ATL: LAURA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

The new EPS still shows plenty of solutions still from Brownsville to Houston, I would definitely keep an eye on this along the Texas coast still.

[supercane4867]

12z euro ensemble mean is well west of operational run.

[Nederlander]

[Portastorm]

The new EPS still shows plenty of solutions still from Brownsville to Houston, I would definitely keep an eye on this along the Texas coast still.

Just saw that. In fact, some of the members seem even further west along the Texas coast than the 0z solutions. So we have the EPS solutions on the west side of the camp and everything else further east. Yikes.

[dantonlsu]

Can someone explain the difference between an ensemble run & operational run?

[ColdMiser123]

Can someone explain the difference between an ensemble run & operational run?

An operational run is a high resolution model forecast that uses the best estimates for starting conditions.

Ensembles are lower resolution forecasts of the same model with slightly different starting conditions, since observations of the atmosphere are never going to be perfect and have some uncertainty.

This gives us a spread of forecast possibilities with the ensembles.

[jaguars_22]

Forecasters can edit the conditions of the ensembles to where they can test to see where the storm would go with other conditions of the atmosphere. The mean is the main mode that they expect it to follow... I heard that on the weather channel

[cycloneye]

Closer view of the EPS ensembles:

[USTropics]

GFS-para ensembles:

[Hurricaneman]

What the models are telling us is anyone from Houma to Houston need to have a plan in place in case they have to evacuate because these model solutions are hinting at a major hurricane

The opinions are not professional, for official products use NHC, NWS and NOAA for more info

[KWT]

I think the one thing to keep in mind is how Laura has been pretty consistently to the south of where the models have been forecasting. Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but something to remember thus far.

Also appears that stronger = west by in large on these runs.

[Highteeld]

In terms of where this thing goes, the ensemble mean is what i would trust the most. treat the operational runs as just another ensemble member with slightly better resolution. Houston is very much still in play. This is a good case where probabilistic (ensemble runs) forecast communication is better than deterministic (operational runs)

[jasons2k]

I think the one thing to keep in mind is how Laura has been pretty consistently to the south of where the models have been forecasting. Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but something to remember thus far.

Also appears that stronger = west by in large on these runs.

Those two points - couldn’t have said it better myself. Pretty much anything sub 1000mb goes into Texas.

[NDG]

All important 18z models that make up the TVCN consensus, except for the CMC, along with 12z Euro are all pointing to SW LA, notice that the 18z UKMET shifted a little more to the right.

[Blinhart]

I think the one thing to keep in mind is how Laura has been pretty consistently to the south of where the models have been forecasting. Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but something to remember thus far.

Also appears that stronger = west by in large on these runs.

Those two points - couldn’t have said it better myself. Pretty much anything sub 1000mb goes into Texas.

So that would pretty much mean everything would go into Texas, you probably should say sub 975 or something like that.

[NDG]

Closer view of the EPS ensembles:

https://i.imgur.com/q40gNmZ.png

I will never forget how west biased the Euro ensembles were with Isias when it was to make the turn to the north, is something I am keeping in mind.

[Hurrilurker]

Landing in between Houston and New Orleans is about the best scenario given the circumstances, no?

[Blinhart]

Landing in between Houston and New Orleans is about the best scenario given the circumstances, no?

I wouldn't say best scenario, but most likely scenario. The Best Scenario is for this to fall completely apart, which unfortunately won't happen.

[LSU Saint]

18Z Updates

[Hurricaneman]

Landing in between Houston and New Orleans is about the best scenario given the circumstances, no?

I think you meant best plausible scenario, and I’d agree with that as it would have the least impact on major cities