ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

No evacuations for Florida at this time...hopefully this storm will not surprise us with intensity because there is not much time left in case it becomes necessary.

Ocracoke Island, NC is under a mandatory evacuation, since the island is only reachable by ferry, they need plenty of time to get everyone out.

[aspen]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

https://i.imgur.com/lnAPkPr.gif

Might take only one or two more hot towers to help close it off. If shear is lower tonight and if Isaias takes full advantage of diurnal max, perhaps we could be a brief period of strengthening before shear and/or land interaction keep a lid on intensity.

[Hd444]

The Cdo is Charley level tiny. Globals won't resolve it.

[NDG]

No evacuations for Florida at this time...hopefully this storm will not surprise us with intensity because there is not much time left in case it becomes necessary.

Ocracoke Island, NC is under a mandatory evacuation, since the island is only reachable by ferry, they need plenty of time to get everyone out.

What I miss about Rick Scott, he was good with handling potential impacts by a hurricane, he would had ordered evacuations for the barrier Islands of the Treasure Coast by now.

[BYG Jacob]

Outflow looks good in all quadrants, not sure about shear right now.

[eastcoastFL]

No evacuations for Florida at this time...hopefully this storm will not surprise us with intensity because there is not much time left in case it becomes necessary.

Ocracoke Island, NC is under a mandatory evacuation, since the island is only reachable by ferry, they need plenty of time to get everyone out.

What I miss about Rick Scott, he was good with handling potential impacts by a hurricane, he would had ordered evacuations for the barrier Islands of the Treasure Coast by now.

He did do a very good job at handling hurricane preps and I felt his concern was genuine.

[cjrciadt]

UKMET up and over my head this run

[AutoPenalti]

Welp, so much for those east shifts that many on here were forecasting. Time to start putting up the shutters.

[KWT]

Clearly can see on the visible imagery the western half of the LLC popping out of the convection again as it's been prone to doing at times

Radar isn't going to tell the story at the surface, your looking at the MLC feature on radar rather than the surface low.

Radar probably won't, but recon would, and the latest recon pass suggests that the center is squarely in the middle of the central convection.

1.1 MB. Source: Google Earth, using data from TropicalAtlantic.com and SSEC RealEarth
https://i.imgur.com/rsr0rja.png

Ok that is rather obvious.

Still can clearly see the western part of the circulation on the visible loops, even though the center is under that hot tower based on radar.

Given that is the case, yes clearly strengthening will be happening now.

[Weatherboy1]

Wonder if we aren’t going to see an eye clearing out soon. Hmmm

[Kat5]

Per the WV loop, looks like interaction between the ridge and trough has begun.

[KWT]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

https://i.imgur.com/lnAPkPr.gif

Im going with halfway, little less ...i wonder if the radar based on its location doesnt pickup the full extent of the eye

Depends on where the radar is based.

If it's Cuba based, then it indicates clear strengthening.

If it's Bahamas based, then yes it may just be the system moving closer to range and thus more of the core being picked up.

However based on recon showing where the true center is id guess it's strengthing.

The big caveat is that's a small CDO, small enough that the western portion of the LLC has been peaking out at times. So it's probably very suspectible to any increases of shear.

Equally, it's small size in terms of CDO probably would allow a quick ramp up once the inner core completes.

[StormStalker]

Forgive the uneducated observation, but I thought the system moving over the southern US was supposed to erode the ridge steering Isaias, and the models were based on that setup. Ridge erodes, pulling the storm poleward, up the east coast?

I am in the south, and our local mets are now talking about the models being off, farmers not getting the rain as expected, etc. This makes me think the ridge will hold up longer than expected and the track models will continue to adjust west.

Will be interesting to see what he does and how wrong I probably am

[Hd444]

Welp, so much for those east shifts that many on here were forecasting. Time to start putting up the shutters.

Still possible if its stronger .

[NDG]

014
URNT12 KNHC 311735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092020
A. 31/16:45:10Z
B. 22.03 deg N 074.96 deg W
C. 700 mb 3037 m
D. 993 mb
E. 125 deg 19 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 52 kt
I. 107 deg 17 nm 16:30:00Z
J. 175 deg 51 kt
K. 099 deg 30 nm 16:26:00Z
L. 61 kt
M. 351 deg 11 nm 16:50:30Z
N. 090 deg 61 kt
O. 355 deg 16 nm 16:51:30Z
P. 6 C / 3051 m
Q. 15 C / 3047 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF304 0709A ISAIAS OB 29
MAX FL WIND 72 KT 047 / 44 NM 13:55:00Z

[Nimbus]

I checked the Most Recent Dropsonde Sounding page and there isn't much mid level shear in the current batch of samplings. 6.9 WV is showing the 200 mb high cirrus expanding with some dry air impingement on the western side.
Not sure how the trough related shear forecast is going to evolve yet with such a small core.

[Blown Away]

My 2pm guess:
22.1N/75.1W 991mb.

[SFLcane]

Welp, so much for those east shifts that many on here were forecasting. Time to start putting up the shutters.

I ran into huge lines in Walmart water will be gone later today. I am all ready to go though

[BYG Jacob]

I love how small he is now, especially compared to when he was a disturbance.

[jaxfladude]

Yikes hopefully this is not the possible preview of the troubles to come as we start to enter the real meat of the hurricane season......Scary to think that the areas of the Eastern Seaboard northward from NC to NE may be in for something very uncomfortable and unusual...wait and see time
Florida is still in play for something how much.....?
The Bahamas DO NOT NEED EVEN NEED THIS NO MATTER WHAT....Prayers to all impacted by this system.....