ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have no objection with the 12z Euro initialization for once. That's where the LLC was at 8am.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

12Z Euro init
https://i.imgur.com/gUgkkQe.png

That's already wrong.

Is not!

[FixySLN]

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

I mean, I could be looking at something wrong, I make plenty of mistakes, but isn't Laura already further SSW of that position during initialization?

Initial position of model is not real-time position.

I'm tracking now. Thanks for straitening me out.

[supercane4867]

12z euro @24hr is SW than yesterday's 12z run at the same timeframe.

[Steve]

That's already wrong.

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

I mean, I could be looking at something wrong, I make plenty of mistakes, but isn't Laura already further SSW of that position during initialization?

12z = 7am Central Time. It's now 1:00 (almost) so you'd have to go back 6 hours to see where it was to relate it.

[AerospaceEng]

12z euro @24hr is SW than yesterday's 12z run at the same timeframe.

And stronger...

[SoupBone]

How about that 12z UKMET, it only shifted like 150 miles east, closer to King GFS

I'm gonna be bald when this is over. These swings with a 72 hour landfall are maddening. Can we go back to a time when Euro reigned king? Seriously though, I'm really curious how the Euro shakes out this next run. Lots of focus on Cameron Parish, currently.

I think we should go back to a time before we called any model "king" and just use them for what they're worth to form a consensus.

Haha touche! You know I was being sarcastic right?

How did the Euro initialize on location?

[NDG]

Through 30 hours the Euro is coming in weaker and a little further south and west than previous 0z run.

[BigB0882]

12z euro @24hr is SW than yesterday's 12z run at the same timeframe.

But what about compared to 6z when it went well into TX? If this sticks to TX and refuses to play with the other models I will continue to pull out my hair.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm gonna be bald when this is over. These swings with a 72 hour landfall are maddening. Can we go back to a time when Euro reigned king? Seriously though, I'm really curious how the Euro shakes out this next run. Lots of focus on Cameron Parish, currently.

I think we should go back to a time before we called any model "king" and just use them for what they're worth to form a consensus.

Haha touche! You know I was being sarcastic right?

How did the Euro initialize on location?

Haha had a feeling, was more just venting about that convention in general. Euro did a decent job initializing

[shiny-pebble]

Euro 4 run trend

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[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

12z euro final landfall position still appears that it will be further west than other models.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/ukS6xjM.png

That is considerably weaker than other models outside of the CMC. Maybe some good news it may not make it to major status or anything like the crazy HWRF runs show.

[NDG]

Through 48 hrs is a good 30-40 miles south & west from previous 0z run, a little weaker too.

[supercane4867]

https://i.imgur.com/ukS6xjM.png

That is considerably weaker than other models outside of the CMC. Maybe some good news it may not make it to major status or anything like the crazy HWRF runs show.

Stop using low resolution euro for intensity. Most likely it will be ~30mb deeper than shown.

[Ken711]

12z euro @24hr is SW than yesterday's 12z run at the same timeframe.

And stronger...

Looks weaker.

[tolakram]

981MB at hour 50 (weatherbell).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Let's let the run finish.

Down to 975mb and rapidly deepening by hour 54. Actually slightly stronger than the 00z at landfall.