ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

AF305 Mission #9 taking off now for low level recon. NOAA9 Mission #8 currently doing upper air sampling north of the storm. Should have some pretty telling data within the next few hours. These will get fed into the 00z models if I had to guess.

[DestinHurricane]

NHC needs to pull the trigger on warnings and landfall because if they wait until late tonight or tomorrow morning people will be unprepared.

[chaser1]

I'm going to go ahead and place my landfall bet. I'm going with Jupiter Inlet. It's post time folks. Get your bets in now.

its been trneding west and south

I’ll take Vero

I'm going boynton beach

I'll throw down. Hobe Sound

[jaxfladude]

So a Fay 2008 like impacts for NE Florida at worst or not?

[srva80]

I'm got Delray

[Ubuntwo]

its been trneding west and south

I’ll take Vero

I'm going boynton beach

I'll throw down. Hobe Sound

I'm thinking a close graze to PBC/Martin then a Myrtle Beach hit.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I'm going to be a bit bold here and say this thing makes landfall just south of Miami proper before moving away for a later NC hit just west or over the Outer Banks (and then maybe a Long Island/Rhode Island combo)?

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm going boynton beach

I'll throw down. Hobe Sound

I'm thinking a close graze to PBC/Martin then a Myrtle Beach hit.

I'll say Jupiter.

[Kingslayer1254]

I'm going to be a bit bold here and say this thing makes landfall just south of Miami proper before moving away for a later NC hit just west or over the Outer Banks (and then maybe a Long Island/Rhode Island combo)?

hope not

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing to 3500 in the core.

[jlauderdal]

I'm going to be a bit bold here and say this thing makes landfall just south of Miami proper before moving away for a later NC hit just west or over the Outer Banks (and then maybe a Long Island/Rhode Island combo)?

I like your gutsy call and you have model support

[pcolaman]

CAPE increasing to 3500 in the core.

So ridge will be stronger?

[BYG Jacob]

CAPE increasing to 3500 in the core.

Getting more unstable, that’s not great.

[aspen]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but is there another low level recon mission scheduled for 20z today?

[Nimbus]

6413 Ocean drive Emerald Isle.

[Aric Dunn]

trying to wrap around now.

[crimi481]

I go with Miami -Keys - then gulf

[Michele B]

Oh and my thinking is a coastal scraper from Vero Beach to about Daytona then heads towards the Carolinas

Where are they sending Cantore?

If he's there, the storm is sure NOT to be!

[chaser1]

I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.

It is the root of human nature to look within as well as to cast our eyes upon the environment around us, and seek out answers that mystify us and challenge our knowledge about all that which we see (and that which we can't). We hypothesize, use observations to analyze and disseminate, and challenge ourselves as well as each other to achieve that pinnacle of knowledge. Throughout the process, predictions are made and conclusions are reached regardless of risk of failing or ultimate failure itself. It's about the challenge to ourselves, the insatiable thirst for knowledge, and peer validation of success. So ummm, should we just throw your bet down for somewhere lame.... like landfall in Key West?

[zal0phus]

My guess is that he'll scrape the Jupiter area with his eyewall and just barely miss an official landfall, then ultimately make his true landfall somewhere between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras.