ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Kept at 30 kt for 00z. I’m surprised.

out in the middle of nowhere. they will just wait for ascat over and over until recon.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Kept at 30 kt for 00z. I’m surprised.

Final T for 07L is only at 2.1. While there is some evidence (such as raw T jumping up to 2.6) of this system being well-organized enough to be designated, that analysis (plus the lack of a super recent ASCAT pass) makes it hard to justify an upgrade.

The storm does continue to improve though. Slim possibility this gets named at the 11pm ET update, but it's more likely that any upgrade in strength will occur after dmax (5am ET update).

[gatorcane]

Well, new HWRF has given up on the 92kt Cat 2 hurricane. Now has peak winds only 58 kts. Big change. More realistic, but likely still too strong.

Seems the HWRF usually overdoes the intensity. Why even bother with that model. If we take the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, that is good enough. Both these models are calling for hostile conditions as it approaches the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

Speaking of which.,. new ascat should be coming in the next hour or so.

[tiger_deF]

Really getting that classic comma look

[Aric Dunn]

Well, new HWRF has given up on the 92kt Cat 2 hurricane. Now has peak winds only 58 kts. Big change. More realistic, but likely still too strong.

Seems the HWRF usually overdoes the intensity. Why even bother with that model. If we take the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, that is good enough. Both these models are calling for hostile conditions as it approaches the islands.

They were also calling for no development until TD7 forced the issue lol

and they are both notorious for being too weak for small systems.. so yeah.. I think its better to do what the NHC did.. average of all the models..

[Yellow Evan]

Kept at 30 kt for 00z. I’m surprised.

out in the middle of nowhere. they will just wait for ascat over and over until recon.

I'd expect them to Dvorak hug but SAB hasn't updated its site for 2330z fixes for either 7L or Dogulas.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am shocked that this hasn't been declared a TS to be honest. It has the classic comma shape of a developing TS.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, new HWRF has given up on the 92kt Cat 2 hurricane. Now has peak winds only 58 kts. Big change. More realistic, but likely still too strong.

Seems the HWRF usually overdoes the intensity. Why even bother with that model. If we take the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, that is good enough. Both these models are calling for hostile conditions as it approaches the islands.

So far the GFS and Euro have been playing catch up all day long. So I wouldn’t call it “good enough”.

[toad strangler]

I am shocked that this hasn't been declared a TS to be honest. It has the classic comma shape of a developing TS.

SEVEN still seems quite tied up in the ITCZ. Still not out of the nest

[tiger_deF]

[Nimbus]

The shear forecast varies from model to model, 12Z HWRF has a 969 mb storm coming into the Caribbean near Martinique.

The shear is forecast to be less in model runs where the storm is either moving slower and lagging behind the SAL flow currently to its north, or the storm is modeled stronger and overcomes the SAL and seasonal Caribbean shear.

Still plenty of time before watches and warnings have to be issued for the islands.

These early systems usually dry out as they move away from the ITCZ until after 50 degrees longitude.
Kind of strange to see this modeled as a steadily strengthening system but that is just a personal climatology bias.

[GCANE]

Consistent convection on top of the CoC.
Doing real well overnight.
This is a well protected pouch.
SAL doesn't have a chance.

[IsabelaWeather]

Consistent convection on top of the CoC.
Doing real well overnight.
This is a well protected pouch.
SAL doesn't have a chance.

https://i.imgur.com/Sba8h7E.gif

Yeah has some very nice looking CDO right now. I think this could get very nice overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a couple of 35kt in there.

hard to tell. need the high res images to come out.

The Center is smack dab in the middle of the convection.. it is likely a TS especially with the prolonged convection right over the center for the last several hours.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks like a couple of 35kt in there.

hard to tell. need the high res images to come out.

The Center is smack dab in the middle of the convection.. it is likely a TS especially with the prolonged convection right over the center for the last several hours.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200721_23_48_flag.png

There might be a 35kt reading on the high-res, but the highest I'm seeing is 30kt on that image. Pretty much in line with Final T (though Raw T briefly jumped up to 3.4 before dropping back down to 2.1) and other satellite estimates.

I don't expect this to get updated until 5am ET, as predicted.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a couple of 35kt in there.

hard to tell. need the high res images to come out.

The Center is smack dab in the middle of the convection.. it is likely a TS especially with the prolonged convection right over the center for the last several hours.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200721_23_48_flag.png

There might be a 35kt reading on the high-res, but the highest I'm seeing is 30kt on that image. Pretty much in line with Final T (though Raw T briefly jumped up to 3.4 before dropping back down to 2.1) and other satellite estimates.

I don't expect this to get updated until 5am ET, as predicted.

SCAT SAT from 45 min before the ascat .. plenty of 35kts https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=20-EPAC-07E.SEVEN,20-ATL-07L.SEVEN,20-EPAC-08E.DOUGLAS,20-ATL-91L.INVEST,20-SHEM-92S.INVEST&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2020&CURRENT=20200721.221658.scatsat-1.oscat.windbarbs.tc2007LSEVEN.covg100p0.KNMI.res1km.jpg&ATCF_NAME=al072020&MO=JUL&BASIN=ATL&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2020&YR=20&STORM_NAME=07L.SEVEN&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc20/ATL/07L.SEVEN/windbarbs/oscat/1km&TYPE=windbarbs&PROD=oscat&SUB_PROD=1km

[TheStormExpert]

Well, new HWRF has given up on the 92kt Cat 2 hurricane. Now has peak winds only 58 kts. Big change. More realistic, but likely still too strong.

Seems the HWRF usually overdoes the intensity. Why even bother with that model. If we take the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, that is good enough. Both these models are calling for hostile conditions as it approaches the islands.

I wouldn’t rule out a hurricane with TD #7, though very briefly similar to Beryl in 2018.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks like a couple of 35kt in there.

hard to tell. need the high res images to come out.

The Center is smack dab in the middle of the convection.. it is likely a TS especially with the prolonged convection right over the center for the last several hours.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200721_23_48_flag.png

There might be a 35kt reading on the high-res, but the highest I'm seeing is 30kt on that image. Pretty much in line with Final T (though Raw T briefly jumped up to 3.4 before dropping back down to 2.1) and other satellite estimates.

I don't expect this to get updated until 5am ET, as predicted.

SCAT SAT from 45 min before the ascat .. plenty of 35kts https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=20-EPAC-07E.SEVEN,20-ATL-07L.SEVEN,20-EPAC-08E.DOUGLAS,20-ATL-91L.INVEST,20-SHEM-92S.INVEST&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2020&CURRENT=20200721.221658.scatsat-1.oscat.windbarbs.tc2007LSEVEN.covg100p0.KNMI.res1km.jpg&ATCF_NAME=al072020&MO=JUL&BASIN=ATL&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2020&YR=20&STORM_NAME=07L.SEVEN&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc20/ATL/07L.SEVEN/windbarbs/oscat/1km&TYPE=windbarbs&PROD=oscat&SUB_PROD=1km

https://i.ibb.co/9NQFLKx/Capture.png

If I remember correctly, SCAT SAT is guilty of being overeager on windspeed. Wouldn't be surprised to see NHC not put much weight in this pass.

I don't disagree that this storm is close to becoming Gonzalo, though. 07L looks better and better on satellite, and I expect it to become named at some point tonight. Just might need a few more hours

[Aric Dunn]

This type of sustained towers rotating around the center is not tpyical of a TD..

this is what you get when a TS is deepening..