ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Reminder that western Cuba does not have the disruptive elevation that eastern Cuba does, and we can expect consistent strengthening from here:

[SoupBone]

Stands to reason the upper level winds that sheared Marco should have a similar effect on Laura.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... co-tracker

I think that's forecast to subside/degrade.

[Hurricane Mike]

Stormy day for the Caymans per the Cayman Islands radar

[mpic]

More west = more water time.

And bigger population centers with longer evacuation times. Bad combo.

When we left for Rita it was a scramble because of the last minute slide up the coast. We met many Houston people evacuating thru east Texas because of how bad traffic was getting out of Houston. Another reason to leave early simce evacuees from other areas may add to the traffic.

Also have plenty of water with you in case you get stuck in daytime traffic and gas up today.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Stands to reason the upper level winds that sheared Marco should have a similar effect on Laura.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... co-tracker

If the upper-level winds weren't forecast to improve significantly over the next few days, then yes it would.

[cheezyWXguy]

Stormy day for the Caymans per the Cayman Islands radar
http://www.weather.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/400km_ppi.gif

Looks like the center is consolidating decently on that loop. May not strengthen much today, but it’s organizational trends will dictate how quickly it can begin strengthening in the gulf.

[Michele B]

That is why I prefer late departure but middle of the night. Allows for track changes and intensity forecasts to be taken into account. It only takes one bungled evac attempt to change your whole perspective on what makes more sense.

I like the middle of the night thing, but we have a 2 yr old and a 1 yr old, so that's pretty difficult on my wife. Granted - getting stuck in hours upon hours of traffic would be equally as bad.

Leaving in the middle of the night when they are sleepy/sleeping would be ideal. My daughter was 18 months old when we evacuated for Rita. Took 17 hours to go from Beaumont to Hemphill. Was the worst experience of my life!

Can you using back roads known only to "locals?"

I find that when a lot of people are on the roads at the same time, I make much better time using back roads known only to those of us who live in the area, or who think about them. Many people <sort of> panic and think "I'VE GOT TO GET AWAY!! I'VE GOT TO GET ON THE INTERSTATE TO MAKE GOOD TIME!!"

When in truth, you'll probably make just as good time going the back way.

Just make sure you're filled up on gas, as they will probably be few and far between them.

[nutkin517]

I like the middle of the night thing, but we have a 2 yr old and a 1 yr old, so that's pretty difficult on my wife. Granted - getting stuck in hours upon hours of traffic would be equally as bad.

Leaving in the middle of the night when they are sleepy/sleeping would be ideal. My daughter was 18 months old when we evacuated for Rita. Took 17 hours to go from Beaumont to Hemphill. Was the worst experience of my life!

Can you using back roads known only to "locals?"

I find that when a lot of people are on the roads at the same time, I make much better time using back roads known only to those of us who live in the area, or who think about them. Many people <sort of> panic and think "I'VE GOT TO GET AWAY!! I'VE GOT TO GET ON THE INTERSTATE TO MAKE GOOD TIME!!"

When in truth, you'll probably make just as good time going the back way.

Just make sure you're filled up on gas, as they will probably be few and far between them.

We were using back roads and it still took 17 hours. The thing with back roads is that you are literally in the middle of nowhere. If gas stations aren't already out of gas anyway, there aren't any nearby. So many cars ran out of gas on the side of the road. There were no bathrooms. Couldn't run the ac in the car just to try save what little gas we had.

[cheezyWXguy]

Really deep convection firing near the center now. Colder than -80C. Still small, but this could be the start...

[tolakram]

saved loop

[artist]

The sooner you get ahead of the crowd the better. The worse that could happen by leaving earlier is that you spend a few bucks for your peace of mind and safety.

That is why I prefer late departure but middle of the night. Allows for track changes and intensity forecasts to be taken into account. It only takes one bungled evac attempt to change your whole perspective on what makes more sense.

I like the middle of the night thing, but we have a 2 yr old and a 1 yr old, so that's pretty difficult on my wife. Granted - getting stuck in hours upon hours of traffic would be equally as bad.

With them as young as they are, they would probably fall asleep. A much easier drive for her than if they are awake and stuck in traffic for hours.

[supercane4867]

Looks like the NHC have decided to wait for 12z model runs before adjusting the forecast track.

[GJG]

I know its been asked and answered so I apologize.
What times does the NHC update the track forecast?


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[BobHarlem]

I know its been asked and answered so I apologize.
What times does the NHC update the track forecast?


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11 and 5 EDT (Both AM and PM) / 10 and 4 for CDT

[catskillfire51]

I know its been asked and answered so I apologize.
What times does the NHC update the track forecast?


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they just did no big changes

[Comradez]

Convection consolidating around the center now. You can see it on visible and on the long-range radar from Grand Cayman. Laura had a bit of an appearance of an elongated trough of low pressure stretching SW to NE this morning on the first few frames of visible satellite, but strong westerlies can now be seen getting sucked under new convection right around the LLC on visible satellite.

[Hurricaneman]

From what I’m seeing, the LLC seems to be moving like the UKMET has been advertising, also it looks like a new convective burst over the LLC, might initiate some pressure drops

[Portastorm]

I don't post things like this often ... but I gotta admit that I'm surprised NHC is standing pat on the Laura track, especially given the model trend this morning and how the storm has emerged off Cuba further south than what many expected.

For you folks in southeast Texas, I really feel for you. This makes for an excruciatingly difficult personal choice. God bless y'all! Be safe.

[Comradez]

One other small thing I'm noticing on the visible satellite this morning: if you look NE of Cuba, you can see lines of thunderstorms collapsing into outflow boundaries. Of course, if this occurs around the center of a developing tropical cyclone it is unfavorable for development because it means dry, subsiding air (anyone in the midwestern U.S. knows what these "downburst" gust fronts are like). But I wonder if those collapsing outflow boundaries to the NE of Cuba are helping ever-so-slightly to pump the ridge there stronger, with the effect of keeping Laura steered more towards the south than some models expected.

[BobHarlem]

I know its been asked and answered so I apologize.
What times does the NHC update the track forecast?


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they just did no big changes

Looks like they are putting the most effort into the 4PM Central/5PM EDT Update, that's when watches will likely go up for parts of the Gulf, so that will be an important one.