WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

22W GONI 201030 0000 16.3N 132.7E WPAC 130 934

0z intensity revised up 5 knots. Curious to see what 06z will bring. I think it's almost certinaly going to be C5 but by how much.

Yeah I would think them revising that would mean Cat 5 at 6z. Not gonna lie I thought that was a current update and I was about to scream until I saw the 0z lol

[euro6208]

+155 knots.

Looks eerily similiar to Paka when it peaked at 160 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

I just noticed this but for some reason the newest JTWC advisory calls for a 135kt peak instead of 140kt. Yet this is likely already 140 kts. #Bust

[Ed_2001]

Not my personal tweet but wow
 https://twitter.com/AlexLubbers2/status/1322044361337524225

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF has this peaking at 924mb in 9hrs, but keeps it in the 920's until hour 36

[ManilaTC]

00z GFS has Goni with a direct hit on the Metro Manila area.

[mrbagyo]

What a gorgeous pass.

[mrbagyo]

What a gorgeous pass.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/20201030.0410.gpm.89hbt.22W.GONI.125kts.939mb.16.3N.132.7E.025pc.jpg

Here's the real deal.

[euro6208]

Raw up to 7.5

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 932.0mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.5

[Weatherboi1023]

This reminds me a lot of STY Nalgae in 2011. It was also a very compact storm, plus its track also had that pronounced SW dip due to uber strong STR in East Asia. No wonder 2011 and 2020 are both La Nina years.

Right. Typhoon Nalgae/Quiel from 2011. Took a southwest to WSW path also due to HPA in mainland China

Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

[ejeraldmc]

00z GFS has Goni with a direct hit on the Metro Manila area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020103000/gfs_mslp_uv850_22W_10.png

Eerily, 25 years ago (November 2, 1995), Typhoon Angela slammed into Luzon.

[ElectricStorm]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive


What an eye

[ejeraldmc]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

[Hayabusa]

TPPN13 PGTW 300628

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 30/0600Z

C. 16.35N

D. 131.59E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[ElectricStorm]

TPPN13 PGTW 300628

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 30/0600Z

C. 16.35N

D. 131.59E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

Whoa!

[Weatherboi1023]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

Agree, it's been a long while since Manila experienced a direct hit/strike from a significant typhoon..

1. GLENDA (KOMPASU) 2014
2. BASYANG (CONSON) 2010
3. FRANK (FENGSHEN) 2008
4. MILENYO (XANGSANE) 2006
5. ROSING (ANGELA) 1995

Do we have other typhoons in mind?



Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

[ejeraldmc]

 https://twitter.com/AlexLubbers2/status/1322060785590304770

[Hayabusa]

As strong as Haishen's peak in winds

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°25' (16.4°)
E131°35' (131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

Agree, it's been a long while since Manila experienced a direct hit/strike from a significant typhoon..

1. GLENDA (KOMPASU) 2014
2. BASYANG (CONSON) 2010
3. FRANK (FENGSHEN) 2008
4. MILENYO (XANGSANE) 2006
5. ROSING (ANGELA) 1995

Do we have other typhoons in mind?



Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

The greatest Manila typhoon in terms of wind is still Typhoon Patsy from the 1970 La Nina -

RPLL recorded wind gust reaching 200kph before the anemometer conked out.

[Ed_2001]

WP, 22, 2020103006, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1316E, 150, 911, ST,

Preliminarily the strongest storm of 2020, beating out Amphan and Harold.