ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

I am here in Virginia Beach Virginia keeping my eyes on this storm now going to be a stressful next few days for sure here

Same here. This has all the markings of an Obx hit. Plus, it's an 'I' storm, and we never have too much luck with those.

[abk_0710]

Even with the west shifts, is there any chance of this storm going either further west and landing in the Gulf?

[EquusStorm]

Well this is certainly escalating

[Vdogg]

Even with the west shifts, is there any chance of this storm going either further west and landing in the Gulf?

There's always a chance, but at this point it's doubtful it makes it that far west.

[Syx6sic]

I am here in Virginia Beach Virginia keeping my eyes on this storm now going to be a stressful next few days for sure here

Same here. This has all the markings of an Obx hit. Plus, it's an 'I' storm, and we never have too much luck with those.

Yea I know

[CronkPSU]

Even with the west shifts, is there any chance of this storm going either further west and landing in the Gulf?

there was always a chance BUT those chances have increased the past 12 hours, still very unlikely but I think all of us down here remember Irma

[Mouton]

Looking at the trough, it does not look it will get anywhere near close enough before Isaias reaches shore around PBC or perhaps a tad south of it. Steering currents seem to be screaming west right now all the way to almost St Augustine too. NHC says moving 305 deg, looks a tad more close to 290 to me. There is still shear and some dry air to contend to which should lid it out under cat 3, hopefully. My sense is the recent Euro is pretty close to the final path which looks to have Orlando in its grasp. Don't think it makes the gulf coast. Hope they get the word in Mayport if there are ships inside.

Off to getting shutters in position for putting up on Sat as storm passing to our immediate west it looks like on Sunday evening. Going to ride this one out given the CCP virus and not wishing to pull the pin on that potential problem by finding some temp housing.

[Vdogg]

I'm not quite sold on the west shifts just yet. Those models are basing it off of a weaker storm (or rather, a storm that stays weak) the storm is currently strengthening. The stronger it gets the more likely it is for that North turn to occur, and the models may start swinging back the other direction later today.

[GCANE]

Air over eastern Cuba has destabilized to about 3000 CAPE.
Cumulus is building and will fire off convection in a few hours.
Convective debris should rapidly be entrained into the core at the mid-levels.
Current CAPE in the core is 2500.
This combination, and given the fact that core pressure continues to drop, should provide a big boost of infeed through a good part of the troposphere and allow chances to remain high for intensification.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm going to go ahead and place my landfall bet. I'm going with Jupiter Inlet. It's post time folks. Get your bets in now.

[BYG Jacob]

I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going to go ahead and place my landfall bet. I'm going with Jupiter Inlet. It's post time folks. Get your bets in now.

Palm Beach give or take 20 miles north or south.

[caneseddy]

I'm going to go ahead and place my landfall bet. I'm going with Jupiter Inlet. It's post time folks. Get your bets in now.

I say between Pompano Beach and Boca Raton.

[lando]

I'm not quite sold on the west shifts just yet. Those models are basing it off of a weaker storm (or rather, a storm that stays weak) the storm is currently strengthening. The stronger it gets the more likely it is for that North turn to occur, and the modes may start swinging back the other direction later today.

Yes and no. Every single model and ensemble is significantly further west than the last 2 days. Yes your right most of Them are weak, but the storm is not currently vertically stacked and is still fighting a thin layer of dry air and moderate sheer. The reasoning for the continued westward moveMent is a stronger ridge, weaker troph which is usually the case. Even if he strengthens, he won’t run through the ridge

[CourierPR]

I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.

Every dog in the neighborhood has to take a shot at the fire hydrant.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the trough, it does not look it will get anywhere near close enough before Isaias reaches shore around PBC or perhaps a tad south of it. Steering currents seem to be screaming west right now all the way to almost St Augustine too. NHC says moving 305 deg, looks a tad more close to 290 to me. There is still shear and some dry air to contend to which should lid it out under cat 3, hopefully. My sense is the recent Euro is pretty close to the final path which looks to have Orlando in its grasp. Don't think it makes the gulf coast. Hope they get the word in Mayport if there are ships inside.

Off to getting shutters in position for putting up on Sat as storm passing to our immediate west it looks like on Sunday evening. Going to ride this one out given the CCP virus and not wishing to pull the pin on that potential problem by finding some temp housing.

I am sure Mouton they are prepping to get the ships to leave Mayport or will shortly with the latest developments

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not quite sold on the west shifts just yet. Those models are basing it off of a weaker storm (or rather, a storm that stays weak) the storm is currently strengthening. The stronger it gets the more likely it is for that North turn to occur, and the modes may start swinging back the other direction later today.

It's not driven by the current strength. Models are trending toward a stronger ridge. Check out this ECMWF loop NDG posted in the other thread: https://i.imgur.com/VVbPPXM.gif

[CronkPSU]

I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.

this site is still a million times better than the "experts" on social media, none of us can predict it but I think this place does a great job of sharing thoughts and ideas and not claiming to be experts or demanding they have the right opinion and everyone else is wrong

[eastcoastFL]

I'm going to go ahead and place my landfall bet. I'm going with Jupiter Inlet. It's post time folks. Get your bets in now.

I’ll take Vero

[Evil Jeremy]

I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.

NHC has been adamant since the first PTC advisory that there was a very high level of uncertainty with their short and long term forecasts for this system.