ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 19.6°N 81.8°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

There it is, I agree with the coordinates, looks about right even though the recon hasn't gotter yet.

[Iceresistance]

NHC said in their discussion that there is a chance for Subtropical Storm Eta within the next few days depending on the dry air & how will Eta reacts to it.

[sponger]

If half of these models verify, there will be TS warnings for most of the SE US before this is over. Now that we have a center to track and NOAA is regularly sampling the surrounding environment, this afternoon's model runs will be much more accurate than the guesses so far.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1325083213434327040

[Aric Dunn]

Well on its way to becoming a hurricane. satelite and radar showing the development of some eyewall structure. Good momentum shift to the convection.. highly likely we have a hurricane before cuba.

[aspen]

Welcome back TS Eta. Now that it’s stronger than a depression, it’ll be back to generating ACE to fully push 2020 above the hyperactive threshold.

[NDG]

Good decision to extend TS watches to east central FL, the pressure gradient between the 1030mb high to the north and Eta to the south, winds will be gusting to TS force winds especially if a squall line moves well north like the GFS has been showing.
Waves model shows waves as high as 20 feet just offshore of east central FL beaches. The rip currents are going to be insane.

[Blown Away]

NHC said in their discussion that there is a chance for Subtropical Storm Eta within the next few days depending on the dry air & how will Eta reacts to it.

I think that will occur after the potential direct impacts to SFL. It’s a collision course that will happen over the peninsula IMO.

[SFLcane]

Well on its way to becoming a hurricane. satelite and radar showing the development of some eyewall structure. Good momentum shift to the convection.. highly likely we have a hurricane before cuba.

https://i.ibb.co/6JrJhkN/ezgif-com-resize-13.gif

Yikes!

[AutoPenalti]

It’s hauling ass right now. Don’t think it can strengthen until it slows down.

[boca]

Well on its way to becoming a hurricane. satelite and radar showing the development of some eyewall structure. Good momentum shift to the convection.. highly likely we have a hurricane before cuba.

https://i.ibb.co/6JrJhkN/ezgif-com-resize-13.gif

Aric do you agree with the track across South Florida and do you think it will be a hurricane once it up in this area .

[Iceresistance]

Recon up to 40 knots now (45 mph)

[NDG]

Much stronger than estimated.

URNT15 KNHC 071511
AF309 1029A ETA HDOB 28 20201107
150200 1913N 08141W 9247 00735 0062 +196 //// 233039 040 034 002 01
150230 1915N 08141W 9266 00718 0068 +198 //// 238037 040 037 005 05
150300 1916N 08141W 9246 00733 //// +197 //// 248038 038 034 002 01
150330 1918N 08141W 9250 00729 0057 +204 //// 247038 039 036 001 01
150400 1920N 08141W 9253 00727 0061 +199 //// 245033 038 032 005 05
150430 1921N 08141W 9240 00736 0064 +205 //// 273012 027 029 005 01
150500 1923N 08141W 9277 00701 0058 +207 +207 328022 028 036 025 03
150530 1924N 08141W 9218 00757 0058 +206 +206 355038 039 025 014 00
150600 1925N 08142W 9276 00683 0045 +210 +210 353036 040 040 009 00
150630 1927N 08142W 9234 00722 0038 +215 //// 350026 034 047 003 04
150700 1928N 08142W 9249 00719 //// +203 //// 009045 049 047 003 05
150730 1929N 08142W 9244 00716 //// +203 //// 016050 052 051 000 05
150800 1930N 08142W 9231 00726 0019 +218 +216 024057 060 055 001 01
150830 1932N 08142W 9229 00729 0039 +198 //// 037053 056 053 003 01
150900 1933N 08142W 9251 00722 0054 +205 //// 044053 056 052 005 05
150930 1934N 08142W 9244 00728 0057 +197 //// 049058 059 047 006 01
151000 1935N 08142W 9241 00733 //// +183 //// 051057 059 048 003 01
151030 1937N 08142W 9245 00740 0071 +193 //// 047055 057 048 006 01
151100 1938N 08143W 9253 00739 0080 +200 //// 047056 057 049 007 01
151130 1939N 08143W 9254 00745 0087 +201 +201 049055 056 049 008 00

[Aric Dunn]

Well on its way to becoming a hurricane. satelite and radar showing the development of some eyewall structure. Good momentum shift to the convection.. highly likely we have a hurricane before cuba.

https://i.ibb.co/6JrJhkN/ezgif-com-resize-13.gif

Aric do you agree with the track across South Florida and do you think it will be a hurricane once it up in this area .

Both scenarios are quite possible.

the track is tricky because of the potential interaction with the mid level feature in the gulf.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR

55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph)


Flight level

60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)

[chaser1]

ETA is finally trucking along. Timing will certainly be crucial regarding the emergence of the storm off the Cuban coast and the storm slowing down just enough to become increasing vertically aligned. Attaining hurricane strength is still on the table but it'll be a race against the dryer air to be entrained into it's core

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/ajky345/status/1325094118519943173

[toad strangler]

998 mb

[aspen]

Looks like there is indeed a center reformation near the Cayman Islands, and Eta is probably a 55 kt TS now. I guess Aric is right that this could be on its way to becoming a hurricane again.

[SFLcane]

That does not make sense Broward not under warning but northern Bahamas are????

This will be updated