to see which changes will be due to extratropical transition. I think that, without the use of phase diagrams, the formation of a cold front would be the first giveaway of becoming extratropical, as the dry slot has been in Epsilon since the beginning, when it was still 94L.

[EquusStorm]

Eyewall is a little thin in NW quad on IR but the eye itself is about as classic as you'll see, with the swirls, motion, and mesovorts usually reserved for cat 4+ storms. Goregous stadium too. Definitely only behind Laura in looks this year imo. I don't think Teddy got quite this clear and stunning.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/rWI5APk.png

Wow that is insane. If I saw that picture without knowing what storm it was, I would say it would be strong Cat 4...

[Syx6sic]

AF308 Mission #2 into EPSILON
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 19:42 UTC Oct 21, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 32.35°N 78.28°W
Bearing: 108° at 327 kt
Altitude: 7695 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 26 kt at 158°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A