ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The mentions of the Special Advisory are interesting. They probably recognize that it is ramping up but want to see the NE quad. Anything over 90 kt and they will likely pull it - maybe to suggest a major at landfall.

It is quite plausible now of reaching major at landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

I haven’t post but I lurk. I live in Fairhope along Mobile Bay. We just lost our power about 30 minutes ago. It is just me, my 18 year old daughter, our two cats and dog. It is blowing pretty hard here and raining. I have been through my share of storms but usually I have family around me. Different tonight. I have to admit I am a little scared.

Praying for you and everyone else affected by this storm. Awful situation happening right now

[NDG]

And to think some people were saying earlier today that Sally was only going to be a weak Cat 1 at most at landfall.
Clearly there was plenty of warm SSTs on the way to the coast as reported by the buoy and not enough shear & dry air to stop her from restrengthening.

[setxweathergal64]

I haven’t post but I lurk. I live in Fairhope along Mobile Bay. We just lost our power about 30 minutes ago. It is just me, my 18 year old daughter, our two cats and dog. It is blowing pretty hard here and raining. I have been through my share of storms but usually I have family around me. Different tonight. I have to admit I am a little scared.

Well I just said a little prayer for yall. Unfortunately that's all that I can do. Hopefully you have a safe place in your home.

[Dean4Storms]

So I'm thinking as Sally makes landfall and her winds spread out with her new upward strength that the Destin/FWB area could see gusts to around 70mph as the winds also veer in off the Gulf, does that sound about right?

They were forecasting pre strengthening to 60mph.

[Sailingtime]

NHC could be hinting at a potential major with this if trends continue

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

That's my thinking. They probably would have gone with 90 kt but wanted more confirmation. If the NE quad finds winds that support 95 kt, they might go with that to make the advisory upgrade and forecast a major.

It's amazing... Yet another storm bombing out before landfall on the gulf coast. It's unreal how many times it's happened the last few years, crazy

Sadly, strengthening is becoming the "norm" for hurricanes approaching in the Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

And to think some people were saying earlier today that Sally was only going to be a weak Cat 1 at most at landfall.
Clearly there was plenty of warm SSTs on the way to the coast as reported by the buoy and not enough shear & dry air to stop her from restrengthening.

x

A lesson learned for those people NDG and again, something I always say and it always rings true each and every time:

NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in everything weather and in life!!

Also NEVER ever turn your back on any cyclone approaching landfall, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. They can always potentially change rapidly given good environmental conditions.

[NDG]

Buoy 42012 eyewall going through right now over it, winds now gusting to 89 knots.

15 Sep 11:40 pm 79 E 69G96 29.05 29.05

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

[Stormgodess]

I haven’t post but I lurk. I live in Fairhope along Mobile Bay. We just lost our power about 30 minutes ago. It is just me, my 18 year old daughter, our two cats and dog. It is blowing pretty hard here and raining. I have been through my share of storms but usually I have family around me. Different tonight. I have to admit I am a little scared.

Stay safe. Conserve your batteries on your devices. This just came out. My thoughts are with you guys.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306097130847649794

[Hurricaneman]

It seems the NW side of Sally is stronger according to recon

[wx98]

FL winds below 95 kts that time but strongest SFMR yet.

[blacktopninja]

And to think some people were saying earlier today that Sally was only going to be a weak Cat 1 at most at landfall.
Clearly there was plenty of warm SSTs on the way to the coast as reported by the buoy and not enough shear & dry air to stop her from restrengthening.

It wasn't the water temperatures. Earlier this afternoon, the upper level environment created greater forcing to build convection over the center without shearing the storm. This was due to the strength and positioning of the subtropical jet, which placed the storm in the right front quadrant. Its tucked in a negatively tilted half trough between the jet and a shortwave ridge oriented in a manner that provides fantastic divergence over and east of the storm. It's actually a pretty sweet setup.

[emeraldislenc]

This is just amazing. It seems like all the storms this year strengthen at landfall. It is happening so fast tonight just difficult to comprehend!

[NDG]

Buoy 42012 eyewall going through right now over it, winds now gusting to 89 knots.

15 Sep 11:40 pm 79 E 69G96 29.05 29.05

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

Gusting to 103 mph now.

[EquusStorm]

Haven't said much because I've been in awe all day of this ridiculous storm and tying to provide updates for family in Foley. Mom and brother are sheltered in their apartment; power is out and they're headed for the eyewall. As much as I'd like to discuss tropics especially storms so close by, this one's hitting extremely close to home and it's been an absolutely surreal and unpleasant day.

[ElectricStorm]

Haven't said much because I've been in awe all day of this ridiculous storm and tying to provide updates for family in Foley. Mom and brother are sheltered in their apartment; power is out and they're headed for the eyewall. As much as I'd like to discuss tropics especially storms so close by, this one's hitting extremely close to home and it's been an absolutely surreal and unpleasant day.

Praying for you and you family. Hope they stay safe and unharmed

[wx98]

Edge of the eye is 10 miles from the coast just west of Gulf Shores. Center is 25 miles from the coast. Eye is confirmed by radar and recon as 30 miles wide. Over 18 inches of rain in Pensacola so far.

[Bamagirl2408]

Orange Beach bouy according to Fox 10 in Mobile shows 76mph 110mph gusts and 23 ft waves. They have the outer eye wall coming in soon in Gulf Shores Orange Beach soon.

[Beef Stew]

Sally seems to have a mind of her own. While the degree of inland flooding and surge has more-or-less been established as the main threat for the past few days, I hope folks don't get caught off guard by her winds as well. A strengthening CAT 2 is no joke. I'm afraid that coupled with the continual shifts east may be leaving some residents, particularly in the western panhandle, with a nasty surprise. I for one have friends in Pensacola that were just days ago insisting that Sally was only going to be a NOLA problem. In a matter of hours, we'll be looking at our third intensifying landfalling hurricane in the N. Gulf... and it's only mid September.

[us89]

Buoy 42012 eyewall going through right now over it, winds now gusting to 89 knots.

15 Sep 11:40 pm 79 E 69G96 29.05 29.05

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

Gusting to 103 mph now.

If I’m reading the site information page right, the anemometer on that buoy is only 3.8 meters above sea level...so there’s probably a slight upward correction from that to standard 10 m winds.