ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

It's legit. This could REALLY strengthen more as it comes in.

As slow as it's moving something like this is certainly possible. But hopefully it won't happen. But dang, raw T 6.0...

[CrazyC83]

Uhh... This can't be right
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2020 Time : 022016 UTC
Lat : 29:43:11 N Lon : 87:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.0

It's legit. This could REALLY strengthen more as it comes in.

What do you think is the ceiling?

The Raw T# is probably the ceiling, but it would need to keep ramping up at this rate for 12 hours. These are the kind of storms that can surprise us as the winds can catch up. Not saying it WILL happen, but it could.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's legit. This could REALLY strengthen more as it comes in.

What do you think is the ceiling?

The Raw T# is probably the ceiling, but it would need to keep ramping up at this rate for 12 hours. These are the kind of storms that can surprise us as the winds can catch up. Not saying it WILL happen, but it could.

If it can keep that southern eyewall closed, it could be the difference between 90-100mph and 110-115mph

[Bamagirl2408]

NHC 10pm CST has it ashore at 87.5w for landfall....that's the AL/FL border.

Ivan 2.0 same date, same exact landfall. Unbelievable.

[wx98]

Center is now 40 miles SSW of Gulf Shores. Gotten roughly 5 miles closer in about two and a half hours. Looks like NHC speed and direction is on point.

[FLpanhandle91]

Sally's 50kt wind field is expanding.

[StAuggy]

NHC 10pm CST has it ashore at 87.5w for landfall....that's the AL/FL border.

Ivan 2.0 same date, same exact landfall. Unbelievable.

With the potential for the post landfall Atlantic loop around too!

[NDG]

She's going for Cat 2 for sure.

URNT15 KNHC 160319
AF305 1219A SALLY HDOB 36 20200916
031030 2912N 08719W 6965 03087 9956 +105 +093 220072 073 054 003 00
031100 2913N 08720W 6969 03077 9953 +103 +091 219073 073 056 003 00
031130 2914N 08722W 6969 03072 //// +099 //// 217074 074 058 004 01
031200 2916N 08723W 6964 03072 9943 +104 //// 214074 075 060 004 01
031230 2917N 08725W 6969 03061 9932 +106 //// 216075 077 061 003 01
031300 2918N 08726W 6967 03054 9937 +107 //// 217078 078 062 006 01
031330 2919N 08727W 6963 03052 9933 +108 +108 220078 079 062 006 00
031400 2921N 08729W 6963 03043 9898 +107 //// 220080 080 066 003 01
031430 2922N 08730W 6976 03016 9875 +110 +104 221083 084 068 002 01
031500 2923N 08731W 6959 03027 9859 +121 +103 224086 087 069 003 00
031530 2924N 08733W 6965 03007 9849 +119 +112 230089 092 073 002 01
031600 2925N 08734W 6965 02992 //// +120 //// 229088 093 073 002 01
031630 2926N 08735W 6967 02981 //// +125 //// 225078 083 074 004 01
031700 2928N 08737W 6971 02964 9794 +128 +127 229062 072 073 004 01
031730 2929N 08738W 6963 02966 9790 +128 +115 232055 059 072 003 00
031800 2930N 08739W 6970 02951 9792 +122 //// 232050 053 066 005 01
031830 2931N 08741W 6969 02942 9766 +133 +112 234046 049 056 005 00
031900 2933N 08742W 6963 02941 9758 +131 +122 234046 047 047 003 00
031930 2934N 08743W 6967 02927 9751 +131 +124 232040 047 045 001 00
032000 2935N 08744W 6967 02923 9736 +137 +119 234032 036 042 001 00
$$

[FLpanhandle91]

031530 2924N 08733W 6965 03007 9849 +119 +112 230089 092 073 002 01
031600 2925N 08734W 6965 02992 //// +120 //// 229088 093 073 002 01
031630 2926N 08735W 6967 02981 //// +125 //// 225078 083 074 004 01
031700 2928N 08737W 6971 02964 9794 +128 +127 229062 072 073 004 01

Wow.

[jaxfladude]

??? what is wow?

[Stormgodess]

Thought this was interesting

 https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1306070614042705924

[tiger_deF]

What Sally ends up doing will really be crucial in determining the fate of Teddy, whether he menaces Atlantic Canada/Eastern NE or recurves harmlessly out to sea. ICON and the ECMFW's take on the system has Sally redeveloping slightly into a closed low and interacts with the trough to tilt it just the right way to capture Teddy and pull it to the west, whereas most model guidance has Sally either being fully absorbed by the trough or fully regenerating, which in both cases help Teddy find his escape route North

[Dean4Storms]

Almost 95kts Flight level. Wow.

[us89]

Nearly 95 kt FL winds, 75 kt SFMR ... in the southeast quadrant!

NW quadrant is almost certainly stronger.

[Craters]

Oh, man. I really, really hope that this doesn't come close to Harvey's rainfall totals. Nobody should have to go through that...

[saila]

NHC 10pm CST has it ashore at 87.5w for landfall....that's the AL/FL border.

Ivan 2.0 same date, same exact landfall. Unbelievable.

Flashbacks of sitting in the dark during Ivan and smelling pine from the tree that fell on the back of my house. Sally has so far knocked down a section of fence and dislodged my solar panels. Can hear them flopping around on the roof. At least the power is still on. September 16th jinx

[Ivanhater]

Satellite is clearing an eye. I thought this would be a weaking storm this morning. Could this slide east of Pensacola?

[CrazyC83]

Almost 95kts Flight level. Wow.

93 kt FL translates to 84 kt at the surface using standard ratios. The SFMR is going to be suspect in such shallow water.

[La Sirena]

NHC 10pm CST has it ashore at 87.5w for landfall....that's the AL/FL border.

Ivan 2.0 same date, same exact landfall. Unbelievable.

Flashbacks of sitting in the dark during Ivan and smelling pine from the tree that fell on the back of my house. Sally has so far knocked down a section of fence and dislodged my solar panels. Can hear them flopping around on the roof. At least the power is still on. September 16th jinx

It’s certainly no bueno. I don’t miss that trying to figure what’s gone down in the middle of a storm. Hope you have a safe night.

[La Sirena]

Satellite is clearing an eye. I thought this would be a weaking storm this morning. Could this slide east of Pensacola?

I hope not as I’m not sure they’re prepared nor expecting this outcome.