ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cjrciadt]

Welp, so much for those east shifts that many on here were forecasting. Time to start putting up the shutters.

I ran into huge lines in Walmart water will be gone later today. I am all ready to go though

Yup madhouse here in Kissinmee.

[KWT]

I checked the Most Recent Dropsonde Sounding page and there isn't much mid level shear in the current batch of samplings. 6.9 WV is showing the 200 mb high cirrus expanding with some dry air impingement on the western side.
Not sure how the trough related shear forecast is going to evolve yet with such a small core.

Going to be a tough forecast, as previously stated it's going to be very suspectible to even a short lived blast of shear, but shear forecasts can be notriously poor at times.

[Sanibel]

Latest visible shows what you don't want to see structure and southern inflow-wise...

[cjrciadt]

I love how small he is now, especially compared to when he was a disturbance.

My worst experience with a cane was a small one racing N( Charley)

[HurricaneFrances04]

Latest visible shows what you don't want to see structure and southern inflow-wise...

Don't want to see from the perspective of the storm or someone in the path of the storm?

[shiny-pebble]

I'm very much an amateur so take my observation with a grain of salt and feel free to correct me. Is a much smaller eye forming right now?? There looked to be a bigger eye forming before but now it looks like it's closing off a much smaller eye on radar

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[Blown Away]

Latest visible shows what you don't want to see structure and southern inflow-wise...

CDO expanding westward now.

[CaribJam]

Isaias seems to be EXPANDING over the last few hours, as well as looking increasingly OMINOUS.

If you are in the general path (whether or not in the current cone) it is better to be PREPARED than sorry that you didn't.

The tropics and its cyclones can be very unpredictable.

Stay safe everyone.

[Aric Dunn]

[tiger_deF]

Hispaniola clearly slowed Isaias down, and models in general have been trending slower recently for most future points

[northjaxpro]

Latest visible shows what you don't want to see structure and southern inflow-wise...

https://i.imgur.com/Hkab9uK.gif
CDO expanding westward now.

Yes it is.

[nativefloridian]

My 2pm guess:
22.1N/75.1W 991mb.

WOW....so close. 22.2N/75.2W as per 2pm update.

[KWT]

https://i.ibb.co/NCvbyXW/LABELS-19700101-000000-9.gif

That shows the light shear from the west quite well, you can see the boundary is pretty close to N-S along that western boundary of colder convection.

Probably not too problematic as the inner core is this far unaffected but worth watching, with a small core it's liable to increases in shear at any point.

[flamingosun]

Welp, so much for those east shifts that many on here were forecasting. Time to start putting up the shutters.

I ran into huge lines in Walmart water will be gone later today. I am all ready to go though

I have a WalMart delivery order en route . . . had halfway expected the bottled water to be an out of stock item, but it wasn't, so it's coming!

[cp79]

Anyone else see a possible Hurricane Donna track setting up here?

[ronjon]

Latest visible shows what you don't want to see structure and southern inflow-wise...

https://i.imgur.com/Hkab9uK.gif
CDO expanding westward now.

Yes it is.

Yeah its pulling away from the high mtns of Hispanola and getting better inflow from the south. Also the cirrus expansion shows an upper level anticyclone over top of the storm. Think steady strengthening now the next 24 hrs or so.

[TTARider]

Donna? Maybe... Starting to feel like Irma did for sure.

[Bimms]

I'm thinking with the 5PM update we are going to see the track adjusted to the west some more and Hurricane Watches are going to go up for Metro Broward...just a hunch.

[StPeteMike]

I’m hoping to see the shear in the next day or so to pick up. My worry is that we have been saying “shear will keep it weak” and “shear will prevent major strengthening” since the early stages and, though there has been some shear, it has been nowhere near where models were forecasting.

Just cross your fingers the shear actually shows up on Saturday and Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/Hkab9uK.gif
CDO expanding westward now.

Yes it is.

Yeah its pulling away from the high mtns of Hispanola and getting better inflow from the south. Also the cirrus expansion shows an upper level anticyclone over top of the storm. Think steady strengthening now the next 24 hrs or so.

Yes . I actually think Isaias is pumpng the ridge that has been in place over him all week.

Thrre is no tellinh how strong Isaias coild get He is created a very nice environment of his own right now.

It is remarkable what we are seeing with this cyclone right now!!